Breeders Cup Juvenile - early analysis
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I'm a bit light on plays this month, with Saratoga/Del Mar closing and the Santa Anita meet still weeks away. So i thought i'd offer up some early analysis on the Breeders Cup...
The Leopard (Pletcher)
High-priced 2yo purchase has shown a lot of ability in his two starts, both maiden races. He was outrun early in his debut by the very fast colts Fed Watcher and Immortal Eyes, but found his best stride late and came rolling up the inside to take second (in excellent time). Broke his maiden in start #2 when stretched to 6 furlongs at Saratoga, again facing the speedster Immortal Eyes. He was being pushed on pretty hard just to stay within striking distance of that one, and looked well-beaten until very late. Then, just as in his bebut, he was suddenly able to lengthen his stride and put in a strong late run to get up for the win. Again the time was very fast; in fact it was nearly 2 seconds faster than the other 2yo sprint on the card. After Immortal Eyes, it was another 8 lengths back to the field. It's also worth noting this colt had worked heads-up with the older stakes winner Sunriver heading into that race. This is a young colt of the highest quality, and to my eyes he figures to improve when finally able to relax off a slowish pace (the kind you'll find at route distances). Looks like the top prospect for the BC Juvenile (and possibly even the Ky Derby) from where i'm sitting.
Ready's Image (Pletcher)
Not sure how well this colt will stretch out, especially after the Hopeful where he got the last furlong in roughly 14 seconds. He did have it pretty rough though, being pushed along early to keep pace with the brilliant Maimonides, then engaging that one through a fierce stretch battle that left him vulnerable to Majestic Warrior in the late going. Won the battle, lost the war. That represents his only loss however, aside from a total non-effort over a very sloppy track at Churchill. Has looked very powerful in his other starts, including a fantastic effort in the Sanford where he toyed with a plethora of good horses. Prior to his deebut @ Keenelkand, he had worked well in company with the older stakes horse Twilight Meteor (who had gone favored over Hard Spun in the Lane's End). Clearly this horse is one of the top 2yo's in the country, it's just a matter of how well he stretches out. Worth mentioning his sire (More Than Ready) won the BC Juvenile around two turns to cap an undefeated season.
Majestic Warrior (Mott)
This one had worked heads-up with Z Humor prior to winning his debut at 6.5 furlongs. That one turned up a few days later and won by open lengths, albeit a second slower than Maimonides had run earlier on the card. Also, the second-place finisher from his debut win returned to score next time out. He had things pretty much his own way in the Hopeful, settling well behind the dueling leaders Maimonides/Ready's Image before launching his late run to get up for the win. I haven't looked into his closing fraction yet, but the final time was solid for 7 furlongs at Saratoga. Can't knock the effort, but it concerns me a bit that he had it so easy. Nost just the pace meldown, but also the fact it was a 4-horse field and there was only one other horse in area code during most of the race. Zero traffic. That certainly can't be held against him, and he did win from off the pace after breaking from the rail in his debut, so it looks like he can handle adversity. It also can't be overlooked that the two horses he beat in the Hopeful are very, very good. He does have the look of a horse that can handle additional ground, and of course Mott is known for his work with route horses. Obvious contender.
Kodiak Kowboy (Asmussen)
Hard-knocking colt has shown the abilty to ship around and win, heading up to Woodbine for a stakes win there before coming to Saratoga and posrting an impressive win over the good colts The Roundhouse and Riley Tucker. He also showed the ability to handle adversity in that last race, being bottled up behind horses before bursting through an opening and running off to a daylight win in fast time. This one hasn't gotten a ton of press, but he's not to be taken lightly.
