Kentucky Derby Talk
fbwinners
Senior Member
Well we are 45 days out from the greatest 2 minutes in sports history on May 1st. I have been really reviewing contenders and this is one wide open derby this year. Below are my theories as of this past weekend races.
Fastest Horses using my own speed figures
Rule - He is the forgotten horse in the Pletcher barn since the big performance by Big E. I really like the way this horse runs and he kind of reminds me of War Emblem and we all better watch out and hope we don't have a War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Perfect Drift type of derby this coming year. Rule has 3 consecutive fast races in a row at a route of ground and now will have a X on his back this Saturday. He will bounce IMO in the Fl. Derby and will be forgotten on Derby day and will be 10-1 or more !!!!
Conveyance - This is just one fast ass horse and everyone was saying Dublin was getting to him go watch the replay Dublin wasn't going to past him and never passed him in the gallop out. Martin Garica is on a roll and has paid his dues working all the big name horses and now is getting a chance per Baffert to ride some of the in the afternoon and might just steal the Derby this year. I can tell you one thing I know for sure and I'm hoping Baffert comes to the FG on La. Derby day and sends his assistant to Dubai for Richards Kid race that day Bobby B is real high on this colt as much as LAL. I will probe him on the 27th for all type of info.
Eskenderya - I have been high on this colt since I first saw him in 09, he mas my second choice to Winslow Homer before Homer got hurt. He proved in the FOY that he has crusing speed and is 3-3 on dirt. His race in the FOY was on par with my numbers to Bernadini Preakness and Smarty Jones Preakness. He is my highest rated speed horse to Conveyance then Rule. The are separated by the very smallest of margins.
Looks as good or better than the above but don't show the speed figures as of now.
Lookin At Lucky - What can you say bad about this colt, NOTHING!!!! But his speed figures arent' on par with the above 3 but he keeps winning and he has been compared by Baffert, Gomez, and Ron Anderson as one of the best horses they have ever been around. He ran a huge race in the Rebel getting checked and then swinging wide to nail Noble at the wire. This horse has been pointed to the derby since day 1 and hasn't had a hicup as of this date. Just stay tuned to him and would love to see him in the Wood in NY.
Noble's Promise - First thing first is this Cuvee colt really don't have the breeding to win at 1 1/4 but stranger things have happened. I really see this colt winning the Ark Derby off his Rebel effort as he needed that one and really wasn't cranked for a top effort as he is suppose to peak like LAL on derby day as there 3rd start off there race pattern. Looking forward to seeing what McPeek has instore for this colt in coming weeks. NOTE: Oulaw Man a colt in the McPeek barn is screaming for dirt let's hope he gets in weeks to come.
Schoolyard Dreams - I love his trainer in Derek Ryan as he had Musket Man to run every race out last year and has a nice young colt here. I love the move this colt made in the Tamp Derby and still cannot believe I cashed on the horse below in that race. I can see him finishing in the money derby day a big odds. Don't leave him off your ticket on May 1st. This is one gutsy horse and is getting better and hasnt' peaked as of this training for the Derby.
Odysseus - Just like this horse but Tommy A is making a huge mistake training him up to the derby off 7 weeks and really no foundation with only 4 races on his belt. Let's hope Tommy A changes his mind and gives this colt another race before the derby.
Horses I think will have a huge impact on Derby Day that are just starting to peak
Make Music For Me - This colt is peaking at the right time and won that turf race in fine fashion. Just wish he had a better trainer nothing against Mrs. Barbara. This one will come running on Derby day and you better make sure you have him on your tickets as I think he can win the race if they kill one another up front on May 1st. I wish this one had a race on the dirt. Will be a huge price with only one victory on the grass.
Sidneys Candy - This is one running SOB and is bred for the route of ground in a big manner. I really don't think he needs the lead as much as he is showing in his races. This colt can finish running fast fractions up front and digs in stong coming to the wire kind of like Lion Heart. Cannot wait to see him run in the SA Derby. Him and Make Music For flying to the wire in a great finish.
Stay Put - La. Derby is the telling tail. Steve Margolis told me on Risen Star day he wasn't cranked nowhere near for a top performance and will have him right on par for the La. Derby just going to need some pace this coming race. Plenty of shippers for that day so the pace should be much more honest than the merry go round Risen Star. The 1-2-3-4 finishers ran around the track the whole on Risen Star Day.
