Betting the Triple Crown prop
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Someone on another forum was asking whether he should lay -1200 on the "No" for the Triple Crown prop, citing the fact that no horse has pulled it off in 30 years. First off, that price is much lower in Vegas, something like +675 on the "Yes" last i saw.
But i think a play on the "Yes" may be in order (even at that price), and it doesn't have anything to do with whether a horse will win the Triple Crown or not. The resaon is simply that after the Derby has been run, you can always find prop asking "Will Whatshisname win the Preakness and Belmont", with the "Yes" being offered at MUCH lower odds than what's being offered before the race. So for that reason, you can take the "Yes" before the Derby, then turn around and bet the "No" after the Derby for a nice arbitrage.
If the Derby winner is one of the favorites, and looks reasonably impressive in winning the race, the post-Derby "Yes" could be +300, perhaps even lower. If memory serves, i think Big Brown was around +190 to win the Triple Crown after he won the Derby last year. So there's a decent chance you can get the "No" price at somewhere around -400 (perhaps lower), and of course have still some margin for error, which is important. As long as the Derby winner doesn't come up with some kind of injury after the race, you're pretty much safe. Barring injury, the worst-case scenario would be a mediocre performance by a non-favorite (such as Giacomo a few years ago), but even then, it would likely come back no worse than 5/1 on the "Yes", so you could still get off the bet without taking a loss. So basically you're just sweating a Grindstone-type injury.
You won't get rich, but it's a low-risk shot at some free money.
But i think a play on the "Yes" may be in order (even at that price), and it doesn't have anything to do with whether a horse will win the Triple Crown or not. The resaon is simply that after the Derby has been run, you can always find prop asking "Will Whatshisname win the Preakness and Belmont", with the "Yes" being offered at MUCH lower odds than what's being offered before the race. So for that reason, you can take the "Yes" before the Derby, then turn around and bet the "No" after the Derby for a nice arbitrage.
If the Derby winner is one of the favorites, and looks reasonably impressive in winning the race, the post-Derby "Yes" could be +300, perhaps even lower. If memory serves, i think Big Brown was around +190 to win the Triple Crown after he won the Derby last year. So there's a decent chance you can get the "No" price at somewhere around -400 (perhaps lower), and of course have still some margin for error, which is important. As long as the Derby winner doesn't come up with some kind of injury after the race, you're pretty much safe. Barring injury, the worst-case scenario would be a mediocre performance by a non-favorite (such as Giacomo a few years ago), but even then, it would likely come back no worse than 5/1 on the "Yes", so you could still get off the bet without taking a loss. So basically you're just sweating a Grindstone-type injury.
You won't get rich, but it's a low-risk shot at some free money.
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