Sunday play from DiscreetPicks.com
DiscreetCat
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Belmont - Race 6
#8 Mr. Vegas (10/1 ml)
Been waiting anxiously for this guy to be entered for a few weeks now. He was originally entered in the Pilgrim Stakes early this month, but was scratched after the race came off the grass. Here's what i had to say about him at the time:
I must be seeing things with this morning line (he was listed @ 12/1). Simply unreal. Yet another case of Beyers not telling the whole story. I honestly haven't seen many debuts better than this one. The trouble started as soon as the gates opened, as he was broke VERY slowy, then he was being steadied repeatedly while in tight as he tried to make his way through the crowd on his way up the backstretch (having already made up the lost early ground to regain touch with the pack). Never did get any room to run, at all, though you could see that Prado clearly had a ton of horse under him as he helplessly waited for an opening. I already knew the horse had won the race when i was watching this replay for the first time, and i sat here in front of my computer at the top of the stretch wondering just how in the hell he did it (didn't seem possible at the time). Finally around midstretch a small hole opened, and Prado shifted this guy pretty sharply out into the open thru another pretty tight spot, and then you could really appreciate this horse as he took off like a shot after the leaders. Still looked to be in pretty bad shape in deep stretch but he basically just put his head down and bulled his way right thru the two leaders like they were just a minor inconvenience. Reminded my of Lit De Justice a bit, and that's saying something. I know i'm being effusive in my praise here, but like i said, i was very excited by what i saw. Just looked like a man among boys out there. Speaking of which, he's a pretty big horse with what looked to be a very large stride, though he never really got to show it off too much. Didn't look like today's extra distance will be any kind of problem for him, quite the contrary in fact. Pretty tough stretchout here from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, especially considering the class jump, but i'm confident he's the best horse in the race, and like i said i think he may be even better going long. And anything resembling a clean trip won't hurt him either. Lastly, the turf course was listed as "good" when he ran, so i would have to assume the course had some water in it, though the opening quarter looks awfully fast to have been run on any kind of soft ground. It would seem to help his case here, as there's no doubt the course will be a little soft here (perhaps a lot soft), assuming they keep the race on the grass at all. Tempted to call this play turf-only, but i'd be lying if i said i wasn't going to back him on whatever surface he runs on today. Besides, if the race comes off the grass and Hushion thinks it's a problem, he'll likely be scratched anyway (UPDATE: just checked on the Belmont website and the race is indeed off the grass. No word on scratches yet). Hope they get the race into this guy because i think he may be the Juvenile Turf winner. Perhaps even the Juvenile winner, who knows. Obviously, i HIGHLY recommend watching the replay. He broke from the 2-hole but he's wearing saddlecloth #1. Have a look, and enjoy.
Nothing has changed since i wrote that, as Mr. Vegas has missed no training time, recording three drills since. The turf course is listed as soft today after the big rainstorm that went through New York yesterday (even causing the Yankee game to be cancelled), but it's sunny and clear right now, and Mr. Vegas is not currently scratched, so all systems appear go. And as mentioned above, he did win his maiden race over a course listed as "good", so i would have to assume there was some water in it at the time. The soft course may even be to his benefit here, impossible to say. And best of all, the ridiculous morning-line has hardly budged. Still think this guy may be the best 2yo grass horse in the country. If he takes to the course here and can handle the distance, i think he wins rather easily. And he may be even more cranked-up for this one than he was for the Pilgrim, since the Breeders Cup is likely out the window now.
HRT record:
62 for 222 (28%)
$530.40 mutuels ($8.55 avg)
#8 Mr. Vegas (10/1 ml)
Been waiting anxiously for this guy to be entered for a few weeks now. He was originally entered in the Pilgrim Stakes early this month, but was scratched after the race came off the grass. Here's what i had to say about him at the time:
I must be seeing things with this morning line (he was listed @ 12/1). Simply unreal. Yet another case of Beyers not telling the whole story. I honestly haven't seen many debuts better than this one. The trouble started as soon as the gates opened, as he was broke VERY slowy, then he was being steadied repeatedly while in tight as he tried to make his way through the crowd on his way up the backstretch (having already made up the lost early ground to regain touch with the pack). Never did get any room to run, at all, though you could see that Prado clearly had a ton of horse under him as he helplessly waited for an opening. I already knew the horse had won the race when i was watching this replay for the first time, and i sat here in front of my computer at the top of the stretch wondering just how in the hell he did it (didn't seem possible at the time). Finally around midstretch a small hole opened, and Prado shifted this guy pretty sharply out into the open thru another pretty tight spot, and then you could really appreciate this horse as he took off like a shot after the leaders. Still looked to be in pretty bad shape in deep stretch but he basically just put his head down and bulled his way right thru the two leaders like they were just a minor inconvenience. Reminded my of Lit De Justice a bit, and that's saying something. I know i'm being effusive in my praise here, but like i said, i was very excited by what i saw. Just looked like a man among boys out there. Speaking of which, he's a pretty big horse with what looked to be a very large stride, though he never really got to show it off too much. Didn't look like today's extra distance will be any kind of problem for him, quite the contrary in fact. Pretty tough stretchout here from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, especially considering the class jump, but i'm confident he's the best horse in the race, and like i said i think he may be even better going long. And anything resembling a clean trip won't hurt him either. Lastly, the turf course was listed as "good" when he ran, so i would have to assume the course had some water in it, though the opening quarter looks awfully fast to have been run on any kind of soft ground. It would seem to help his case here, as there's no doubt the course will be a little soft here (perhaps a lot soft), assuming they keep the race on the grass at all. Tempted to call this play turf-only, but i'd be lying if i said i wasn't going to back him on whatever surface he runs on today. Besides, if the race comes off the grass and Hushion thinks it's a problem, he'll likely be scratched anyway (UPDATE: just checked on the Belmont website and the race is indeed off the grass. No word on scratches yet). Hope they get the race into this guy because i think he may be the Juvenile Turf winner. Perhaps even the Juvenile winner, who knows. Obviously, i HIGHLY recommend watching the replay. He broke from the 2-hole but he's wearing saddlecloth #1. Have a look, and enjoy.
Nothing has changed since i wrote that, as Mr. Vegas has missed no training time, recording three drills since. The turf course is listed as soft today after the big rainstorm that went through New York yesterday (even causing the Yankee game to be cancelled), but it's sunny and clear right now, and Mr. Vegas is not currently scratched, so all systems appear go. And as mentioned above, he did win his maiden race over a course listed as "good", so i would have to assume there was some water in it at the time. The soft course may even be to his benefit here, impossible to say. And best of all, the ridiculous morning-line has hardly budged. Still think this guy may be the best 2yo grass horse in the country. If he takes to the course here and can handle the distance, i think he wins rather easily. And he may be even more cranked-up for this one than he was for the Pilgrim, since the Breeders Cup is likely out the window now.
HRT record:
62 for 222 (28%)
$530.40 mutuels ($8.55 avg)
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