Gary West lists his "Top 100" Derby prospects
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
Top 20 Noisemakers on the Road to the Triple Crown
Rank. Horse, Starts-wins-2nds-3rds, earnings, sire, trainer: comment
1. Lookin At Lucky, 6-5-1-0, $1,243,000, Smart Strike, Bob Baffert: The champ will probably have two starts before going to Kentucky, and one of those could be at Oaklawn or Fair Grounds.
2. Buddys Saint, 3-2-1-0, $218,600, Saint Liam, Bruce Levine: He's preparing for his return in Florida, the big colt having won two New York stakes for fun last year, and even though the Remsen was dreadfully slow, he looks as if he has superstar potential.
3. Eskendereya, 4-2-1-0, $125,700, Giants Causeway, Todd Pletcher: The improving colt whos aimed at the Fountain of Youth doesnt sparkle, but he doesnt tire either; hes going to be a major player.
4. Tiz Chrome, 2-2-0-0, $58,850, Tiznow, Bob Baffert: Unbeaten in sprints, he could improve when he stretches out Feb. 6 in the Bob Lewis Stakes.
5. Super Saver, 4-2-1-0, $171,232, Marias Mon, Todd Pletcher: The Kentucky Jockey Club winner accomplished much at 2 and so may have two starts leading up to the Derby; his trainer says he has poise to control his speed.
6. Winslow Homer, 4-3-0-1, $152,825, Unbridleds Song, Tony Dutrow: He had an ideal trip, and his Holy Bull victory wasnt especially impressive; still, he finished with good energy when challenged and it represents a good starting place for the season.
7. Jackson Bend, 7-5-2-0, $477,820, Hear No Evil, Nick Zito: Although second, he ran a superior race in the Holy Bull; hes obviously reliable and admirable, but how much better will he get and how much farther will he go?
8. Rule, 5-3-1-1, $596,700, Roman Ruler, Todd Pletcher: The speedy athletic colt, who may be rated too low here, brings War Emblem to mind; his success will obviously depend on his willingness to control his speed and, perhaps more, on the pace competition he finds down the road. This class seems to have speed in abundance.
9. Conveyance, 3-3-0-0, $104,400, Indian Charlie, Bob Baffert: He led throughout to win the San Rafael, but he looked very green doing it, switching leads three times through the stretch; that also suggests a move from synthetics to dirt could work to his advantage.
10. Dryfly, 4-3-0-0, $114,840, Jump Start, Lynn Whiting: Winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, hes in the hands of an excellent horseman, hes on probably the best path leading to Kentucky, and he just might have the talent to get there.
11. Dublin, 5-2-0-0, $228,623, Afleet Alex, D. Wayne Lukas: Since throat surgery, the Hopeful winner has strung together some solid workouts and appears to be thriving at Oaklawn Park, where hell return on Feb. 15 in the Southwest.
12. Concord Point, 1-1-0-0, $26,400, Tapit, Bob Baffert: Distance will certainly be a major question down the road for the speedy maiden winner; for the moment, hell sprint, aiming at the San Vicente on Feb. 15.
13. Tahitian Warrior, 1-1-0-0-, $21,000, Marias Mon, Saeed bin Suroor: From here, based on just one race, he looks as if he could be as talented as any horse of his generation; hes just a beautiful mover; and he would be rated much higher if he werent going to Dubai. But is he going? He has had two works since the sale.
14. Overcommunication, 1-1-0-0, Unbridleds Song, Todd Pletcher: He won his December debut in hand by five lengths and is obviously capable of much more; his trainer has a very high opinion of his potential.
15. Blind Luck, 6-4-1-1, $709,050, Pollards Vision, Jerry Hollendorfer: Among the fillies, because she appears to improve with distance, she seems most capable of challenging the boys successfully, but shell probably stay with fillies.
16. Bulldogger, 1-1-0-0, $36,000, Dixie Union, Bob Baffert: He hasnt raced since his jaw-dropping debut in August, but he could return in February, and his trainer says the colt has progressed impressively.
