Triple Crown notes (and a Belmont pick) from Steve Davidowitz
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from Trackmaster:
Some of the things we might have learned from the first two legs of the Triple Crown is that we do not know as much about (A) why horses improve or fall off form than we previously believed and (B) how to really watch a horse race.
Consider:
* MINE THAT BIRD improves by more than 15 lengths over his previous races at Sunland Park to launch one of the most devastating rallies in Triple Crown history.
* Mine That Bird proves his spectacular Derby performance was no fluke by running nearly as well in the Preakness without the benefit of an inside rail favoring trip.
* PIONEEROF THE NILE looks to be the Derby winner at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch. Even when he is passed by Mine That Bird in a blink of an eye, Pioneer resolutely keeps on keepin on for a gritty second place finish over MUSKET MAN and PAPA CLEM.
Unfortunately for Pioneerof the Niles backers, the son of Empire Maker fizzles in the Preakness as if he is a spent horse. This despite Hall of Fame trainer Bob Bafferts sincere belief that Hes going to fire another big one.
* RACHEL ALEXANDRA draws the outside post and her rail-running jockey Calvin Borel shows HIS versatility by putting her in the race while accepting a wide running lane and she goes on from there to control the pace and the race all the way to the wire.
* For those who believe erroneously that Mine That Bird was going to catch Rachel if the Preakness were a bit longer, go watch the video tapecarefully.
Once Mine That Bird gets within a length of the filly at the wire, she stretches out under her own power to open up three lengths in the gallop out without any serious urging by Borel. He was not going to catch that filly if they were going to go around the track again, twice!
Meanwhile, the Derby betting favorite FRIESAN FIRE, who was nicked up pretty badly while finishing near the rear of the pack in the Kentucky Derby somehow is pronounced fit enough to try again by trainer Larry Jones, who previously has earned a stellar reputation in evaluating his own horses.
The result: Friesan Fire turns in a worse performance in the Preakness and after a vet exam that probably should have occurred before the Preakness, it is discovered that Friesan Fire has injuries that will require surgery to bring him back to the races in the fall.
By the way, doesnt Chip Woolley remind you slightly of the unlikely star of the Republican Presidential campaign, Joe the Plumber?
At least they both came out of nowhere to grab the media spotlight as if they had been discovered as extras on a cowboy movie set. But that is as far as it goes. The key difference between them also is noticeable.
Chip Woolley won his race and the respect of his peers, while Joe the Plumber has become just another stale flavor of the week.
Moreover, Mr. Woolley showed his skill with a racehorse by believing that his compactly built gelding had gained so much conditioning from the Sunland Derby that he was able to convince the horses owners to forego the $400,000 Lone Star Derby and focus instead on the prize of all racing prizes, the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
If I wore a 10 gallon hat like Bennie J. Woolley Jr, Id have to take it off in salute to him. Any way you want to look at it, he did fantastic work. And, oh by the way, had Mine that Bird gone to Lone Star Park there is no guarantee he would have beaten MYSTICAL POWER, the rapidly emerging 3 year old trained by Baffert, who finished in front of Mine That Bird in the Sunland Derby and looked the part of a serious Grade- horse winning the Lone Star Derby on May 9.
While Bob Baffert will never admit it, he may have started the wrong horse in the Preakness.
As for the Belmont, no one should be surprised that Rachel Alexandra is not going to compete. Her connections realize she will have so many options at more realistic distances during the summer and Fall. After all, a race against undefeated 4 year old super miss, ZENYATTA would hold as much appeal as the Belmont to racing fans and industry officials, even though there will be fewer people to see it and far less press coverage.
Waiting to run Rachel against male horses in the Travers at Saratoga, Aug. 29 would be a fine alternative that could - and I say could - spike interest to a greater extent than the Belmont, given the way that 1-1/4 mile mid-summer classic could bring together the Belmont winner, whomever that turns out to be along with some of the missing 3 year old male horses who were forced to skip the Kentucky Derby, including perhaps the talented Florida Derby winner, QUALITY ROAD.
Waiting for her to show up in the $5 million Breeders Cup Classic, or the $2 million BC Distaff Classic, is going to be a futile vigil.
After owner Jess Jackson saw what happened to his two time Horse of the Year CURLIN in the 2008 Breeders Cup Classic on the synthetic Pro Ride track at Santa Anita last fall, I doubt seriously he will ever put Rachel Alexandra on a synthetic surface, at least not in this lifetime.
While I disagree with D. Wayne Lukass idea about shortening the Kentucky Derby to 1-1/8 miles and limiting the Belmont to 1-1/4, it is true that as a third leg in a difficult Triple Crown series, running 12 furlongs under pressure for the first and probably only time in a horses career is a prescription for early retirement for all but the most hearty of horses.
Given that the sport is hoping against hope that we will see more of these two in 2009 and beyond, the Belmont was a tough choice to turn down and now it may not attract half the crowd had the rematch of the Derby and Preakness winners occurred. Still the mutuel windows will be open and I will not be surprised to see the lightly raced and talented CHARITABLE MAN control the pace in Rachel Alexandras absence and deny jockey Calvin Borel his unprecedented private Triple Crown sweep on two different horses.
Yes, I like CHARITABLE MAN - beautifully trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and the impressive winner of the nine furlong Peter Pan stakes over the track - to win the 2009 Belmont Stakes. . . by open daylight.
