Thoughts on the Mervyn Leroy Handicap
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Also, i wanted to mention Rail Trip in today's Mervyn Leroy Handicap (Race 8). Not an official play because he's 4/5 on the morning line, and could be bet well below that, but there is SOME chance that he'll go off at even-money or better here today, in which case i'll bet him without hesitation. I'm currently of the opinion that Rail Trip is the best horse in the country. The jury is still out on how far he wants to run, but he's demonstrated repeatedly that he can handle a mile (or today's 1 1/16th) with his eyes closed, so no problem there. He also doesn't require the lead, which you can see for yourself if you watch the replay of his second career start (Dec 20). Also of note, his regular rider Valdivia stated during Rail Trip's three-race Santa Anita win streak that Rail Trip doesn't even like the Pro-Ride surface that much, and prefers the Hollywood Park cushion track. The reason i mention Rail Trip today is that his last race was very bizarre, as he opened up his customary big lead in the stretch with Valdivia simply sitting on him the whole way, never moving a muscle. Dakota Phone (also entered here) was gaining quickly near the wire, and just missed by a nose as Valdivia nearly blew Rail Trip's undefeated record (not to mention his stakes debut). Probably wasn't a huge concern to either Ellis or Valdivia because they're clearly taking it very easy on this guy at least up until the Hollywood Gold Cup (his first shot at the BC Classic distance of 1 1/4 miles), but the way it looks on paper suggests that Rail Trip was faltering through the stretch, which is not even close to being true. People will see that, and also notice that Aggie Engineer (who has a higher last-race Beyer than Rail Trip) and Ball Four may apply some pace pressure today, and conclude that Rail Trip is ripe for an upset. To me, that looks like an illusion, for the reasons mentioned above. Incidentally, if it turns out that Rail Trip doesn't want 1 1/4 miles, i think that Ellis can turn him back and win the Sprint. I've thought that since his two Hollywood races.. Of course, there's also the BC Dirt Mile these days, so who knows what race he'll eventually be pointed for. But right now, it's the Classic until proven otherwise. Currently 40/1 @ the Wynn, last i saw.
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