Daily Derby Update for the 22nd
fbwinners
Senior Member
I would be greatly appreciated if we didn't make this thread a Quality Road thread as we did yesterday. Please post info regarding contenders and other articles found on the net, not personal opinions on how far QR is going to win the derby.
Regards, FB
Horses Now Stabled at Churchill Downs:
On April 12, Chocolate Candy worked five in :59.20 (3/77) at SA.
On April 21, Chocolate Candy breezed a mile in 1:42.00 (1/1) at CD.
On April 18, Desert Party breezed five in 1:00.20 (6/28) at CD.
On April 21, Flat Out, who's unlikely to make the Derby field, breezed five in 1:03.20 (16/19) at CD.
On April 21, Flying Private breezed five in 1:01.20 (7/19) at CD.
On April 14, I Want Revenge breezed four on a muddy track in :50.00 (18/25) at CD.
On April 21, I Want Revenge breezed five in 1:01.60 (8/19) at CD.
On April 19, Mine That Bird breezed five in 1:01.00 (1/2) at SUN.
On April 18, Musket Man breezed six in 1:13.00 (1/3) at CD.
On April 19, Papa Clem breezed five on a good track in 1:04.60 (25/28) at CD.
On April 15, Pioneerof the Nile worked four in :46.20 (1/39) at SA.
On April 21, Pioneerof the Nile breezed five in 1:00.80 (4/19) at CD.
On April 18, Regal Ransom breezed five in :59.80 (4/28) at CD.
Horses Not Yet Stabled at Churchill Downs:
On April 10, Dunkirk breezed four in :48.00 (1/7) at PMM.
On April 18, Dunkirk worked five in :59.90 (1/12) at PMM.
Dunkirk will arrive at Churchill next Tuesday.
On April 8, Friesan Fire breezed five in 1:00.80 (6/28) at KEE.
On April 14, Friesan Fire breezed five in 1:00.40 (4/23) at KEE.
On April 19, Friesan Fire breezed a mile 1:39.60 (1/1) at KEE.
Friesan Fire is scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Friday.
On April 14, Mr. Hot Stuff worked four in :48.00 (6/21) at SA.
On April 20, Mr. Hot Stuff worked six in 1:12.20 (2/6) at SA.
Mr. Hot Stuff is set to arrive at Churchill on Thursday.
On April 10, Quality Road breezed five on the training track in 1:02.00 (10/18) at BEL.
On April 17, Quality Road breezed six on the training track in 1:12.03 (1/6) at BEL.
Quality Road will arrive at Churchill next Tuesday.
On April 21, Win Willy breezed four in :51.20 (1/1) at OP.
Win Willy is expected at Churchill on Thursday.
Others
Advice, winner of the Grade II Coolmore Lexington, is scheduled to ship to Churchill Downs today and work there on Monday. A decision on whether he'll be entered in the Derby next Wednesday will then be made.
General Quarters, winner of the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass, is at Churchill and is scheduled to work Thursday.
Hold Me Back, second in the Blue Grass, is expected today at Churchill from Keeneland.
Square Eddie, third in the Lexington, was vanned to Churchill from Keeneland on Tuesday. No word on when he'll work.
Summer Bird, second in the Grade II Arkansas Derby, is set to arrive at Churchill today.
West Side Bernie, who's reportedly rebounded from a case of colic, has been at Churchill for over a week and should work soon if all is well.
Regards, FB
Horses Now Stabled at Churchill Downs:
On April 12, Chocolate Candy worked five in :59.20 (3/77) at SA.
On April 21, Chocolate Candy breezed a mile in 1:42.00 (1/1) at CD.
On April 18, Desert Party breezed five in 1:00.20 (6/28) at CD.
On April 21, Flat Out, who's unlikely to make the Derby field, breezed five in 1:03.20 (16/19) at CD.
On April 21, Flying Private breezed five in 1:01.20 (7/19) at CD.
On April 14, I Want Revenge breezed four on a muddy track in :50.00 (18/25) at CD.
On April 21, I Want Revenge breezed five in 1:01.60 (8/19) at CD.
On April 19, Mine That Bird breezed five in 1:01.00 (1/2) at SUN.
On April 18, Musket Man breezed six in 1:13.00 (1/3) at CD.
On April 19, Papa Clem breezed five on a good track in 1:04.60 (25/28) at CD.
On April 15, Pioneerof the Nile worked four in :46.20 (1/39) at SA.
On April 21, Pioneerof the Nile breezed five in 1:00.80 (4/19) at CD.