Some of the things we might have learned from the first two legs of the Triple Crown is that we do not know as much about (A) why horses improve or fall off form than we previously believed and (B) how to really watch a horse race.
Consider:
* MINE THAT BIRD improves by more than 15 lengths over his previous races at Sunland Park to launch one of the most devastating rallies in Triple Crown history.
* Mine That Bird proves his spectacular Derby performance was no fluke by running nearly as well in the Preakness without the benefit of an inside rail favoring trip.
* PIONEEROF THE NILE looks to be the Derby winner at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch. Even when he is passed by Mine That Bird in a blink of an eye, Pioneer resolutely keeps on keepin on for a gritty second place finish over MUSKET MAN and PAPA CLEM.
Unfortunately for Pioneerof the Niles backers, the son of Empire Maker fizzles in the Preakness as if he is a spent horse. This despite Hall of Fame trainer Bob Bafferts sincere belief that Hes going to fire another big one.
* RACHEL ALEXANDRA draws the outside post and her rail-running jockey Calvin Borel shows HIS versatility by putting her in the race while accepting a wide running lane and she goes on from there to control the pace and the race all the way to the wire.
* For those who believe erroneously that Mine That Bird was going to catch Rachel if the Preakness were a bit longer, go watch the video tapecarefully.
Once Mine That Bird gets within a length of the filly at the wire, she stretches out under her own power to open up three lengths in the gallop out without any serious urging by Borel. He was not going to catch that filly if they were going to go around the track again, twice!
Meanwhile, the Derby betting favorite FRIESAN FIRE, who was nicked up pretty badly while finishing near the rear of the pack in the Kentucky Derby somehow is pronounced fit enough to try again by trainer Larry Jones, who previously has earned a stellar reputation in evaluating his own horses.
The result: Friesan Fire turns in a worse performance in the Preakness and after a vet exam that probably should have occurred before the Preakness, it is discovered that Friesan Fire has injuries that will require surgery to bring him back to the races in the fall.
By the way, doesnt Chip Woolley remind you slightly of the unlikely star of the Republican Presidential campaign, Joe the Plumber?
At least they both came out of nowhere to grab the media spotlight as if they had been discovered as extras on a cowboy movie set. But that is as far as it goes. The key difference between them also is noticeable.
Chip Woolley won his race and the respect of his peers, while Joe the Plumber has become just another stale flavor of the week.
Moreover, Mr. Woolley showed his skill with a racehorse by believing that his compactly built gelding had gained so much conditioning from the Sunland Derby that he was able to convince the horses owners to forego the $400,000 Lone Star Derby and focus instead on the prize of all racing prizes, the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
If I wore a 10 gallon hat like Bennie J. Woolley Jr, Id have to take it off in salute to him. Any way you want to look at it, he did fantastic work. And, oh by the way, had Mine that Bird gone to Lone Star Park there is no guarantee he would have beaten MYSTICAL POWER, the rapidly emerging 3 year old trained by Baffert, who finished in front of Mine That Bird in the Sunland Derby and looked the part of a serious Grade- horse winning the Lone Star Derby on May 9.
While Bob Baffert will never admit it, he may have started the wrong horse in the Preakness.
As for the Belmont, no one should be surprised that Rachel Alexandra is not going to compete. Her connections realize she will have so many options at more realistic distances during the summer and Fall. After all, a race against undefeated 4 year old super miss, ZENYATTA would hold as much appeal as the Belmont to racing fans and industry officials, even though there will be fewer people to see it and far less press coverage.
Waiting to run Rachel against male horses in the Travers at Saratoga, Aug. 29 would be a fine alternative that could - and I say could - spike interest to a greater extent than the Belmont, given the way that 1-1/4 mile mid-summer classic could bring together the Belmont winner, whomever that turns out to be along with some of the missing 3 year old male horses who were forced to skip the Kentucky Derby, including perhaps the talented Florida Derby winner, QUALITY ROAD.
Waiting for her to show up in the $5 million Breeders Cup Classic, or the $2 million BC Distaff Classic, is going to be a futile vigil.
After owner Jess Jackson saw what happened to his two time Horse of the Year CURLIN in the 2008 Breeders Cup Classic on the synthetic Pro Ride track at Santa Anita last fall, I doubt seriously he will ever put Rachel Alexandra on a synthetic surface, at least not in this lifetime.
While I disagree with D. Wayne Lukass idea about shortening the Kentucky Derby to 1-1/8 miles and limiting the Belmont to 1-1/4, it is true that as a third leg in a difficult Triple Crown series, running 12 furlongs under pressure for the first and probably only time in a horses career is a prescription for early retirement for all but the most hearty of horses.
Given that the sport is hoping against hope that we will see more of these two in 2009 and beyond, the Belmont was a tough choice to turn down and now it may not attract half the crowd had the rematch of the Derby and Preakness winners occurred. Still the mutuel windows will be open and I will not be surprised to see the lightly raced and talented CHARITABLE MAN control the pace in Rachel Alexandras absence and deny jockey Calvin Borel his unprecedented private Triple Crown sweep on two different horses.
Yes, I like CHARITABLE MAN - beautifully trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and the impressive winner of the nine furlong Peter Pan stakes over the track - to win the 2009 Belmont Stakes. . . by open daylight.