17. Maximus Ruler, 3-1-1-1, $53,890, Roman Ruler, Clark Hanna: He showed his talent with his runner-up finish in the Lecomte, but also his immaturity; at this point, he seems to have only a vague idea about how to be a racehorse, but if his connections can educate him, he could be a player.
18. Uptowncharlybrown, 2-2-0-0, $40,200, Limehouse, Alan Seewald: His wins have been at Tampa Bay, but hes a smooth mover who looks capable of stepping forward and taking on top company.
19. Moojab, 2-1-0-1, $29,500, Smarty Jones, Dan Peitz: He rallied smartly to win by four in New York, but then in his seasonal debut at Oaklawn, he zigged and zagged like Zoros signature; hes another who could be a player if he matures and learns quickly enough, and he should improve when he stretches out.
20. Tempted to Tapit, 4,-1-2-0, $43,340, Tapit, Steve Klesaris: In New York, he romped by more than 11 lengths in his fourth start; the mud was probably a factor, but he also appears to be improving.
Also Eligible
However foolish the process might be, the Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes. Since 1987, when I first started putting together a list of contenders or noisemakers for the road to the Triple Crown, all but four Derby winners have been in my initial top 20. The list is based more on potential than accomplishment, but while it attempts to focus on horses that might get to the Triple Crown races, it also includes some horses, sprinters and turf types mainly, who may be unlikely to arrive at the destination but could nevertheless influence the journey. Some horses I spotted as 2-year-olds and thought had considerable potential arent included here simply because Ive lost track of them or havent seen any works for them in recent months; their omission may say more about me than it does about them. And, of course, several horses already have been dropped from the list simply because theyre already on the sidelines.
Identifying potential noisemakers this early has become more and more difficult in recent years because of synthetic tracks and shifting schedules. And so why bother? Well, its not done for bragging rights I loathe braggarts -- and, of course, this list of 100 means nothing, like all such lists, no matter the imprimatur or the ego involved, when set beside the horses performances on the track, where they will ultimately and inevitably decide their true hierarchy. Still, making such a list remains an entertaining and useful endeavor, if only for self-edification -- and, of course, for investments. And so here are 21-100.
Rank. Horse, sire, trainer, comment:
21. Interactif, Broken Vow, Todd Pletcher: A strikingly handsome colt, hes very accomplished on turf, but he also has trained very well on dirt; Pletcher said he might try the talented colt on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.
22. Afleet Express, Afleet Alex, Jimmy Jerkens: He overcame trouble to win his debut impressively and appears ready for a big effort in his return Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
23. Nobles Promise, Cuvee, Ken McPeek: He has been close while racing in top company, but its hard to see a son of Cuvee going much farther effectively.
24. Drosselmeyer, Distorted Humor, Bill Mott: He began his career on turf, but he gave his best effort in his only race on dirt, winning by six; he could develop into well, a toy maker full of surprises, starting Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
25. Dave in Dixie, Dixie Union, John Sadler: He finished about two back in the Norfolk while making only his second start; so he could be a significant talent and a major player in California, where hes training for his return.
26. Eightyfiveinafifty, Forest Camp, Gary Contessa: He scored by 17 at Aqueduct and could turn out to be the best sprinter of the group, but its hard to see his being very effective at longer distances and especially at 10 furlongs.
27. DFunnybone, DWildcat, Richard Dutrow: He won two graded stakes and looked sensational in the process before capitulating on Santa Anitas synthetic surface; hes training in Florida for his return and will probably make some noise before the preps stretch out to nine furlongs.
28. Make History, Empire Maker, John Terranova: In his only start last year, the handsome colt broke poorly, raced in traffic, had to be checked and then finished with a rush to be second, losing narrowly. He has had a series of five-furlong moves in Florida and should be ready to return soon; although hes far behind and still a maiden, he could jump up from nowhere to make a racket on the road to the Triple Crown.
29. A Little Warm, Stormin Fever, Tony Dutrow: He turned heads winning the Spectacular Bid in a fairly fast time and he appears to be improving; but I still have to view his chances of stretching out with skepticism.
30. Uh Oh Bango, Top Hit, Kory Owens: The big talented colt ran second to Rule at Delta Downs, but that may be reach of talent; hell probably return to competition in Arizona.
