Interesting Derby article from Brisnet
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from Brisnet:
Top contenders PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) and I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) both worked well at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, with Pioneer recording his first move over the strip and Revenge his second. Nine days remain until the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Star enigma -- Pioneerof the Nile's training activity will be heavily scrutinized due to his lack of experience on dirt tracks, and the Zayat Stables' homebred made a favorable impression when breezing five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 4/5 under exercise rider Joe Steiner.
"He looked good -- he skipped right over it," trainer Bob Baffert commented.
That's good news for his fans, and Pioneerof the Nile will likely continue to train well at Churchill as Baffert readies him for Derby Day. Nobody's better at it than Baffert, and Pioneerof the Nile owns a refuse-to-lose attitude. But since it's impossible to simulate race conditions in morning workouts, the jury will remain out about his dirt ability until around 6:20 p.m. (EDT) on May 2.
Pedigree doesn't provide a definitive answer. Mineshaft, the 2003 Horse of the Year, wasn't nearly the same horse on turf that he became on dirt during his championship season. Last year, Adriano proved ineffective on dirt, finishing 19th in the Derby, but he was a graded stakes winner on turf and synthetics. And guess what -- they're both by A.P. Indy out of Mr. Prospector mares.
The same contrasts are present in Pioneer's pedigree. His sire, Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, loved the dirt, but he's thrown horses that are better on turf or synthetics than dirt. There are both dirt and turf specialists in his female family. It would be a moot point if every good horse ran well on any surface.
That isn't the case. Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) is terrific on dirt or synthetic, Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) is top-class on only the latter. These examples don't mean anything for Pioneerof the Nile. It all comes down to how he handles dirt during the race.
The debate will rage, "he'll love the dirt" or "he's better on synthetics," and it's a big part of the drama in this year's Derby build-up. That's the beauty of horse racing -- we all have an opinion. I think I know the answer to Friday's 8TH race at Keeneland (Cherokee Artist can't lose).
Revenge mode -- I Want Revenge breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 on Tuesday. In his first move under the Twin Spires last week, he completed a half-mile in :50 over a muddy track. Joe Talamo, who has never ridden in the Derby, traveled to Churchill for both works aboard the possible favorite.
I Want Revenge's BRIS Speed ratings increased dramatically when he shipped to New York. In his final three starts in Southern California, he registered Speed numbers of 86, 91 and 95. He was getting faster, but those figs are subpar for a serious Kentucky Derby contender. When the Jeff Mullins-trained colt shipped east, he posted a 113 in the Gotham S. (G3) and a 109 in the Wood Memorial (G1).
By contrast, PAPA CLEM's (Smart Strike) Speed ratings did not improve significantly outside of California. He still ran well, recording a second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and a victory in the Arkansas Derby (G2), but he received 96 BRIS Speed rating when making his stakes debut, a close second to Pioneerof the Nile, in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2). He got a 94 in the Louisiana Derby and a 100 in the Arkansas Derby, which would be a natural improvement for a horse making his third stakes start.
What does this mean? I Want Revenge has run faster on dirt than synthetics; Papa Clem performs about the same on both.
The big question surrounding I Want Revenge is whether he can run back to his remarkable victory in the Wood Memorial. He overcame so much trouble, missing the break and altering course in the stretch after being stopped in traffic, that his critics will claim that he ran his Derby race that afternoon and won't be able to overcome adverse circumstances again at Churchill Downs. And who did I Want Revenge beat in New York?
I can see trying to beat him, but I Want Revenge will be the fastest horse in the field based on Speed ratings. And he was super impressive in his two prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
Low-key approach -- With the action heating up at Churchill Downs, two big guns -- QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) and DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) -- will stay away from the commotion for a while. Quality Road will work once more at Belmont Park, and Dunkirk's final drill will take place on either Friday or Saturday at Palm Meadows, his winter base. Both colts are scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Tuesday.
