Lock Winner On Turf Only

randyf

Gulf 9th Race
2 Lentenor (lezcano) | Matz

DiscreetCat

Not a lock of course, but i do agree with you. Unfortunately, i think he'll get bet pretty hard.

randyf

can you try and give us a few pick 3s and pick 4s using this horse as a single if you have the time
lets win big today

thanks Cat

DiscreetCat

I don't have any opinion on the other races. Besides, as a general rule i wouldn't single the favorite in multi-race wagers (not that i play them very often to begin with). Most of the value in those bets come from beating a horse that many people will have singled. Doesn't necesssarily have to be the Lentenor race, but you know what i'm saying.

Lentenor i like because i expected him to improve (perhaps dramatically) on grass due to the Barbaro/Nicanor angle, and because the Matz trainees generally improve with a race or two under their belts. He did improve on grass, and frankly should've won last time except for some traffic issues. So he definitely seems to be moving forward on the new surface, and there's little doubt that Matz has been pointing him to this race for some time. Gets a cozy draw in the large field here, and figures double tough with a clean trip and any further improvement, which seems very reasonable to expect here. The problem is that his PP's look a lot better going into this race than they did the last one, and being Barbaro's brother he figures to get pounded @ Gulfstream just as Nicanor did. Perhaps he'll remain bettable due to the large field, but i tend to doubt it. We'll see.

In any case, good luck. I hope he wins big.

randyf

Discreet Cat

Thank you very much for taking the time to explain your thoughts

rhgraham

Is this the horse that raced at Aqueduct on the turf? He appeared fully extended in that start, if I have the right horse.

randyf

nice win big tri and exacta