31. Lost Aptitude, Aptitude, Dale Romans: Hes certainly one of the best of the group on turf, where he looked sensational in two starts at Churchill before losing on a yielding course at Calder, but his breeding strongly suggests he may not have to be limited to grass.
32. Mission Impazible, Unbridleds Song, Todd Pletcher: Ran well, with good energy in the lane, in his seasonal debut, and could return in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park.
33. Fly By Phil, Act of Duty, Kathleen OConnell: Never worse than second, hes reliable and consistent, regardless of the surface; he may not have the pedigree or raw talent of many here, but hes a genuine racehorse.
34. Bulls And Bears, Holy Bull, Richard Violette: He won his debut and then had a nightmarish trip in the Sanford where he was fifth, but beaten less than two lengths; hes training in Florida for his return and could develop into a player.
35. Hawaiian Springs, Stephen Got Even, Kathy Walsh: He looked very good in his first start around two turns and could develop into a prominent player in California.
36. Soaring Empire, Empire Maker, Cam Gambolati: After rallying to win his debut, he ran third in the Iroquois in only his second start; he recently worked a half-mile in Florida in preparation for his return; hes obviously a little behind, but he could make some noise later down the road.
37. Discreetly Mine, Mineshaft, Todd Pletcher: He had a terrible trip in the Spectacular Bid to finish fourth; but hell get another chance soon, perhaps in the Hutcheson or the Sam F. Davis or the Risen Star, to show his talent.
38. Brake Lights, Saint Liam, Kiaran McLaughlin: He won by more than nine lengths making his first start for McLaughlin to suggest he could be prominent on the New York road.
39. Schoolyard Dreams, Stephen Got Even, Derek Ryan: He looked very impressive in his maiden victory last November, not so much so in his more recent victory at Tampa, but the highly regarded colt obviously has considerable potential.
40. Liston, Storm Cat, Kiaran McLaughlin: The Darley colt won at Saratoga and at Keeneland, facing good company in both races; he could come up with a knockout punch while training in Florida.
41. Sidneys Candy, Candy Ride, John Sadler: He flashed considerable potential last summer at Del Mar, but so far he has failed to follow through on the promises he made; its not too late, of course, and he appears to be training well in California.
42. Kettle River, Congaree, Eoin Harty: He looked very sharp in his recent victory at Santa Anita, and he appears capable of performing on just about any surface.
43. Formaggio, Dynaformer, David Carroll: The good-looking colt won his debut at 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans despite racing wide and ducking in; hes with an excellent horseman and can only get better.
44. Homeboykris, Roman Ruler, Juan Rodriguez: He won the Champagne and ran third in the Remsen; but she showed little in the Holy Bull and already it looks as if his best accomplishments are far behind him.
45. Thank U Philippe, Proud Accolade, Martin Wolfson: He has been chasing some good ones in Eskendereya and Jackson Bend; his trainer is certainly aware of both the colts talents and limitations and wont compromise him with unrealistic ambitions; still, hes such a solid performer that hell make some noise along the way even if hes not specifically aimed at the Triple Crown.
46. Ron The Greek, Full Mandate, Tom Amoss: The pace helped his cause in the Lecomte Stakes, but he has won three of four with his powerful late move; hell try for another in the Risen Star Stakes.
47. Rule By Night, Malibu Moon, Steve Asmussen: He won by more than seven lengths last week in New York in a dominating performance that suggests big things could be ahead.
48. Colizeo, Distorted Humor, Todd Pletcher: Stalking and pouncing while winning recently by 5 1/2 at Gulfstream, he looks as if he could make some noise on the Derby trail; but he appears to be a notch below Pletchers leading prospects.
49. Hockley, A.P. Indy, Eoin Harty: Still a maiden, hes in California, but he has shown his best on dirt, finishing second to Dublin and defeating Eightyfiveinafiftyrun at Saratoga. A $560,000 purchase, hes an intriguing possibility, but for what exactly remains unclear.
50. General Maximus, Freud, Joesph Imperio: He won his debut impressively last summer with a lively clocking, and the New York-bred is set to return this weekend at Gulfstream.
Continued...
