Lexington Stakes play
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Keeneland - Race 9
#2 Omniscient (6/1 ml)
Asmussen shipper has run extremely well in all three career starts, beating next-out 10 length winner Montecore in his debut before winning 2 straight around two turns, most recently on the Louisiana Derby undercard. That race was quite strong, as they went to the half-mile pole almost TWO full seconds faster than Papa Clem got the half-mile in the La Derby, and it was also over a full second faster to the 6-furlong mark. Omniscient was sitting right off those fractions while completely in hand, and he's shown in both route starts that he's capable of finishing quite well. Also worth noting that Friesan Fire got a 104 Beyer for winning the La Derby, while Omniscient got a91 for the allowance race. That's bullshit, considering that it took Friesan Fire an extra 6 seconds to get the final sixteenth, and Omniscient was already 40 yards into that distance. So either Friesan Fire's Beyer is too high, or Omniscient's is too low. And considering that La Derby second-place finisher Papa Clem came back to win the Arkansas Derby last weekend, it's probably the latter. As for Omniscient's current condition, he's been training very sharply over the Keeneland polytrack, and of course Asmussen has always done very well here. Expecting a good showing from this talented colt. Meanwhile, the 9/5 ml favorite Square Eddie is returns here from an injury in a desperate attempt to make the Derby. He's already set on graded earnings, so he's obviously just tuning up here. I'm sure they'd like to win with him, but no way will they empty the tank here (or have him 100% cranked) when the real goal is just two weeks away. Throw in the fact that Square Eddie is the only "Derby horse" in the race (complete with front-page article on the Racing Form), and he'll undoubtedly be a huge underlay here. Great spot to play against him with an underrated, up-and-coming colt like Omniscient.
HRT record:
55 for 191 (29%)
$467.80 mutuels ($8.51 avg)
#2 Omniscient (6/1 ml)
Asmussen shipper has run extremely well in all three career starts, beating next-out 10 length winner Montecore in his debut before winning 2 straight around two turns, most recently on the Louisiana Derby undercard. That race was quite strong, as they went to the half-mile pole almost TWO full seconds faster than Papa Clem got the half-mile in the La Derby, and it was also over a full second faster to the 6-furlong mark. Omniscient was sitting right off those fractions while completely in hand, and he's shown in both route starts that he's capable of finishing quite well. Also worth noting that Friesan Fire got a 104 Beyer for winning the La Derby, while Omniscient got a91 for the allowance race. That's bullshit, considering that it took Friesan Fire an extra 6 seconds to get the final sixteenth, and Omniscient was already 40 yards into that distance. So either Friesan Fire's Beyer is too high, or Omniscient's is too low. And considering that La Derby second-place finisher Papa Clem came back to win the Arkansas Derby last weekend, it's probably the latter. As for Omniscient's current condition, he's been training very sharply over the Keeneland polytrack, and of course Asmussen has always done very well here. Expecting a good showing from this talented colt. Meanwhile, the 9/5 ml favorite Square Eddie is returns here from an injury in a desperate attempt to make the Derby. He's already set on graded earnings, so he's obviously just tuning up here. I'm sure they'd like to win with him, but no way will they empty the tank here (or have him 100% cranked) when the real goal is just two weeks away. Throw in the fact that Square Eddie is the only "Derby horse" in the race (complete with front-page article on the Racing Form), and he'll undoubtedly be a huge underlay here. Great spot to play against him with an underrated, up-and-coming colt like Omniscient.
HRT record:
55 for 191 (29%)
$467.80 mutuels ($8.51 avg)
Comments
Square Eddie made a big, wide move and looked to be roaring off to an impressive win, but then he just stopped cold. Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey on ESPN were commenting that he needed the race for fitness purposes, and that's true, but if he's cratering at the 1 1/16-mile Lexington distance then it's awfully hard to see him getting 1 1/4 miles just two weeks later. Looks like a complete throwout in the Derby, as expected.