Good article on the pace scenario for the Belmont
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from the NY Post:
The defection of Rachel Alexandra from Saturday's Belmont Stakes could be a double-edged sword for Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.
On one hand, the gutsy little gelding gets his Derby jockey, Calvin Borel, back in the saddle. On the other, the super-fast super filly would have ensured a legitimate pace to set up Mine That Bird's late run.
Without her, there's not much speed in the 1½-mile race. Miner's Escape and Charitable Man appear to be the only two horses capable of taking the early lead, and whichever one's in front figures to be crawling along. So after half-mile fractions of 47.1 seconds in the Derby and 46.3 seconds in the Preakness, the Belmont split figures to be 48 or 49 seconds.
"That's always a concern," said Mine That Bird's trainer, Chip Woolley Jr. "But I think there will be enough pace probably to set it up OK. Because if the pace is slower, it's going to put my horse closer to the pace because he's going to run his same race regardless.
"I've always told everybody what this horse needed was to lay back there and make one short run."
After Mine That Bird rallied from last of 19 to win the Derby and last of 13 to finish second in the Preakness, beaten a diminishing length, Woolley and Borel will stick with what works.
"We're not going to alter his style to try to fit a race, because anything you change is going to take away his closing kick," Woolley said. "If you change his running style, he's not going to finish. And I'd rather be finishing than stopping."
That's why getting back Borel, who timed his move perfectly in the Derby, was a big boost.
"Not only is getting the timing right [important], but knowing where you're at in the race, and how much ground you've got to make up," Woolley said. "If you push the button too early, you could come up empty at the wire. So it's going to be imperative that we get the right trip and move at the right time, because you may not be able to get quite the head of steam up on that [deep] track.
"People think that just because it's a longer race, it will suit my horse better. But if you look at previous Belmonts, on an average, a horse that's closer to the pace tends to win. So he's got his work cut out for him."
Nick Zito's hopefuls Brave Victory and Miner's Escape worked as a team yesterday at Belmont, breezing four furlongs together in 48.66 seconds. Summer Bird went five furlongs in 1:01.89 with Kent Desormeaux up.
The defection of Rachel Alexandra from Saturday's Belmont Stakes could be a double-edged sword for Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.
On one hand, the gutsy little gelding gets his Derby jockey, Calvin Borel, back in the saddle. On the other, the super-fast super filly would have ensured a legitimate pace to set up Mine That Bird's late run.
Without her, there's not much speed in the 1½-mile race. Miner's Escape and Charitable Man appear to be the only two horses capable of taking the early lead, and whichever one's in front figures to be crawling along. So after half-mile fractions of 47.1 seconds in the Derby and 46.3 seconds in the Preakness, the Belmont split figures to be 48 or 49 seconds.
"That's always a concern," said Mine That Bird's trainer, Chip Woolley Jr. "But I think there will be enough pace probably to set it up OK. Because if the pace is slower, it's going to put my horse closer to the pace because he's going to run his same race regardless.
"I've always told everybody what this horse needed was to lay back there and make one short run."
After Mine That Bird rallied from last of 19 to win the Derby and last of 13 to finish second in the Preakness, beaten a diminishing length, Woolley and Borel will stick with what works.
"We're not going to alter his style to try to fit a race, because anything you change is going to take away his closing kick," Woolley said. "If you change his running style, he's not going to finish. And I'd rather be finishing than stopping."
That's why getting back Borel, who timed his move perfectly in the Derby, was a big boost.
"Not only is getting the timing right [important], but knowing where you're at in the race, and how much ground you've got to make up," Woolley said. "If you push the button too early, you could come up empty at the wire. So it's going to be imperative that we get the right trip and move at the right time, because you may not be able to get quite the head of steam up on that [deep] track.
"People think that just because it's a longer race, it will suit my horse better. But if you look at previous Belmonts, on an average, a horse that's closer to the pace tends to win. So he's got his work cut out for him."
Nick Zito's hopefuls Brave Victory and Miner's Escape worked as a team yesterday at Belmont, breezing four furlongs together in 48.66 seconds. Summer Bird went five furlongs in 1:01.89 with Kent Desormeaux up.