Top 20 Noisemakers on the Road to the Triple Crown
Rank. Horse, Starts-wins-2nds-3rds, earnings, sire, trainer: comment
1. Lookin At Lucky, 6-5-1-0, $1,243,000, Smart Strike, Bob Baffert: The champ will probably have two starts before going to Kentucky, and one of those could be at Oaklawn or Fair Grounds.
2. Buddys Saint, 3-2-1-0, $218,600, Saint Liam, Bruce Levine: He's preparing for his return in Florida, the big colt having won two New York stakes for fun last year, and even though the Remsen was dreadfully slow, he looks as if he has superstar potential.
3. Eskendereya, 4-2-1-0, $125,700, Giants Causeway, Todd Pletcher: The improving colt whos aimed at the Fountain of Youth doesnt sparkle, but he doesnt tire either; hes going to be a major player.
4. Tiz Chrome, 2-2-0-0, $58,850, Tiznow, Bob Baffert: Unbeaten in sprints, he could improve when he stretches out Feb. 6 in the Bob Lewis Stakes.
5. Super Saver, 4-2-1-0, $171,232, Marias Mon, Todd Pletcher: The Kentucky Jockey Club winner accomplished much at 2 and so may have two starts leading up to the Derby; his trainer says he has poise to control his speed.
6. Winslow Homer, 4-3-0-1, $152,825, Unbridleds Song, Tony Dutrow: He had an ideal trip, and his Holy Bull victory wasnt especially impressive; still, he finished with good energy when challenged and it represents a good starting place for the season.
7. Jackson Bend, 7-5-2-0, $477,820, Hear No Evil, Nick Zito: Although second, he ran a superior race in the Holy Bull; hes obviously reliable and admirable, but how much better will he get and how much farther will he go?
8. Rule, 5-3-1-1, $596,700, Roman Ruler, Todd Pletcher: The speedy athletic colt, who may be rated too low here, brings War Emblem to mind; his success will obviously depend on his willingness to control his speed and, perhaps more, on the pace competition he finds down the road. This class seems to have speed in abundance.
9. Conveyance, 3-3-0-0, $104,400, Indian Charlie, Bob Baffert: He led throughout to win the San Rafael, but he looked very green doing it, switching leads three times through the stretch; that also suggests a move from synthetics to dirt could work to his advantage.
10. Dryfly, 4-3-0-0, $114,840, Jump Start, Lynn Whiting: Winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, hes in the hands of an excellent horseman, hes on probably the best path leading to Kentucky, and he just might have the talent to get there.
11. Dublin, 5-2-0-0, $228,623, Afleet Alex, D. Wayne Lukas: Since throat surgery, the Hopeful winner has strung together some solid workouts and appears to be thriving at Oaklawn Park, where hell return on Feb. 15 in the Southwest.
12. Concord Point, 1-1-0-0, $26,400, Tapit, Bob Baffert: Distance will certainly be a major question down the road for the speedy maiden winner; for the moment, hell sprint, aiming at the San Vicente on Feb. 15.
13. Tahitian Warrior, 1-1-0-0-, $21,000, Marias Mon, Saeed bin Suroor: From here, based on just one race, he looks as if he could be as talented as any horse of his generation; hes just a beautiful mover; and he would be rated much higher if he werent going to Dubai. But is he going? He has had two works since the sale.
14. Overcommunication, 1-1-0-0, Unbridleds Song, Todd Pletcher: He won his December debut in hand by five lengths and is obviously capable of much more; his trainer has a very high opinion of his potential.
15. Blind Luck, 6-4-1-1, $709,050, Pollards Vision, Jerry Hollendorfer: Among the fillies, because she appears to improve with distance, she seems most capable of challenging the boys successfully, but shell probably stay with fillies.
16. Bulldogger, 1-1-0-0, $36,000, Dixie Union, Bob Baffert: He hasnt raced since his jaw-dropping debut in August, but he could return in February, and his trainer says the colt has progressed impressively.
17. Maximus Ruler, 3-1-1-1, $53,890, Roman Ruler, Clark Hanna: He showed his talent with his runner-up finish in the Lecomte, but also his immaturity; at this point, he seems to have only a vague idea about how to be a racehorse, but if his connections can educate him, he could be a player.