It used to be that the Derby winner had to work over the track, but we all know what's happened to historical Derby trends this century -- they've been smashed like peanuts. Funny Cide (2003) and Giacomo (2005) didn't work over the track, and the top two finishers in this year's Florida Derby (G1) will be fine elsewhere.
Quality Road exited the race with a quarter-crack, and nobody likes to see their Derby horse suffering from a foot problem, but hoof specialist Ian McKinlay insisted Wednesday that he's completely healed from the setback. Quality Road is training like a sound horse, recording a six-furlong bullet move in 1:12 last Friday and a five-furlong breeze seven days earlier, and Jimmy Jerkens is an excellent horseman. He's got a big shot with his first Derby starter.
After turning in a sensational move on the far turn, Dunkirk was no match through the stretch for Quality Road in the Florida Derby, but the late runner galloped right past his rival after crossing the wire. The Coolmore gray owns unlimited potential, but is he too experienced? The thrice-raced colt didn't start as a juvenile and he's never raced outside the confines of Gulfstream Park. Dunkirk is still a threat to run by them all.
Jones factor -- Larry "Cowboy" Jones has left his mark the last two years, saddling Hard Spun and Eight Belles to runner-up finishes in the Derby, and both horses were overlooked in the wagering, with Hard Spun at 10-1 and Eight Belles at 13-1. He's back in the same spot this year with FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy), who won't be any higher than the sixth choice next Saturday, and the well-bred colt may have the ability to get Jones over the hump in his final year of training.
Unbeaten in three starts this year, Friesan Fire swept the Louisiana Derby series at Fair Grounds, improving in each outing. People were more impressed with runner-up Patena (Seeking the Gold) in his season opener, a 1 1/2-length tally in the Lecomte S. (G3), but Friesan Fire began to get his due following a two-length score in the Risen Star S. (G3). The bay colt earned his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (100) that afternoon, and he proceeded to decimate his rivals in the March 14 Louisiana Derby, winning off by 7 1/4 lengths while registering a 103 Speed rating.
The colt had been in serious training since the fall, so Jones decided to freshen up Friesan Fire for the main engagement. As a result of the seven-week layoff, Friesan Fire's been out of the limelight, but these are the same tactics Jones employed with Hard Spun, training him into the Derby off a six-week rest. Count on Friesan Fire being ready for his best on Derby Day.
With the defection of speed horses like The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) and Old Fashioned, Quality Road and REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) are being mentioned as possible pacesetters in the Derby. But what about Friesan Fire? Watch his previous races on video -- the Kentucky-bred owns plenty of early speed. Jockey Gabriel Saez really works to force him off the pace a couple of times, and Friesan Fire's earned century-topping BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings.
Hard Spun rated off the pace in his final two Derby preps, and I expected to see him employ the same tactics on Derby Day. Instead, he was three lengths up after the opening half-mile. Don't be surprised if Friesan Fire comes out hustling from the start.
Fillers -- They may not have a chance, but they're lining up as expected, creating potential traffic problems for legitimate contenders. Nothing will stop their connections from dreaming, so we get the opportunity for more bumper-car action in a 20-horse field.
FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus), who got drubbed in the Arkansas Derby, will bring a seven-race losing streak into the Derby, posting his last victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight in August. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas will insist that he deserves the chance -- no horse has ever won the Derby sitting in the barn.
MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) was a classy Canadian juvenile over the Polytrack at Woodbine. This year, he's finished second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Park Derby. It was either the Kentucky Derby or a stakes race at Zia Park. SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) is being pushed along too fast after breaking his maiden two starts back and recording a non-threatening third in the Arkansas Derby. But how could his connections explain not giving him the opportunity on Derby Day?
JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) is also part of this crowd. The speedy colt held for second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but his other races are not pretty, including a disappointing effort in the NATC Futurity. He'll probably be looking for a spot to land after the opening three-quarters.
