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2009 Kentucky Derby Statistics: Experimental Free Handicap, Sire Lines & Dosage Index
Listed below are male horses within the top 10 pounds of the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH). The 1 filly that is listed is a possible contenders for the Kentucky Derby as of this writing.
Horses ranked within 10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another country and have a Dosage Index of 4.00 or less are considered the dual qualifiers.
Dual Qualifiers have statistically shown that they have a better chance at winning the Derby.
Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs.
12 of the last 22 winners (55%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
9 of the last 14 winners (64%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
6 of the last 9 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
Only 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999] and Giacomo [2005]), have had a Dosage Index above 4.00.
Even though the aforementioned 4 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (18 years to be exact), the percentage of 4 out of 68 (1940-2008) is just 6% overall.
Even if you consider 4 out of the last 18 years it is still a low figure of 22% of the winners that had a DI above 4.00.
Probably more important, helpful or relevant in this day and age is a current Average Dosage Index figure instead of just considering the 4.00 threshold exclusively.
The average DI since 1940 is 2.21
The average DI in the past 11 years is 3.08 and that includes REAL QUIET'S 5.29, CHARISMATIC'S 5.22 AND GIACOMO'S 4.33.
The average DI from 2000 to 2008 is 2.59.
Weight HORSE Sire/Damsire SIRE LINE DI
126 MIDSHIPMAN Unbridled's Song/Avenue of Flags RAISE A NATIVE 2.37
124 VINEYARD HAVEN Lido Palace/Aloha Prospector RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
124 STARDOM BOUND (f) Tapit/Tarr Road BOLD RULER 3.36
123 SQUARE EDDIE Smart Strike/El Gran Senor RAISE A NATIVE 3.40
122 STREET HERO Street Cry/Summer Squall Retired
121 OLD FASHIONED Unbridled's Song/by Meadowlake RAISE A NATIVE 5.22
120 DONATIVUM Cadeaux Genereux/Warning HYPERION 1.50
120 PIONEEROF THE NILE Empire Maker/Lord At War RAISE A NATIVE 3.89
119 WESTPHALIA Danehill Dancer/Lyphard NORTHERN DANCER 2.40
118 CORONET OF A BARON Pure Prize/Time for a Change NORTHERN DANCER 1.91
118 I WANT REVENGE Stephen Got Even/Roy BOLD RULER 3.00
118 TERRAIN Sky Mesa/Forty Niner BOLD RULER 2.20
117 BIG DRAMA Montbrook/Notebook BUCKPASSER 3.00
117 CHARITABLE MAN Lemon Drop Kid/Saint Ballado RAISE A NATIVE 2.06
116 BEETHOVEN Sky Mesa/Carson City BOLD RULER 5.86
116 BELIEVE IN HOPE Thunder Gulch/Mr. Greeley RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
116 CHOCOLATE CANDY Candy Ride/Seattle Slew RAISE A NATIVE 2.08
116 DEL CONTE Point Given/Flying Continental RAISE A NATIVE 1.67
116 RUN AWAY AND HIDE City Zip/Runaway Groom Retired
116 SOUTHERN EXCHANGE Exchange Rate/Woodman NORTHERN DANCER 2.69
116 WEST SIDE BERNIE Bernstein/Gilded Time NORTHERN DANCER 1.80
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2009 Kentucky Derby Statistics: Experimental Free Handicap, Sire Lines & Dosage Index
Listed below are male horses within the top 10 pounds of the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH). The 1 filly that is listed is a possible contenders for the Kentucky Derby as of this writing.
Horses ranked within 10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another country and have a Dosage Index of 4.00 or less are considered the dual qualifiers.
Dual Qualifiers have statistically shown that they have a better chance at winning the Derby.
Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs.
12 of the last 22 winners (55%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
9 of the last 14 winners (64%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
6 of the last 9 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
Only 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999] and Giacomo [2005]), have had a Dosage Index above 4.00.
Even though the aforementioned 4 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (18 years to be exact), the percentage of 4 out of 68 (1940-2008) is just 6% overall.
Even if you consider 4 out of the last 18 years it is still a low figure of 22% of the winners that had a DI above 4.00.
Probably more important, helpful or relevant in this day and age is a current Average Dosage Index figure instead of just considering the 4.00 threshold exclusively.
The average DI since 1940 is 2.21
The average DI in the past 11 years is 3.08 and that includes REAL QUIET'S 5.29, CHARISMATIC'S 5.22 AND GIACOMO'S 4.33.
The average DI from 2000 to 2008 is 2.59.
Weight HORSE Sire/Damsire SIRE LINE DI
126 MIDSHIPMAN Unbridled's Song/Avenue of Flags RAISE A NATIVE 2.37
124 VINEYARD HAVEN Lido Palace/Aloha Prospector RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
124 STARDOM BOUND (f) Tapit/Tarr Road BOLD RULER 3.36
123 SQUARE EDDIE Smart Strike/El Gran Senor RAISE A NATIVE 3.40
122 STREET HERO Street Cry/Summer Squall Retired
121 OLD FASHIONED Unbridled's Song/by Meadowlake RAISE A NATIVE 5.22
120 DONATIVUM Cadeaux Genereux/Warning HYPERION 1.50
120 PIONEEROF THE NILE Empire Maker/Lord At War RAISE A NATIVE 3.89
119 WESTPHALIA Danehill Dancer/Lyphard NORTHERN DANCER 2.40
118 CORONET OF A BARON Pure Prize/Time for a Change NORTHERN DANCER 1.91
118 I WANT REVENGE Stephen Got Even/Roy BOLD RULER 3.00
118 TERRAIN Sky Mesa/Forty Niner BOLD RULER 2.20
117 BIG DRAMA Montbrook/Notebook BUCKPASSER 3.00
117 CHARITABLE MAN Lemon Drop Kid/Saint Ballado RAISE A NATIVE 2.06
116 BEETHOVEN Sky Mesa/Carson City BOLD RULER 5.86
116 BELIEVE IN HOPE Thunder Gulch/Mr. Greeley RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
116 CHOCOLATE CANDY Candy Ride/Seattle Slew RAISE A NATIVE 2.08
116 DEL CONTE Point Given/Flying Continental RAISE A NATIVE 1.67
116 RUN AWAY AND HIDE City Zip/Runaway Groom Retired
116 SOUTHERN EXCHANGE Exchange Rate/Woodman NORTHERN DANCER 2.69
116 WEST SIDE BERNIE Bernstein/Gilded Time NORTHERN DANCER 1.80
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Copyright © 2009 Full Card Reports - Horse Racing Daily Reports. All rights reserved.
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