Fastest Horses using my own speed figures
Rule - He is the forgotten horse in the Pletcher barn since the big performance by Big E. I really like the way this horse runs and he kind of reminds me of War Emblem and we all better watch out and hope we don't have a War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Perfect Drift type of derby this coming year. Rule has 3 consecutive fast races in a row at a route of ground and now will have a X on his back this Saturday. He will bounce IMO in the Fl. Derby and will be forgotten on Derby day and will be 10-1 or more !!!!
Conveyance - This is just one fast ass horse and everyone was saying Dublin was getting to him go watch the replay Dublin wasn't going to past him and never passed him in the gallop out. Martin Garica is on a roll and has paid his dues working all the big name horses and now is getting a chance per Baffert to ride some of the in the afternoon and might just steal the Derby this year. I can tell you one thing I know for sure and I'm hoping Baffert comes to the FG on La. Derby day and sends his assistant to Dubai for Richards Kid race that day Bobby B is real high on this colt as much as LAL. I will probe him on the 27th for all type of info.
Eskenderya - I have been high on this colt since I first saw him in 09, he mas my second choice to Winslow Homer before Homer got hurt. He proved in the FOY that he has crusing speed and is 3-3 on dirt. His race in the FOY was on par with my numbers to Bernadini Preakness and Smarty Jones Preakness. He is my highest rated speed horse to Conveyance then Rule. The are separated by the very smallest of margins.
Looks as good or better than the above but don't show the speed figures as of now.
Lookin At Lucky - What can you say bad about this colt, NOTHING!!!! But his speed figures arent' on par with the above 3 but he keeps winning and he has been compared by Baffert, Gomez, and Ron Anderson as one of the best horses they have ever been around. He ran a huge race in the Rebel getting checked and then swinging wide to nail Noble at the wire. This horse has been pointed to the derby since day 1 and hasn't had a hicup as of this date. Just stay tuned to him and would love to see him in the Wood in NY.
Noble's Promise - First thing first is this Cuvee colt really don't have the breeding to win at 1 1/4 but stranger things have happened. I really see this colt winning the Ark Derby off his Rebel effort as he needed that one and really wasn't cranked for a top effort as he is suppose to peak like LAL on derby day as there 3rd start off there race pattern. Looking forward to seeing what McPeek has instore for this colt in coming weeks. NOTE: Oulaw Man a colt in the McPeek barn is screaming for dirt let's hope he gets in weeks to come.
Schoolyard Dreams - I love his trainer in Derek Ryan as he had Musket Man to run every race out last year and has a nice young colt here. I love the move this colt made in the Tamp Derby and still cannot believe I cashed on the horse below in that race. I can see him finishing in the money derby day a big odds. Don't leave him off your ticket on May 1st. This is one gutsy horse and is getting better and hasnt' peaked as of this training for the Derby.
Odysseus - Just like this horse but Tommy A is making a huge mistake training him up to the derby off 7 weeks and really no foundation with only 4 races on his belt. Let's hope Tommy A changes his mind and gives this colt another race before the derby.
Horses I think will have a huge impact on Derby Day that are just starting to peak
Make Music For Me - This colt is peaking at the right time and won that turf race in fine fashion. Just wish he had a better trainer nothing against Mrs. Barbara. This one will come running on Derby day and you better make sure you have him on your tickets as I think he can win the race if they kill one another up front on May 1st. I wish this one had a race on the dirt. Will be a huge price with only one victory on the grass.
Sidneys Candy - This is one running SOB and is bred for the route of ground in a big manner. I really don't think he needs the lead as much as he is showing in his races. This colt can finish running fast fractions up front and digs in stong coming to the wire kind of like Lion Heart. Cannot wait to see him run in the SA Derby. Him and Make Music For flying to the wire in a great finish.
Stay Put - La. Derby is the telling tail. Steve Margolis told me on Risen Star day he wasn't cranked nowhere near for a top performance and will have him right on par for the La. Derby just going to need some pace this coming race. Plenty of shippers for that day so the pace should be much more honest than the merry go round Risen Star. The 1-2-3-4 finishers ran around the track the whole on Risen Star Day.
Comments
I truly agree, I can tell you one thing watch out for Drosselmyer in that race also, was told right after the Risen Star by Motts assistant they got just what they wanted out of that race and he will be right on point for his next start. He wouldn't commit to the La. Derby that day when I asked if it was the La Derby. Still havent' heard as of this date where he will be in the starting gate.
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That said however, and impressive as he looked in the San Felipe, that race really didn't tell us much. He just had such an east time up front that it's tough to draw any real conclusions about his chances in the Derby. He could very well be the fastest 3yo in the country though...