The Roundhouse (Pletcher)
Circular Quay's little brother has shown a very similar running style, laying well behind in the early going before unleashing a strong late kick. Ran very well for second behind Kodiak Kowbow, but he just left himself with too much to do. Might become a recurring theme, hard to say right now. His talent is obvious, and he should be able to lay closer to slowish route fractions before making his move, which can only be beneficial. His closing kick may be dullened at longer distances, however. Has the look of a contender, but the jury's out. IT should be noted that his brother didn't stretch out particularly well. Not that he was running badly, but his 2yo sprint form was better than his 2yo route form. He didn't really pop up with a big route effort until the Louisiana Derby.
There are a few more Eastern-based colts who are worth mentioning, and of course i haven't gotten to the California contingent yet. To be continued...
The Leopard (Pletcher)
High-priced 2yo purchase has shown a lot of ability in his two starts, both maiden races. He was outrun early in his debut by the very fast colts Fed Watcher and Immortal Eyes, but found his best stride late and came rolling up the inside to take second (in excellent time). Broke his maiden in start #2 when stretched to 6 furlongs at Saratoga, again facing the speedster Immortal Eyes. He was being pushed on pretty hard just to stay within striking distance of that one, and looked well-beaten until very late. Then, just as in his bebut, he was suddenly able to lengthen his stride and put in a strong late run to get up for the win. Again the time was very fast; in fact it was nearly 2 seconds faster than the other 2yo sprint on the card. After Immortal Eyes, it was another 8 lengths back to the field. It's also worth noting this colt had worked heads-up with the older stakes winner Sunriver heading into that race. This is a young colt of the highest quality, and to my eyes he figures to improve when finally able to relax off a slowish pace (the kind you'll find at route distances). Looks like the top prospect for the BC Juvenile (and possibly even the Ky Derby) from where i'm sitting.
Ready's Image (Pletcher)
Not sure how well this colt will stretch out, especially after the Hopeful where he got the last furlong in roughly 14 seconds. He did have it pretty rough though, being pushed along early to keep pace with the brilliant Maimonides, then engaging that one through a fierce stretch battle that left him vulnerable to Majestic Warrior in the late going. Won the battle, lost the war. That represents his only loss however, aside from a total non-effort over a very sloppy track at Churchill. Has looked very powerful in his other starts, including a fantastic effort in the Sanford where he toyed with a plethora of good horses. Prior to his deebut @ Keenelkand, he had worked well in company with the older stakes horse Twilight Meteor (who had gone favored over Hard Spun in the Lane's End). Clearly this horse is one of the top 2yo's in the country, it's just a matter of how well he stretches out. Worth mentioning his sire (More Than Ready) won the BC Juvenile around two turns to cap an undefeated season.
Majestic Warrior (Mott)
This one had worked heads-up with Z Humor prior to winning his debut at 6.5 furlongs. That one turned up a few days later and won by open lengths, albeit a second slower than Maimonides had run earlier on the card. Also, the second-place finisher from his debut win returned to score next time out. He had things pretty much his own way in the Hopeful, settling well behind the dueling leaders Maimonides/Ready's Image before launching his late run to get up for the win. I haven't looked into his closing fraction yet, but the final time was solid for 7 furlongs at Saratoga. Can't knock the effort, but it concerns me a bit that he had it so easy. Nost just the pace meldown, but also the fact it was a 4-horse field and there was only one other horse in area code during most of the race. Zero traffic. That certainly can't be held against him, and he did win from off the pace after breaking from the rail in his debut, so it looks like he can handle adversity. It also can't be overlooked that the two horses he beat in the Hopeful are very, very good. He does have the look of a horse that can handle additional ground, and of course Mott is known for his work with route horses. Obvious contender.
Kodiak Kowboy (Asmussen)
Hard-knocking colt has shown the abilty to ship around and win, heading up to Woodbine for a stakes win there before coming to Saratoga and posrting an impressive win over the good colts The Roundhouse and Riley Tucker. He also showed the ability to handle adversity in that last race, being bottled up behind horses before bursting through an opening and running off to a daylight win in fast time. This one hasn't gotten a ton of press, but he's not to be taken lightly.