18. Uptowncharlybrown, 2-2-0-0, $40,200, Limehouse, Alan Seewald: His wins have been at Tampa Bay, but hes a smooth mover who looks capable of stepping forward and taking on top company.
19. Moojab, 2-1-0-1, $29,500, Smarty Jones, Dan Peitz: He rallied smartly to win by four in New York, but then in his seasonal debut at Oaklawn, he zigged and zagged like Zoros signature; hes another who could be a player if he matures and learns quickly enough, and he should improve when he stretches out.
20. Tempted to Tapit, 4,-1-2-0, $43,340, Tapit, Steve Klesaris: In New York, he romped by more than 11 lengths in his fourth start; the mud was probably a factor, but he also appears to be improving.
Also Eligible
However foolish the process might be, the Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes. Since 1987, when I first started putting together a list of contenders or noisemakers for the road to the Triple Crown, all but four Derby winners have been in my initial top 20. The list is based more on potential than accomplishment, but while it attempts to focus on horses that might get to the Triple Crown races, it also includes some horses, sprinters and turf types mainly, who may be unlikely to arrive at the destination but could nevertheless influence the journey. Some horses I spotted as 2-year-olds and thought had considerable potential arent included here simply because Ive lost track of them or havent seen any works for them in recent months; their omission may say more about me than it does about them. And, of course, several horses already have been dropped from the list simply because theyre already on the sidelines.
Identifying potential noisemakers this early has become more and more difficult in recent years because of synthetic tracks and shifting schedules. And so why bother? Well, its not done for bragging rights I loathe braggarts -- and, of course, this list of 100 means nothing, like all such lists, no matter the imprimatur or the ego involved, when set beside the horses performances on the track, where they will ultimately and inevitably decide their true hierarchy. Still, making such a list remains an entertaining and useful endeavor, if only for self-edification -- and, of course, for investments. And so here are 21-100.
Rank. Horse, sire, trainer, comment:
21. Interactif, Broken Vow, Todd Pletcher: A strikingly handsome colt, hes very accomplished on turf, but he also has trained very well on dirt; Pletcher said he might try the talented colt on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.
22. Afleet Express, Afleet Alex, Jimmy Jerkens: He overcame trouble to win his debut impressively and appears ready for a big effort in his return Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
23. Nobles Promise, Cuvee, Ken McPeek: He has been close while racing in top company, but its hard to see a son of Cuvee going much farther effectively.
24. Drosselmeyer, Distorted Humor, Bill Mott: He began his career on turf, but he gave his best effort in his only race on dirt, winning by six; he could develop into well, a toy maker full of surprises, starting Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
25. Dave in Dixie, Dixie Union, John Sadler: He finished about two back in the Norfolk while making only his second start; so he could be a significant talent and a major player in California, where hes training for his return.
26. Eightyfiveinafifty, Forest Camp, Gary Contessa: He scored by 17 at Aqueduct and could turn out to be the best sprinter of the group, but its hard to see his being very effective at longer distances and especially at 10 furlongs.
27. DFunnybone, DWildcat, Richard Dutrow: He won two graded stakes and looked sensational in the process before capitulating on Santa Anitas synthetic surface; hes training in Florida for his return and will probably make some noise before the preps stretch out to nine furlongs.
28. Make History, Empire Maker, John Terranova: In his only start last year, the handsome colt broke poorly, raced in traffic, had to be checked and then finished with a rush to be second, losing narrowly. He has had a series of five-furlong moves in Florida and should be ready to return soon; although hes far behind and still a maiden, he could jump up from nowhere to make a racket on the road to the Triple Crown.
29. A Little Warm, Stormin Fever, Tony Dutrow: He turned heads winning the Spectacular Bid in a fairly fast time and he appears to be improving; but I still have to view his chances of stretching out with skepticism.
30. Uh Oh Bango, Top Hit, Kory Owens: The big talented colt ran second to Rule at Delta Downs, but that may be reach of talent; hell probably return to competition in Arizona.
