English Bookie Derby Odds

SystemSystem
edited April 2009 in Horse Racing Forum
Good Morning Guys Just Surfing The Overseas Sites Checking Derby Odds As Of This Morning.......

Ladbrookes William Hill

I Want Revenge 3/1 4/1
Quality Road 5/1 5/1
Dunkirk 6/1 7/1
Friesean Fire 10/1 12/1
Pioneer Of Nile 10/1 12/1
Old Fashioned 12/1 14/1
Winwilly 16/1 25/1
Musket Man 14/1 25/1
Chocolate Candy 20/1 33/1
Mafaaz 25/1 N/a
Patena N/a N/a

Notice The Dunkirk Holding Strong And Im Thinking He Will Get In..heres My Thinking..........mafaaz Will Run Saturday And Run Poorly In The Bluegrass,billionaire Owner Michael Tabor Will Have The Envelope Sealed With Big Check Inside To Connections Of Mafaaz To Withdrawl From His Guaranteed Slot In The Derby,dunkirk Gets In Jogs Home In The Derby By 8 1/2 Lengths And America Is Shook To Its Knees With This Devasting Performance..........are You Buying In Or What.?????????? Flashbacks Of Arazi Are Heard In The Stands..remember That Super Stiff.lol...2y.o. Super Horse....pletcher/gomez Smiling In Winners Circle.....

Comments

  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    I hope people bet IWR like crazy !!! Without his Air Power and running against horses with some speed how good will he be ??? I am tossing him and his 19 year old rider.... no thanks. He peaked too early in the Gotham I will pass.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    There's a reason that no unraced 2yo has won the Derby since the 1800's. I wouldn't get my hopes up regarding Dunkirk. He may well get in, but winning is a whole 'nother matter. He has even less foundation than Curlin did heading into the 2007 Derby.
  • Unknown
    edited April 2009
    CAT............THOSE things of the past are just that in my mind i do understand the two year old angle..but big brown only had 3 races and romped in the derby..i no his 2y.o. romp at saratoga on the turf....if this horse is in which im pretty sure he will be i think he is live as can be.....another thing after the bluegrass and arkansas derby this saturday if its determined he will be in ,watch the anouncement gomez makes he dont want to ride bafferts plug if he can get on dunkirks back.......im keeping a very open mind about this derby i have been thinking giacamo kind of derby...eibar coa bragging today about how well musket man galloped out in illinois derby said his horse will get a mile and a quarter no problem....
  • hue21998hue21998 Banned
    edited April 2009
    I think i posted this before from the LA Times if there still any credence in it
    Looking to handicap the Derby? Follow this 10-step program
    Commentary by Kevin Modesti
    LOS ANGELES DAILY NEWS
    LOS ANGELES -- Sometimes, the best horse wins the Kentucky Derby. More often, the horse with the swiftest victories in the most prestigious prep races waltzes into Churchill Downs and is tripped up by his pedigree, his preparation or the bad karma that comes with being favored.
    Of the major-race winners, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Cape Town and Real Quiet pass eight of the 10 tests, meaning they're qualified for Derby glory.

    That's the premise behind what we modestly call the Ten Commandments for Derby Handicapping, which are presented here again.

    Starting in 1992, every Derby winner has met at least eight of our 10 criteria, and only '96 winner Grindstone failed to meet nine or 10 of 10. Five of the past six winners scored better on our checklist than the post-time Derby favorites they defeated.

    We have a good idea who's running in the May 2 Derby -- major race winners Cape Town, Event of the Year, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Indian Charlie, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop, as well as Artax, Chilito, Comic Strip, Hanuman Highway, Old Trieste, Parade Ground, Shot of Gold and Yarrow Brae.

    Now, let's see how the contenders measure up. The big, stone tablets, please:

    1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective "dosage index," shows the stamina to win a 1 1/4-mile race.

    Of the 1998 horses, Favorite Trick, Real Quiet and Yarrow Brae have dosage indexes on the high (wrong) side of 4.00.

    2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season -- rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings.

    Favorite Trick was the top 2-year-old in '97. Nobody else in the Derby was within 10 pounds, although Real Quiet, Old Triest, Artax and Cape Town didn't miss by much.

    3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds.

    Demerits for Indian Charlie, Event of the Year, Chilito, Shot of Gold and Yarrow Brae.

    4. Throw out horses who didn't win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in '67.

    Bad news for Shot of Gold (who fails on four other criteria anyway).

    5. Prefer horses who had three or four races -- no more, no less -- between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since '84 had three or four.

    Favorite Trick had two races following his long winter rest. Victory Gallop and Old Trieste had two. Comic Strip had five. Lil's Lad will miss the Derby after chipping an ankle in the Blue Grass Stakes -- his fifth start of '98.

    6. Toss out any horse who didn't prep in a 1 1/8-mile race.

    Old Trieste ran a mile at Santa Anita earlier in the month. He's a talented horse who can't possibly be ready for the Derby.

    7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winner.

    Well, this is no fun: Every Derby candidate meets the criterion this time.

    8. Don't be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May.

    This is good news for fans of Favorite Trick (third in the Arkansas Derby) and Real Quiet and Artax (second and third in the Santa Anita Derby).

    9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown.

    This is a weakness for Event of the Year (with Northern California king Russell Baze riding), Hanuman Highway (David Flores), Chilito (Gary Boulanger) and Yarrow Brae (Willie Martinez).

    And:

    10. Don't bet on the post-time favorite.

    The Daily Racing Form lists Santa Anita Derby winner Indian Charlie as a 5-2 favorite. It's a dubious honor seeing that no favorite has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in '79.

    So, who's qualified to wear the roses?

    Nobody's a perfect 10-for-10.

    The most suspect of the big-name horses in the race are undefeated Indian Charlie and Jim Beam Stakes winner Event of the Year (each met only six of 10 standards) and Arkansas Derby winner Victory Gallop and Comic Strip (each only seven for 10).

    Of the major-race winners, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Cape Town and Real Quiet pass eight of the 10 tests, meaning they're qualified for Derby glory. And Artax meets nine of the 10 criteria, meaning you've got to decide if his dull finish in the Santa Anita Derby was just an off day or indicated a distance limitation.

    Recent history says one of those five will be the next Derby winner.


    All Contents © Copyright 1998 Lexington Herald-Leader. All Rights Reserved
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    Draynay brings up a potentially critical point, in that IWR is ridden by 19 year-old Joe Talamo, who has never ridden in the Derby before. That cannot be construed as anything but a negative. Also, there is the Mullins angle to consider as well. Kentucky Derby starters are under some serious surviellance, and he may not be able to do the same things he's been doing with IWR up to this point (assuming that's anything at all). Mullins has had a few Derby starters in the past, and they haven't fared too well (though IWR is clearly the highest-regarded of taht group heading into the race). I believe Buddy Gil ran 5th several years back for Mullins' best Derby finish.
  • hue21998hue21998 Banned
    edited April 2009
    Your both right on the point for sure, and also about the juicing. Mullins is certainly informed enough to know the rules in NY even before his horse shipped in. That distraction may have been created for just that, distracting attention from something else. As far as the 19 year old, do you think the other jocks would even allow the race to be won by him. Case in point when outsmarted smarty jones, certainly the best horse in the field that stakes day failed.
  • Unknown
    edited April 2009
    General Info.................the Late Bloomer Is Hold Me Back.......possibilitys Of War Emblem Or Charismatic ????? This Colt Is Peaking At The Right Time And Under The Radar......another One For The Mix.....cant Wait To Get A Prop Bet Sheet In The Racebook When I Get To Vegas..
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