Andy Beyer's Selection
fbwinners
Senior Member
This is a part of his article on DRF.
I Want Revenge is a standout in the Derby on the basis of his 2-for-2 dirt record. His losses in California are largely irrelevant. He has the necessary speed, which he displayed by dueling for the lead and winning the Gotham Stakes. But he showed other dimensions to his talent when he broke several lengths behind the field in the Wood Memorial, encountered traffic trouble in the stretch, and still managed to win. He possesses the versatility and stamina that are important assets at Churchill Downs.
After the formidable Quality Road was knocked out of the Derby by a hoof problem, there appear to be only two challengers with a plausible chance to beat the favorite: Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. Friesan Fire won three straight stakes in Louisiana, and he showed his readiness for the Derby with a sizzling five-furlong workout this week. One possible knock against him is that he earned his only excellent speed figure on a sloppy track. Dunkirk definitely has the talent, based on his second-place finish behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He owns the second-best speed figure in the field. However, the $3.7 million yearling has raced three times and never started as a 2-year-old. He is bucking a formidable precedent: No horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882.
Since these two rivals are anything but iron-clad propositions, bettors playing trifectas and superfectas can take a chance with longshots who have respectable dirt form. Papa Clem ran decently to win the Arkansas Derby. Desert Party and Regal Ransom both have enough speed and seasoning to fare better than the other shippers from Dubai who have flopped at Churchill Downs. But this much about the Derby seems clear (at least to me): I Want Revenge will win it, and none of the synthetic- track specialists will finish close to him.
I Want Revenge is a standout in the Derby on the basis of his 2-for-2 dirt record. His losses in California are largely irrelevant. He has the necessary speed, which he displayed by dueling for the lead and winning the Gotham Stakes. But he showed other dimensions to his talent when he broke several lengths behind the field in the Wood Memorial, encountered traffic trouble in the stretch, and still managed to win. He possesses the versatility and stamina that are important assets at Churchill Downs.
After the formidable Quality Road was knocked out of the Derby by a hoof problem, there appear to be only two challengers with a plausible chance to beat the favorite: Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. Friesan Fire won three straight stakes in Louisiana, and he showed his readiness for the Derby with a sizzling five-furlong workout this week. One possible knock against him is that he earned his only excellent speed figure on a sloppy track. Dunkirk definitely has the talent, based on his second-place finish behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He owns the second-best speed figure in the field. However, the $3.7 million yearling has raced three times and never started as a 2-year-old. He is bucking a formidable precedent: No horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882.
Since these two rivals are anything but iron-clad propositions, bettors playing trifectas and superfectas can take a chance with longshots who have respectable dirt form. Papa Clem ran decently to win the Arkansas Derby. Desert Party and Regal Ransom both have enough speed and seasoning to fare better than the other shippers from Dubai who have flopped at Churchill Downs. But this much about the Derby seems clear (at least to me): I Want Revenge will win it, and none of the synthetic- track specialists will finish close to him.
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