31. Lost Aptitude, Aptitude, Dale Romans: Hes certainly one of the best of the group on turf, where he looked sensational in two starts at Churchill before losing on a yielding course at Calder, but his breeding strongly suggests he may not have to be limited to grass.
32. Mission Impazible, Unbridleds Song, Todd Pletcher: Ran well, with good energy in the lane, in his seasonal debut, and could return in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park.
33. Fly By Phil, Act of Duty, Kathleen OConnell: Never worse than second, hes reliable and consistent, regardless of the surface; he may not have the pedigree or raw talent of many here, but hes a genuine racehorse.
34. Bulls And Bears, Holy Bull, Richard Violette: He won his debut and then had a nightmarish trip in the Sanford where he was fifth, but beaten less than two lengths; hes training in Florida for his return and could develop into a player.
35. Hawaiian Springs, Stephen Got Even, Kathy Walsh: He looked very good in his first start around two turns and could develop into a prominent player in California.
36. Soaring Empire, Empire Maker, Cam Gambolati: After rallying to win his debut, he ran third in the Iroquois in only his second start; he recently worked a half-mile in Florida in preparation for his return; hes obviously a little behind, but he could make some noise later down the road.
37. Discreetly Mine, Mineshaft, Todd Pletcher: He had a terrible trip in the Spectacular Bid to finish fourth; but hell get another chance soon, perhaps in the Hutcheson or the Sam F. Davis or the Risen Star, to show his talent.
38. Brake Lights, Saint Liam, Kiaran McLaughlin: He won by more than nine lengths making his first start for McLaughlin to suggest he could be prominent on the New York road.
39. Schoolyard Dreams, Stephen Got Even, Derek Ryan: He looked very impressive in his maiden victory last November, not so much so in his more recent victory at Tampa, but the highly regarded colt obviously has considerable potential.
40. Liston, Storm Cat, Kiaran McLaughlin: The Darley colt won at Saratoga and at Keeneland, facing good company in both races; he could come up with a knockout punch while training in Florida.
41. Sidneys Candy, Candy Ride, John Sadler: He flashed considerable potential last summer at Del Mar, but so far he has failed to follow through on the promises he made; its not too late, of course, and he appears to be training well in California.
42. Kettle River, Congaree, Eoin Harty: He looked very sharp in his recent victory at Santa Anita, and he appears capable of performing on just about any surface.
43. Formaggio, Dynaformer, David Carroll: The good-looking colt won his debut at 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans despite racing wide and ducking in; hes with an excellent horseman and can only get better.
44. Homeboykris, Roman Ruler, Juan Rodriguez: He won the Champagne and ran third in the Remsen; but she showed little in the Holy Bull and already it looks as if his best accomplishments are far behind him.
45. Thank U Philippe, Proud Accolade, Martin Wolfson: He has been chasing some good ones in Eskendereya and Jackson Bend; his trainer is certainly aware of both the colts talents and limitations and wont compromise him with unrealistic ambitions; still, hes such a solid performer that hell make some noise along the way even if hes not specifically aimed at the Triple Crown.
46. Ron The Greek, Full Mandate, Tom Amoss: The pace helped his cause in the Lecomte Stakes, but he has won three of four with his powerful late move; hell try for another in the Risen Star Stakes.
47. Rule By Night, Malibu Moon, Steve Asmussen: He won by more than seven lengths last week in New York in a dominating performance that suggests big things could be ahead.
48. Colizeo, Distorted Humor, Todd Pletcher: Stalking and pouncing while winning recently by 5 1/2 at Gulfstream, he looks as if he could make some noise on the Derby trail; but he appears to be a notch below Pletchers leading prospects.
49. Hockley, A.P. Indy, Eoin Harty: Still a maiden, hes in California, but he has shown his best on dirt, finishing second to Dublin and defeating Eightyfiveinafiftyrun at Saratoga. A $560,000 purchase, hes an intriguing possibility, but for what exactly remains unclear.
50. General Maximus, Freud, Joesph Imperio: He won his debut impressively last summer with a lively clocking, and the New York-bred is set to return this weekend at Gulfstream.
Continued...
Comments
52. American Lion, Tiznow, Eoin Harty: The big colt was fully extended to beat a weak field at Hollywood and didn’t look particularly good doing it. But he’s lightly raced, and he still could move forward with more distance and experience.
