Friday's Marathon

bbixler

MARATHON, the first Breeders' Cup event Breeders' Cup Marathon Santa Anita Race 3 - 1 3/4m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $500,000. Post Time: 3:35 ET



Race Synopsis

Black Astor will be sent right to the front and try to wire the field. Nite Light should be making 1st run on the pacesetter with Father Time and Mastery closing from off the pace. I expect the pace to be a lively one, which should set it up for my top 2 selections to be closing strongest in the late stages of the race.

bbixler

Wagering Strategy
In addition to the Superfecta and Pick 3 wagers in this race, it is also the first leg of the Pick 6. For those interested, I have given a recommendation for a ticket that wouldn't require a huge investment. The Pick 6 on Breeders' Cup days is usually even harder to hit than on normal racing days, so I would strongly caution against playing it unless you have a large budget and feel comfortable with that kind of investment in this wager that is hit at a very low frequency.

* Dime Superfecta: 5-6 / 3-4-5-6 / 3-4-5-6 / ALL = $8.40 for a dime wager * Dime Superfecta: 5-6 / 3-4-5-6 / ALL / 3-4-5-6 = $8.40 for a dime wager (These two wagers can be played multiple times, based on your personal budget) .

* Start a Pick 3 wager with three tickets: Ticket 1: 6 / 3-4-7-8-9-11 / 3-4-6-7-10-11 = $36 for a $1 wager Ticket 2: 6 / 4-8 / ALL = $24 for a $1 wager Ticket 3: 6 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-7 = $9 for a $1 wager .

*$2 PICK 6 TICKET: 6 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-7 / 2-4-5-6 / 9 / 7 = $72

bbixler

Fourth Selection: (4) CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Sheppard Jonathan E/Homeister R B Jr) Trainer Jonathan Sheppard and long distance performers have proven over the years to go hand in hand. Not only is Sheppard a master at developing runners on the flat as the distances increase, but the same can be said with his jumpers. This 9 year old, who is not only the elder statesman of this year’s Marathon, has also raced more times than any in the field, especially when you compare him to Mastery and Father Time, who have a combined 15 starts amongst them.

When Sheppard took over the training of Cloudy’s Knight following his eight place finish to end a very disappointing 2008 campaign, it was clear that much work had to be done to get him to regain some semblance of his excellent 2007 ledger, capped off with a nose victory in the Grade 1 Canadian International. Sheppard sent Cloudy’s Knight to the farm to enjoy a respite in the pasture. Last August it was time to start preparing him for a fall campaign.

First stop was in Kentucky Downs in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Classic. Despite having to wipe off months of rustiness, Sheppard had Cloudy’s Knight ready to win at 1 ½ miles. He did not disappoint with a decisive 2 ½ length victory. Very few trainers could accomplish this task with a 9 year old, but Sheppard is on a very short list of horseman who could do so. Next stop was the Grade 3 Sycamore at Keeneland. Most horses usually regress in their 2nd start off a long layoff, but that did not hinder Cloudy’s Knight, as he eked out a head decision over the classy Winchester and Yates Black Cat.

The question in the Marathon is if Sheppard and Cloudy’s Night have 1 more powerful effort to conquer Mastery and Father Time. I feel a good showing is in the cards but a victory would be a mild surprise. The Marathon was never really the target when he returned off the layoff. A matter of fact, Sheppard was going to enter him in the Red Smith at Aqueduct, but when he found out that the race was not at Belmont Park, which he thought it was, the decision to enter here was a better option according to him.

I’m not sure what the difference is running at Aqueuct or Belmont, but he certainly knows more than I do. I expect Cloudy’s Night to launch his rally on the far turn, but I do not feel his late kick will be enough to get the job done.