The Roundhouse (Pletcher)
Circular Quay's little brother has shown a very similar running style, laying well behind in the early going before unleashing a strong late kick. Ran very well for second behind Kodiak Kowbow, but he just left himself with too much to do. Might become a recurring theme, hard to say right now. His talent is obvious, and he should be able to lay closer to slowish route fractions before making his move, which can only be beneficial. His closing kick may be dullened at longer distances, however. Has the look of a contender, but the jury's out. IT should be noted that his brother didn't stretch out particularly well. Not that he was running badly, but his 2yo sprint form was better than his 2yo route form. He didn't really pop up with a big route effort until the Louisiana Derby.
There are a few more Eastern-based colts who are worth mentioning, and of course i haven't gotten to the California contingent yet. To be continued...
Comments
I saw Kodiak Kowboy in person in his last race at Saratoga in the Saratoga Special, and he ran a good race against The Roundhouse and held him off, seemed both were running late! Dont know if he is the top of the 2 YO class, but glad to see he is mentioned look foward to see him running some more!
Look foward to some future talk about the BC!
Second-time starter showed considerable improvement whjen stretched out to 7 furlongs, winning off by 4 lengths over a large field in 123.44. By way of comparison, 3yo claimers ($35k) ran the same distance in 123.77 half an hour earlier. Well-bred, well-connected colt can be a force in the division with any further improvement.
War Pass (Zito)
Fast colt by Cherokee Run has shown much talent in going 2-for-2 thus far, most recently earning a Beyer figure of 93. Might be a bit too headstrong in the early going to stretch out effectively, but definitely one to watch.
J Be K (Baffert)
Track-record setter by Silver Deputy finshed up in a good 6.2 after a blazing five furlongs in 56.3. Very fast colt in the hands of a capable trainer.
Silver Edition (Lukas)
Another Silver Deputy firster who ran ridiculously fast in his debut, defeating the excellent (and very unlucky) Immortal Eyes in 1:02.4. Word must've been out on this horse, as he was catching a good bit of money in the early going. Laid behind a very elusive target in the early stages before making a strong late run to collar him. Looks to to have big-time talent, stalking ability, and is in the hands of a guy who can definitely get a horse ready for the Juvenile.
On to the California horses. These guys are tough to gauge due to the Polytrack. It's hard to get a handle on the running times, and they might not perform as well on conventional dirt.
Drill Down (Machowsky)
El Corredor colt has shown a good bit of talent thus far, and went favored in the Del Mar Futurity. Was beaten in a blanket finish there. Nothing to knock.
Kanan Dume (Mandella)
Big, good-looking colt with good speed and a long stride. Broke from the rail in the Futurity, and made a nice late run to come close (in only his second career start). Bright future for this horse, will likely improve even further when going long.
Salute the Sarge (Guillot)
Hard-knocking colt won his first 3 starts (two of them stakes), and may have been best in the Futurity as well. Not the prettiest of movers but you can't argue with his consistency.
Leonides (Cerin)
This colt had shown a big late kick in his first two starts, then inexplicably changed his running style in the Futurity and went right up to cvhalenge the pace. He was coming off a two-month layoff, might've been a little fresh. Almost certainly was a little short, particularly for a 7-furlong stakes on the deepish polytrack. Wasn't beaten by much after doing most of the dirty work, and is eligible for improvement.
Georgie Boy (Walsh)
Not sure what to think of this colt. He had been training sensationally into his debut, then proceeded to go 0-for-2. Then he entered directly into a stakes race, and wins. In fact, he's 2-for-3 in stakes races now after his Futurity win, but he got run down in the Best Pal (by Salute the Sarge) after having things all his own way on a soft pace. He has shown some versatility, running on and off the lead. Speaking of leads, he trouble changing them through the stretch run of the Futurity. But he still won. I dunno, clearly the horse has talent, but i never know what to expect from him.