On April 18, Regal Ransom breezed five in :59.80 (4/28) at CD.
Horses Not Yet Stabled at Churchill Downs:
On April 10, Dunkirk breezed four in :48.00 (1/7) at PMM.
On April 18, Dunkirk worked five in :59.90 (1/12) at PMM.
Dunkirk will arrive at Churchill next Tuesday.
On April 8, Friesan Fire breezed five in 1:00.80 (6/28) at KEE.
On April 14, Friesan Fire breezed five in 1:00.40 (4/23) at KEE.
On April 19, Friesan Fire breezed a mile 1:39.60 (1/1) at KEE.
Friesan Fire is scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Friday.
On April 14, Mr. Hot Stuff worked four in :48.00 (6/21) at SA.
On April 20, Mr. Hot Stuff worked six in 1:12.20 (2/6) at SA.
Mr. Hot Stuff is set to arrive at Churchill on Thursday.
On April 10, Quality Road breezed five on the training track in 1:02.00 (10/18) at BEL.
On April 17, Quality Road breezed six on the training track in 1:12.03 (1/6) at BEL.
Quality Road will arrive at Churchill next Tuesday.
On April 21, Win Willy breezed four in :51.20 (1/1) at OP.
Win Willy is expected at Churchill on Thursday.
Others
Advice, winner of the Grade II Coolmore Lexington, is scheduled to ship to Churchill Downs today and work there on Monday. A decision on whether he'll be entered in the Derby next Wednesday will then be made.
General Quarters, winner of the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass, is at Churchill and is scheduled to work Thursday.
Hold Me Back, second in the Blue Grass, is expected today at Churchill from Keeneland.
Square Eddie, third in the Lexington, was vanned to Churchill from Keeneland on Tuesday. No word on when he'll work.
Summer Bird, second in the Grade II Arkansas Derby, is set to arrive at Churchill today.
West Side Bernie, who's reportedly rebounded from a case of colic, has been at Churchill for over a week and should work soon if all is well.
Comments
The top 3 spots seem to be already taken so the question really is who will finish 4th.
With the Kentucky Derby just 11 days away, it's time to get serious.
Quality Road and I Want Revenge turned in the most eye-catching prep performances this spring, but a Derby victory by any one of a half-dozen other 3-year-olds would also be no great surprise.
Given the depth of this year's field, handicappers may need more help than usual in sorting through the contenders. Following are notes on several trends bettors may or may not find useful.
Juvenile record
The level a horse performed at as a 2-year-old has become increasingly irrelevant. Of the last 10 Derby winners, only Street Sense won a graded-stakes race at two. In fact, of the other nine, only Giacomo even ran in a 2-year-old graded race. (He finished second in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity.)
This year's field likely will include only five horses who won graded races as juveniles, among them Grade I winners Pioneerof the Nile and Square Eddie. Many of the top choices are relative late-developers
who not only didn't win a graded stakes at two, but had trouble winning a race of any kind. I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters and Chocolate Candy, for example, were a combined 6-for-25 last year.
Sales horses vs. homebreds
Given all the publicity the commercial breeding industry receives in racing publications, people can be excused for assuming sales horses dominate at the sport's highest level. This, however, is not the case. For example, horses listed as having been sold at auction as a weanling, yearling and/or juvenile accounted for fewer than half (47 percent) of all U.S.-bred Grade I winners over the past three years (2006-2008). The vast majority of the remaining 53 percent were homebreds still racing for their original owner/breeder.
Homebred runners have been on a recent roll in the Kentucky Derby, winning four of the last five editions of the race with Smarty Jones, Giacomo, Barbaro and Street Sense. The homebred forces this year include I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire, four horses who may well go off as the top four betting choices.
Pedigree matters
Horses descending tail-male from Mr. Prospector have had a lot of recent success in the Derby, winning eight of the last 14 runnings. This year there could be as many as 11 Mr. Prospector-line horses in the starting gate, with Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile sure to be among the favorites.
Working in the Mr. Prospector line's favor is the fact that nearly all its 2009 Derby starters were sired by stallions who either already have produced a Kentucky Derby winner or won a Triple Crown race themselves. These include Quality Road (Elusive Quality), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), Desert Party (Street Cry), Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker), Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus), Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Summer Bird (Birdstone). Square Eddie and Papa Clem are sons of Smart Strike, sire of 2007 Preakness winner Curlin.
