Betting Maidens
InTheFog
Senior Member
Betting Maidens is a tough bet, it's hard enough betting horses that have past performances leave alone betting something that has never ran though I have bet a few on their breeding and won a race now and then but it sure is a tough way to go.
Comments
Anyone can look at the past performances for a race, and pretty much pick out the strongest contenders. With first-time starters, there are no past performances. So a lot of people pick the horse with the fastest workouts, or the one with the best trainer. There's just a lot more to it than that. Sometimes you can get good information on unraced horses, either from private clockers, or by doing your own research. And none of that stuff is available in the Racing Form, so the vast majority of people don't have it. That can lead to solid overlays at times. Not necessarily big prices (though at times they can be), but overlays nevertheless.
How many times have you seen a horse win his debut impressively, then start as a short-priced favorite against stakes company in start #2? And how many of those same horses were 3/1 or 4/1 or 5/1 (or even higher) in their debut? You can't tell me there wasn't huge value on those horses in their first start. And the reason there was value is just what we're talking about...they had no past performances and were therefore under the radar, at least to some extent.
Not all first-time starters are going to run well. It's an inexact science. But if you do your homework, you can find some good opportunities.
Just as an example, one of the strongest plays i've ever had was on a horse named Cape Canaveral who ran an opening day at Santa Anita many years ago. I knew for a fact that he was very likely stakes-quality, before he had ever run a single race. And he went off at something like 6/1, vs. a maiden field. That's value.
They can't all be like that, unfortunately, but there are a lot of good opportunities out there. Other times, a horse may have run only once, and may have encountered some difficulty that obscured his talent. I posted about an Asmussen firster in my horses to watch thread recently. He won't look nearly as good in the Racing Form as he probably is. People will look at the PP's and assume he ran badly. Does that mean he'll win next time? Of course not. Does it mean he'll offer value next time? Probably. There's just a lot of reasons to follow maiden races. Thats' just me though. Other people like different kinds of races. To each his own.
At least this way you have a 50-50 shot of winning.Ill book anyones maiden bets all day!Tommyboy