Euro sharpie Simon Holt previews the Arc
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Always enjoy reading this guy; he does great work on the big European races...
from Sporting Life:
The 2009 renewal of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is one of the most eagerly awaited races on the Flat for some years and certainly the most eagerly awaited Arc for several seasons.
Can Sea The Stars cap this stellar season by winning the most prestigious middle-distance race in Europe?
He's just been an incredible horse this season. What a record he's built up. Of course it all began at Newmarket in the spring winning the Guineas, he went onto win the Derby, then the Eclipse and that form has worked out splendidly.
He beat Rip Van Winkle, twice a Group One winner since then, with Conduit back in third, a winner of the King George subsequently. The form just worked out beautifully.
And then on his last two starts he's been very impressive in both the Juddmonte International, and particularly I thought last time in the Irish Champion Stakes where he cut back Fame And Glory with ease in the straight.
The question mark perhaps against Sea The Stars is he has been on the go a long time and we have seen very good horses go to Longchamp and fail after hard seasons.
You think of the likes of Authorized, Generous and Reference Point and another great horse like Nashwan who was over the top very soon after the King George so it takes some doing to remain in peak form from the beginning of the Flat season to the autumn.
That will be the big test for Sea The Stars and John Oxx, who has handled this horse so beautifully all season.
I think he can do it. A mile and a half is probably at the outer range of his stamina but I was looking at the standard times when you compare Epsom and Longchamp - and it's 2:30s at Longchamp and 2:35s at Espom so the mile and a half at Longchamp actually places less emphasis on stamina than at Epsom.
He seemed to get the Epsom trip very well in the Derby and he's beaten Fame And Glory twice now. I just can't see how Aidan O'Brien's horse can turn the tables if Sea The Stars is at his best.
Obviously he's the favourite and he deserves to be, but I do believe that if he is at his best the others are playing for places.
The two that I do think could give him some sort of a race are Conduit and Vision d'Etat.
Conduit is rock solid, had a light campaign and will be fresh, was a gutsy winner in the King George - he's no chance with Sea The Stars on their Coral-Eclipse form but I don't think he was at his best that day and he'll be much sharper now.
Even so, I don't think he'll be good enough to match Sea The Stars.
Vision d'Etat has had a classic French preparation for the Arc. He won the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, beating Tartan Bearer, and then he was given the summer off reappearing at the Arc trial meeting.
He was clearly a little bit rusty behind Spanish Moon but will come on for that run and of course he ran very well in this race 12 months ago finishing fifth behind Zarkava.
The runner-up in two Arcs before is Youmzain, who finished second to Zarkava last year, running on strongly and he clearly relishes the course and disatnce at Longchamp.
He remains a near-misser and although he may well make the frame again he just always seems to find one to beat him. What's more, I just haven't been that encouraged by his last two runs.
Aidan O'Brien is very keen on Fame And Glory. As I've already said he's got two defeats behind Sea The Stars to erase this season, but he has had a lighter campaign.
He had a break between the Irish Derby and the Irish Champion Stakes last time out and if that race has brought him on again, well, conceivably he could give Sea The Stars a closer battle this time, but I think Sea The Stars has that extra bit of class.
The other two I suppose I'd better mention are Cavalryman and Stacelita.
Cavalryman is trained by Andre Fabre who has few peers around the world. Cavalryman has done little wong but I think he needs to step up on recent form.
Stacelita was beaten on merit by Dar Re Mi in the Prix Vermaille last time out in that very controversial finish, but again she's been given that French preparation and she'll be coming into this race all the better for that run in the Vermaille.
I can't see there been that much between her and Dar Re Mi, but I find it hard to imagine either being good enough to beat the mighty Sea The Stars.
from Sporting Life:
The 2009 renewal of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is one of the most eagerly awaited races on the Flat for some years and certainly the most eagerly awaited Arc for several seasons.
Can Sea The Stars cap this stellar season by winning the most prestigious middle-distance race in Europe?
He's just been an incredible horse this season. What a record he's built up. Of course it all began at Newmarket in the spring winning the Guineas, he went onto win the Derby, then the Eclipse and that form has worked out splendidly.
He beat Rip Van Winkle, twice a Group One winner since then, with Conduit back in third, a winner of the King George subsequently. The form just worked out beautifully.
And then on his last two starts he's been very impressive in both the Juddmonte International, and particularly I thought last time in the Irish Champion Stakes where he cut back Fame And Glory with ease in the straight.
The question mark perhaps against Sea The Stars is he has been on the go a long time and we have seen very good horses go to Longchamp and fail after hard seasons.
You think of the likes of Authorized, Generous and Reference Point and another great horse like Nashwan who was over the top very soon after the King George so it takes some doing to remain in peak form from the beginning of the Flat season to the autumn.
That will be the big test for Sea The Stars and John Oxx, who has handled this horse so beautifully all season.
I think he can do it. A mile and a half is probably at the outer range of his stamina but I was looking at the standard times when you compare Epsom and Longchamp - and it's 2:30s at Longchamp and 2:35s at Espom so the mile and a half at Longchamp actually places less emphasis on stamina than at Epsom.
He seemed to get the Epsom trip very well in the Derby and he's beaten Fame And Glory twice now. I just can't see how Aidan O'Brien's horse can turn the tables if Sea The Stars is at his best.
Obviously he's the favourite and he deserves to be, but I do believe that if he is at his best the others are playing for places.
The two that I do think could give him some sort of a race are Conduit and Vision d'Etat.
Conduit is rock solid, had a light campaign and will be fresh, was a gutsy winner in the King George - he's no chance with Sea The Stars on their Coral-Eclipse form but I don't think he was at his best that day and he'll be much sharper now.
Even so, I don't think he'll be good enough to match Sea The Stars.
Vision d'Etat has had a classic French preparation for the Arc. He won the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, beating Tartan Bearer, and then he was given the summer off reappearing at the Arc trial meeting.
He was clearly a little bit rusty behind Spanish Moon but will come on for that run and of course he ran very well in this race 12 months ago finishing fifth behind Zarkava.
The runner-up in two Arcs before is Youmzain, who finished second to Zarkava last year, running on strongly and he clearly relishes the course and disatnce at Longchamp.
He remains a near-misser and although he may well make the frame again he just always seems to find one to beat him. What's more, I just haven't been that encouraged by his last two runs.
Aidan O'Brien is very keen on Fame And Glory. As I've already said he's got two defeats behind Sea The Stars to erase this season, but he has had a lighter campaign.
He had a break between the Irish Derby and the Irish Champion Stakes last time out and if that race has brought him on again, well, conceivably he could give Sea The Stars a closer battle this time, but I think Sea The Stars has that extra bit of class.
The other two I suppose I'd better mention are Cavalryman and Stacelita.
Cavalryman is trained by Andre Fabre who has few peers around the world. Cavalryman has done little wong but I think he needs to step up on recent form.
Stacelita was beaten on merit by Dar Re Mi in the Prix Vermaille last time out in that very controversial finish, but again she's been given that French preparation and she'll be coming into this race all the better for that run in the Vermaille.
I can't see there been that much between her and Dar Re Mi, but I find it hard to imagine either being good enough to beat the mighty Sea The Stars.