When Spectacular Bid won the 1979 Run for the Roses, it marked the seventh Derby win in 10 years for the Bold Ruler male line. In the 30 years since, the line has won only one additional Derby, that by Swale in 1984. This year, with A.P. Indy and his sons continuing the resurgence of the Bold Ruler line, there are three descendants of the 1957 Preakness winner among the expected starters: I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire and General Quarters. All three figure to receive considerable backing.
Other sire lines represented at this year's Derby include Storm Cat (Hold Me Back and West Side Bernie), Blushing Groom (Musket Man), Buckpasser (Advice), Majestic Prince (Win Willy) and In Reality/Man o' War (Mr. Hot Stuff).
FB
Advice is owned by WinStar Farm and tentatively scheduled to work on April 27. Join in the Dance, stands 21st on the list of graded-stakes money won and would need a defection from the prospective field to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Pletchers third Kentucky Derby hopeful Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smiths Dunkirk, is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs from Palm Meadows on April 28. Pletcher is scheduled in the same day. Edgar Prado has the mount on Dunkirk.
CHOCOLATE CANDY The Sid and Jenny Craig Trusts Chocolate Candy walked the shedrow at Barn 42 a day after working a mile in 1:42.
Galen May, assistant to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, said the colt would return to the track in the morning. Hollendorfer is scheduled to return to Louisville on Saturday and Chocolate Candy is slated for his final pre-Derby work on Monday or Tuesday.
DESERT PARTY/REGAL RANSOM Both of the Godolphin hopefuls for Kentucky Derby 135 went about their business before the renovation break on Wednesday.
With exercise rider Bob Chapman handling both colts, Regal Ransom galloped a mile and a quarter and then Desert Party visited the starting gate and galloped a mile and a half.
Trainer Saeed bin Suroor is scheduled to be in Louisville on Saturday when the final works for the colts are scheduled. A decision from Sheikh Mohammed on which horses jockeys Ramon Dominguez and Alan Garcia will ride is expected Thursday.
FLAT OUT Oxbow Racings Flat Out was good and frisky Wednesday morning according to trainer Charles Scooter Dickey. Flat Out had worked five furlongs in 1:03.80 on Tuesday.
FLYING PRIVATE Robert Baker and William Macks Flying Private walked the shedrow at Barn 44 a day after working five furlongs in 1:01.20 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
Robby Albarado, who was aboard for the work, has the riding assignment in Kentucky Derby 135.
FRIESAN FIRE Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farms Friesan Fire, winner of three consecutive graded stakes at Fair Grounds, is scheduled to ship to Churchill Downs from keeneland on Friday afternoon.
Trained by Larry Jones and scheduled to be ridden by Gabriel Saez, Friesan Fire will be housed in Barn 45 with Monday, April 27 slated as his work day.
GENERAL QUARTERS Owner-trainer Tom McCarthy sent General Quarters out for a mile and a half gallop before the renovation break with exercise rider Julie Sheets in the saddle.
McCarthy plans to work his Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) winner five furlongs in the morning at 7 oclock (all times EDT) with Sheets aboard.
Julien Leparoux will ride the Sky Mesa colt in Derby 135.
HOLD ME BACK WinStar Farms Hold Me Back is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs on Wednesday from Keeneland.
Trained by Bill Mott, Hold Me Back will be stabled in Barn 19.
Kent Desormeaux, who rode Hold Me Back to a victory in the Lanes End (Grade II) and a runner-up finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I), has the Derby riding assignment.
I WANT REVENGE IEAH Stables, David Lanzman and Puglisi Racings I Want Revenge walked the shedrow at Barn 24 a day after working five furlongs in 1:01.60.
Bobby Troeger, assistant to trainer Jeff Mullins, said I Want Revenge would return to the track Thursday morning. Mullins is scheduled to return to Louisville on Saturday with I Want Revenge having his final pre-Derby work on Tuesday.
MINE THAT BIRD Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equines Mine That Bird, a midnight arrival at Churchill Downs, backtracked once around with exercise rider Charlie Figueroa up before the renovation break Wednesday morning.
Trainer Bennie Chip Woolley Jr. said that Mine That Bird would gallop the next four days and then work Monday morning with jockey Calvin Borel getting aboard for the first time.
I just wanted him to get the kinks out from the trip this morning, Woolley said.
Fourth in the Sunland Derby in his most recent start, Mine That Bird worked five furlongs in 1:01 at Sunland Park on Sunday before beginning his journey by van the next day to Louisville.
Woolley, a former quarter horse trainer, is hobbling around on crutches, the result of a motorcycle mishap.