Top contenders PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) and I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) both worked well at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, with Pioneer recording his first move over the strip and Revenge his second. Nine days remain until the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Star enigma -- Pioneerof the Nile's training activity will be heavily scrutinized due to his lack of experience on dirt tracks, and the Zayat Stables' homebred made a favorable impression when breezing five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 4/5 under exercise rider Joe Steiner.
"He looked good -- he skipped right over it," trainer Bob Baffert commented.
That's good news for his fans, and Pioneerof the Nile will likely continue to train well at Churchill as Baffert readies him for Derby Day. Nobody's better at it than Baffert, and Pioneerof the Nile owns a refuse-to-lose attitude. But since it's impossible to simulate race conditions in morning workouts, the jury will remain out about his dirt ability until around 6:20 p.m. (EDT) on May 2.
Pedigree doesn't provide a definitive answer. Mineshaft, the 2003 Horse of the Year, wasn't nearly the same horse on turf that he became on dirt during his championship season. Last year, Adriano proved ineffective on dirt, finishing 19th in the Derby, but he was a graded stakes winner on turf and synthetics. And guess what -- they're both by A.P. Indy out of Mr. Prospector mares.
The same contrasts are present in Pioneer's pedigree. His sire, Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, loved the dirt, but he's thrown horses that are better on turf or synthetics than dirt. There are both dirt and turf specialists in his female family. It would be a moot point if every good horse ran well on any surface.
That isn't the case. Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) is terrific on dirt or synthetic, Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) is top-class on only the latter. These examples don't mean anything for Pioneerof the Nile. It all comes down to how he handles dirt during the race.
The debate will rage, "he'll love the dirt" or "he's better on synthetics," and it's a big part of the drama in this year's Derby build-up. That's the beauty of horse racing -- we all have an opinion. I think I know the answer to Friday's 8TH race at Keeneland (Cherokee Artist can't lose).
Revenge mode -- I Want Revenge breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 on Tuesday. In his first move under the Twin Spires last week, he completed a half-mile in :50 over a muddy track. Joe Talamo, who has never ridden in the Derby, traveled to Churchill for both works aboard the possible favorite.
I Want Revenge's BRIS Speed ratings increased dramatically when he shipped to New York. In his final three starts in Southern California, he registered Speed numbers of 86, 91 and 95. He was getting faster, but those figs are subpar for a serious Kentucky Derby contender. When the Jeff Mullins-trained colt shipped east, he posted a 113 in the Gotham S. (G3) and a 109 in the Wood Memorial (G1).
By contrast, PAPA CLEM's (Smart Strike) Speed ratings did not improve significantly outside of California. He still ran well, recording a second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and a victory in the Arkansas Derby (G2), but he received 96 BRIS Speed rating when making his stakes debut, a close second to Pioneerof the Nile, in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2). He got a 94 in the Louisiana Derby and a 100 in the Arkansas Derby, which would be a natural improvement for a horse making his third stakes start.
What does this mean? I Want Revenge has run faster on dirt than synthetics; Papa Clem performs about the same on both.
The big question surrounding I Want Revenge is whether he can run back to his remarkable victory in the Wood Memorial. He overcame so much trouble, missing the break and altering course in the stretch after being stopped in traffic, that his critics will claim that he ran his Derby race that afternoon and won't be able to overcome adverse circumstances again at Churchill Downs. And who did I Want Revenge beat in New York?
I can see trying to beat him, but I Want Revenge will be the fastest horse in the field based on Speed ratings. And he was super impressive in his two prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
Low-key approach -- With the action heating up at Churchill Downs, two big guns -- QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) and DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) -- will stay away from the commotion for a while. Quality Road will work once more at Belmont Park, and Dunkirk's final drill will take place on either Friday or Saturday at Palm Meadows, his winter base. Both colts are scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Tuesday.
It used to be that the Derby winner had to work over the track, but we all know what's happened to historical Derby trends this century -- they've been smashed like peanuts. Funny Cide (2003) and Giacomo (2005) didn't work over the track, and the top two finishers in this year's Florida Derby (G1) will be fine elsewhere.