53. Tiny Woods, Roman Ruler, Bob Baffert: This is obviously a talented colt, but so far he has looked like a sprinter.
54. Domonation, Maria’s Mon, John Sadler: He always seems to be chasing a Baffert runner home, most recently in the San Rafael, and he might do better with a change of scenery.
55. Three Day Rush, Harlan’s Holiday, Todd Pletcher: A hard-trying sort who just lowers his head and runs, he defeated stablemate Mission Impazible in his seasonal debut and will probably try stakes company in his next outing.
56. Middle Of The Nite, Offlee Wild, Daniel Blacker: He finished just two lengths behind Eskendereya at Gulfstream and appears to be improving; he should be able to make some noise if spotted carefully.
57. Trappe Shot, Tapit, Kiaran McLaughlin: He lost all chance when he stumbled at the break in his debut last summer, but, still, he flashed some ability; the $850,000 colt who’s a half-brother to three stakes winners could be heard from at some point on the road to the Triple Crown.
58. Odysseus, Malibu Moon, Tom Albertrani: Second to Moojab in his debut, he won recently at Gulfstream and seems capable of more improvement when he stretches out.
59. Hollinger, Black Minnaloushe, Roger Attfield: The unbeaten Canadian has the talent to
compete across the border.
60. William’s Kitten, Kitten’s Joy, Michael Maker: He usually makes a late run to get part, as he did in the Holy Bull, but he hasn’t shown the talent or the potential necessary to be a major player.
61. Stay Put, Broken Vow, Steve Margolis: His late charge has put him in the winner’s circle twice in New Orleans, and he’ll look for a third visit in the Risen Star.
62. Worldly, A.P. Indy, Paul McGee: He hasn’t yet shown the talent to compete at a high level, but he has a punch and his breeding suggests he could improve.
63. Aikenite, Yes It’s True, Todd Pletcher: He’s a reliable blue collar sort, but he doesn’t seem able at this point anyway to compete at the highest level.
64. Who’s Up, Graeme Hall, Kathy Walsh: He won the Generous and could be one of the better West Coast turf horses, which, of course, means he’s also a possibility on the synthetics.
65. Western Smoke, Smoke Glacken, Steve Asmussen: The speedy gray won the Sapling, and he could be a top sprinter, but his future might be all sprinting.
66. Asphalt, War Chant, Eddie Kenneally: His best efforts may be confined to the turf, where he seems to have a bright future.
67. Vale of York, Invincible Spirit, Saeed bin Suroor: Obviously a horse of quality before he ever won the BCup, he’s included here just as a reminder that he might return; but it’s hard to see him having much success on real dirt.
68. Soldier Field, More Than Ready, Bill Mott: Although still a maiden after two starts, he has finished strongly in both outings while running in good company and could soon find the winner’s circle in Florida.
69. Lentenor, Dynaformer, Michael Matz: He obviously has a future on the turf, but like his famous brother, Barbaro, he may also be able to make the transition to the dirt.
70. Pleasant Storm, Pleasant Tap, Joe Petalino: After two victories at Remington, in only his third start and his first around two turns, the Okie-bred ran second to Dryfly at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones.
71. Savemyspotimbeting, Vindication, Dan Miller: He won his debut by five in a style that suggests a bright future.
72. Pulsion, Include, Patrick Biancone: Ran well, except for the BCup, in top company last year and will make his genuine dirt debut Sunday at Gulfstream.
73. Oak Motte, Valid Expectations, Tom Amoss: He chased Rule twice and never has given a poor performance, but his effectiveness might end at 1 1/16 miles.
74. Walking The Beach, Medaglia d’Oro, Bret Calhoun: Very promising in his debut, he flopped in his second outing, but he’ll get another chance Monday at Fair Grounds.
75. Fly Down, Mineshaft, Nick Zito: Looked good while winning at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill and is training in Florida for his return, but will obviously have to take a big step forward to be a factor.
76. Cool Bullet, Red Bullet, Steve Margolis: The former claimer won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds and gave a solid effort in the Lecomte, but he’s clearly a notch or two below the top group.
