Good article on the closing splits for the Florida Derby
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from the Louisville Courier-Journal:
One of the Derby handicapping angles I follow is how fast a horse finished the final eighth-mile and three-eighths mile in its last 1 1/8-mile Derby prep.
While Mine That Bird blew this out of the water last year (not the only angle he shattered), the tenet has been an admirable indicator of which horses are best equipped for the Derby's 1 1/4 miles and are in good form.
Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths. This theory doesn't worry so much about the final time of a race -- which can be functions of track condition and pace -- as what horses are doing in the late stages.
In 14 of the past 19 years, including nine of the past 11 in which the Derby winner's final prep was at 1 1/8 miles, that horse ran the final furlong in less than 13 seconds. Also, 15 of the past 19 Derby winners ran their last three-eighths in less than 38 seconds in their final 1 1/8-mile prep.
Ice Box ran the last eighth-mile in his Florida Derby victory in 12.60 seconds and his last three-eighths in 36.88.
Pleasant Prince, who ran the race of his life to lose by a nose on the final stride, finished the last eighth mile in 12.70 seconds. His final three-eighths is right on the bubble at 38.01, by my math. If you're using fifths instead of hundredths, it would be 38 seconds, of course.
These are the tough ones, because I make the assumption that the margins for the internal points of call are accurate. Pleasant Prince was two lengths and a head, according to the Equibase chart, off the pace at the eighth pole. My calculation calls for a head to be .02 seconds (a length is .2 seconds).
Favored Rule, who was part of a grueling pace and finished 1 1/4 lengths back in third, ran very well to even get a part of it. But if you follow this angle, he's not going to win the Derby, though I think no one would be surprised if he hit the board.
Rule's final eighth was 13.35 seconds, his final three-eighths in 38.41. This was the race he needed to show he could effectively rate after four straight front-running victories. And even with jockey John Velazquez second-guessing himself for not taking the colt back and believing Rule will rate, the Derby is a tough place to learn how to do that. (There's also a good chance Rule will have another rider for the jockey, with Velazquez also riding Derby favorite Eskendereya for trainer Todd Pletcher.)
Unless they run back in another race or less than 20 horses enter, no other horse from the Florida Derby is going to make the Derby field.
One of the Derby handicapping angles I follow is how fast a horse finished the final eighth-mile and three-eighths mile in its last 1 1/8-mile Derby prep.
While Mine That Bird blew this out of the water last year (not the only angle he shattered), the tenet has been an admirable indicator of which horses are best equipped for the Derby's 1 1/4 miles and are in good form.
Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths. This theory doesn't worry so much about the final time of a race -- which can be functions of track condition and pace -- as what horses are doing in the late stages.
In 14 of the past 19 years, including nine of the past 11 in which the Derby winner's final prep was at 1 1/8 miles, that horse ran the final furlong in less than 13 seconds. Also, 15 of the past 19 Derby winners ran their last three-eighths in less than 38 seconds in their final 1 1/8-mile prep.
Ice Box ran the last eighth-mile in his Florida Derby victory in 12.60 seconds and his last three-eighths in 36.88.
Pleasant Prince, who ran the race of his life to lose by a nose on the final stride, finished the last eighth mile in 12.70 seconds. His final three-eighths is right on the bubble at 38.01, by my math. If you're using fifths instead of hundredths, it would be 38 seconds, of course.
These are the tough ones, because I make the assumption that the margins for the internal points of call are accurate. Pleasant Prince was two lengths and a head, according to the Equibase chart, off the pace at the eighth pole. My calculation calls for a head to be .02 seconds (a length is .2 seconds).
Favored Rule, who was part of a grueling pace and finished 1 1/4 lengths back in third, ran very well to even get a part of it. But if you follow this angle, he's not going to win the Derby, though I think no one would be surprised if he hit the board.
Rule's final eighth was 13.35 seconds, his final three-eighths in 38.41. This was the race he needed to show he could effectively rate after four straight front-running victories. And even with jockey John Velazquez second-guessing himself for not taking the colt back and believing Rule will rate, the Derby is a tough place to learn how to do that. (There's also a good chance Rule will have another rider for the jockey, with Velazquez also riding Derby favorite Eskendereya for trainer Todd Pletcher.)
Unless they run back in another race or less than 20 horses enter, no other horse from the Florida Derby is going to make the Derby field.