Quality Road exited the race with a quarter-crack, and nobody likes to see their Derby horse suffering from a foot problem, but hoof specialist Ian McKinlay insisted Wednesday that he's completely healed from the setback. Quality Road is training like a sound horse, recording a six-furlong bullet move in 1:12 last Friday and a five-furlong breeze seven days earlier, and Jimmy Jerkens is an excellent horseman. He's got a big shot with his first Derby starter.
After turning in a sensational move on the far turn, Dunkirk was no match through the stretch for Quality Road in the Florida Derby, but the late runner galloped right past his rival after crossing the wire. The Coolmore gray owns unlimited potential, but is he too experienced? The thrice-raced colt didn't start as a juvenile and he's never raced outside the confines of Gulfstream Park. Dunkirk is still a threat to run by them all.
Jones factor -- Larry "Cowboy" Jones has left his mark the last two years, saddling Hard Spun and Eight Belles to runner-up finishes in the Derby, and both horses were overlooked in the wagering, with Hard Spun at 10-1 and Eight Belles at 13-1. He's back in the same spot this year with FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy), who won't be any higher than the sixth choice next Saturday, and the well-bred colt may have the ability to get Jones over the hump in his final year of training.
Unbeaten in three starts this year, Friesan Fire swept the Louisiana Derby series at Fair Grounds, improving in each outing. People were more impressed with runner-up Patena (Seeking the Gold) in his season opener, a 1 1/2-length tally in the Lecomte S. (G3), but Friesan Fire began to get his due following a two-length score in the Risen Star S. (G3). The bay colt earned his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (100) that afternoon, and he proceeded to decimate his rivals in the March 14 Louisiana Derby, winning off by 7 1/4 lengths while registering a 103 Speed rating.
The colt had been in serious training since the fall, so Jones decided to freshen up Friesan Fire for the main engagement. As a result of the seven-week layoff, Friesan Fire's been out of the limelight, but these are the same tactics Jones employed with Hard Spun, training him into the Derby off a six-week rest. Count on Friesan Fire being ready for his best on Derby Day.
With the defection of speed horses like The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) and Old Fashioned, Quality Road and REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) are being mentioned as possible pacesetters in the Derby. But what about Friesan Fire? Watch his previous races on video -- the Kentucky-bred owns plenty of early speed. Jockey Gabriel Saez really works to force him off the pace a couple of times, and Friesan Fire's earned century-topping BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings.
Hard Spun rated off the pace in his final two Derby preps, and I expected to see him employ the same tactics on Derby Day. Instead, he was three lengths up after the opening half-mile. Don't be surprised if Friesan Fire comes out hustling from the start.
Fillers -- They may not have a chance, but they're lining up as expected, creating potential traffic problems for legitimate contenders. Nothing will stop their connections from dreaming, so we get the opportunity for more bumper-car action in a 20-horse field.
FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus), who got drubbed in the Arkansas Derby, will bring a seven-race losing streak into the Derby, posting his last victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight in August. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas will insist that he deserves the chance -- no horse has ever won the Derby sitting in the barn.
MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) was a classy Canadian juvenile over the Polytrack at Woodbine. This year, he's finished second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Park Derby. It was either the Kentucky Derby or a stakes race at Zia Park. SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) is being pushed along too fast after breaking his maiden two starts back and recording a non-threatening third in the Arkansas Derby. But how could his connections explain not giving him the opportunity on Derby Day?
JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) is also part of this crowd. The speedy colt held for second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but his other races are not pretty, including a disappointing effort in the NATC Futurity. He'll probably be looking for a spot to land after the opening three-quarters.
Comments
I am willing to bet no horse is better than my top 3 ... Quality Road, Dunkirk and MM. I am going to throw in CC, Mr.Hot Stuff and General Quarters and call it a day. The rest of the horses you can have.