77. Citrus Kid, Lemon Drop Kid, John Terranova: After consecutive victories in Delaware, he ran third a strange Remsen. Obviously he has some talent, which he could soon display in Florida.
78. Great Attack, Greatness, Wesley Ward: His only loss was to Dryfly, and he could be better when he stretches out.
79. Bear’s Hard Ten, Rock Hard Ten, Reade Baker: With an impressive run down the stretch, he won the Display Stakes at Woodbine
80. Cat Park, Tale Of The Cat, Graham Motion: He ran third in the Tropical Park Derby, and he probably needs turf or synthetic footing to give his best performance, but he looks like a horse who appreciates distance and so could make some noise.
81. Caracortado, Cat Dreams, Mike Machowsky: The unbeaten gelding likes the company of Cal-breds, but he could be good enough to try tougher.
82. Backtalk, Smarty Jones, Tom Amoss: He won two graded stakes as a 2-year-old, but didn’t improve significantly through the campaign; after training in Florida, he recently joined the Amoss stable in New Orleans.
83. Grand Slam Andre, Grand Slam, Steve Asmussen: He won three stakes last year, and although he’s reliable he appears to be a notch below the best of the group.
84. Laus Deo, Medaglia d’Oro, Tony Dutrow: The Count Fleet winner has won consecutive races, but they’re slow races that suggest his noisemaking may be limited to squeaks.
85. Gold Element, Gold Legend, Bret Calhoun: The Texas-bred colt has won his two starts by a total of 22 lengths; he’s no threat for the roses, but he may be able to shake things up.
86. Deputy Danny, Officer, A.C. Lynch: The unbeaten colt won the recent Winkfield Stakes in New York, but it was a very slow race.
87. Cardiff Giant, Yankee Gentleman, Jorge Periban: He has improved steadily since being claimed for $32,000 and could be good enough to make some noise in California.
88. Thomas Got Even, Stephen Got Even, Nick Zito: He showed promise with his debut victory at Belmont, but he has had only a half-mile workout this year in Florida.
89. Big Texas Daddy, Valid Expectations, Steve Asmussen: He just missed in the Sugar Bowl and has never run a bad race; nor has he run in top company.
90. Take Turns, Seeking The Gold, Morris Nicks: He won his debut in encouraging fashion in November and since then has done nothing but work modest half-miles, making him if nothing else one of the more intriguing members of the noisy 100.
91. Coyote Legend, Gold Legend, Bret Calhoun: Texas-bred brother of Gold Coyote seems to improve as the distances stretch out.
92. Peppi Knows, Stephen Got Even, Samuel Keyrouze: Ran second in the Remsen to Buddy’s Saint; although his races are rather slow, he consistently has given solid performances.
93. Ice Box, Pulpit, Nick Zito: Another from Zito’s barn, he won at Gulfstream recently and appears to be improving.
94. Best Actor, Rock Hard Ten, Wayne Catalano: His maiden win at Gulfstream, by four, hinted at possibilities, and he’ll have an opportunity to drop more hints Sunday.
95. Guys Reward, Grand Reward, Dale Romans: He has run close to some nice horses but obviously needs to take a big step forward if he’s to be a player; he’ll have his chance Sunday at Gulfstream.
96. Out of Respect, Read The Footnotes, Bruce Levine: Never worse than second, the New York-bred looked sharp in a recent effort and could step forward in the right company.
97. Stormy Ocean, Stormy Atlantic, Michael Marina: He ran second to the Tahitian Warrior in a solid effort that suggests he won’t remain a maiden long.
98. Connemara, Giant’s Causeway, Todd Pletcher: His initial victories, although very slow, impressed some; but he didn’t show much in the California Derby when second to a rather pokey Ranger Heartley.
99. Our Dark Knight, Medaglia d’Oro, Nick Zito: He ran second to Bulldogger in his debut and is preparing for a return in Florida.
100. Siento El Trueno, City Zip, Mike Stidham: He strictly looks like a sprinter, but his debut victory in New Orleans was so impressive that it suggests he could make some noise in some of the stops along the road to the Triple Crown.