Ive got a plate and 12 screws in there, Woolley said of his right leg that sustained multiple fractures. I was riding my chopper and hit some gravel and took a spill. Ive been on crutches for two months and have another two months to go.
Woolley attended the Kentucky Derby as a spectator in the 1980s.
I said I would never come back to the Derby unless I had a horse, Woolley said. I left the decision to the owners (about the Derby) and I was really hoping they would come.
You dream all your life of getting here and I will make that walk (with the horses to the paddock for the Derby).
MR. HOT STUFF WinStar Farms Mr. Hot Stuff is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs from his Southern California base on Thursday afternoon.
Trained by Eoin Harty, Mr. Hot Stuff worked six furlongs in 1:12.20 at Santa Anita on Monday. Mr. Hot Stuff, who will be housed in Barn 41, will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who has been aboard for the colts past four starts.
MUSKET MAN Eric Fein and Vic Carlsons Musket Man galloped a mile and five-eighths shortly after the track opened at 6 a.m. Wednesday with exercise rider Salvador Dominguez up.
Trained by Derek Ryan, Musket Man is scheduled to work Saturday.
PAPA CLEM Bo Hirschs Papa Clem galloped a mile and a half before the renovation break with exercise rider Nate Quinonez up.
Rafael Bejarano, who rode Papa Clem to victory in the Arkansas Derby (Grade II) has the Kentucky Derby assignment. Trained by Papa Clem is scheduled to work Saturday.
PIONEEROF THE NILE Zayat Stables Pioneerof the Nile walked the shedrow at Barn 33 on Wednesday morning, a day after working five furlongs in 1:00.80.
He is doing great this morning, trainer Bob Baffert said. He will jog in the morning and stand in the gate.
Garrett Gomez has the mount on Pioneerof the Nile.
QUALITY ROAD Edward P. Evans Quality Road, winner of the Fountain of Youth (Grade II) and Florida Derby (Grade I), is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs on April 28.
SQUARE EDDIE J. Paul Reddams Square Eddie, a Tuesday afternoon arrival at Churchill Downs, made his first appearance on the Churchill Downs track, jogging once around accompanied by a pony shortly before 7 a.m.
Exercise rider Tony Romero was aboard Square Eddie, who arrived from Keeneland on Tuesday afternoon. Leandro Mora is overseeing Square Eddies preparation for trainer Doug ONeill, who is scheduled to come to Louisville on Sunday.
Square Eddie will gallop in the morning and will work Saturday or Sunday, Mora said.
No riding assignment has been confirmed on Square Eddie, who ran third in last Saturdays Coolmore Lexington Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland.
SUMMER BIRD K.K. and Vilasini Jayaramans Summer Bird arrived at Churchill Downs at 4:30 Wednesday morning after an all-out van ride from Oaklawn Park and set up shop in Barn 42, Stall 11.
After the renovation break, trainer Tim Ice led the son of Birdstone to the track to jog a mile under jockey Chris Rosier.
We left Hot Springs about 3 yesterday afternoon, so it took us 12 ½ hours, Ice said. He is going to work Friday after the break. He will go six furlongs and the owners will be here.
A former assistant to Cole Norman and Morris Nicks, Ice is no stranger to Churchill Downs.
The last time I was here was 2003 with Beaus Town for the Aristides, Ice said. We just got nipped at the wire by a Steve Asmussen horse, Mountain General.
It is pretty exciting to be here and pretty exciting to have a Derby horse in my first year of training.
WEST SIDE BERNIE George and Lori Halls West Side Bernie galloped a mile and three-quarters before the renovation break with trainer Kelly Breen aboard.
Breen plans to work the Wood Memorial (Grade I) runner-up on Saturday.
WIN WILLY Jer-Mar Stables Win Willy, winner of the Grade II Rebel at Oaklawn Park on March 14 and most recently fourth in the Arkansas Derby (Grade II), is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs on Thursday.
Trained by Mac Robertson and scheduled to be ridden by Cliff Berry, Win Willy will be stabled in Barn 45.
Quality Roads quarter crack, I Want Revenge's lervel of competition, Pioneer of the Nile synthetic to dirt. This is a dep, quality field, the likes we haven't seen in years. I believe that about half the field has the capability to win this race. Bet the chalk Draynay, more for the rest of us.
Am I new ? You know who my pick is... who is yours and why ?
I'm sorry cat got your tongue ? Are you picking a winner this year or just cracking on me? If you can't pick a winner keep reading and we will help you. There are some good handicappers here so don't worry.:thumbup1: