Santa Anita Thursday 3.9 Handicapping Live Blog.

dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
edited April 2017 in Horse Racing Forum
If you're up, read this thing with me.

Comments

  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    R1. If #2 Pappou doesn't win this race, he should be taken and shot. Given 50 chances last year versus straight maidens, this 400k Tapit never showed shit. Flavien gets it done here. No value.

    Other interesting spots include the Baltas horse, who drops (a little). The Ellis horse obviously, and then Cerin's horse isn't in for the tag. A late jock change to Kent would make that play city.

    No value here.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    R2. Toss up. I truly believe if Kent sends Prospect Park an makes the lead he might not stop.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    R3.5f Apparently, the Carava horse is a lightning quick quarter horse looking type per the god clocker.
    #5 Zachian is the 4th choice in the race @ 4-1, significant horizontal value. Carava gives Pedroza his livest speed horses. Clockers in, and we have a Baffert dropper with a fast but spotty pattern. He could win, and they just don't want his unsound ass.

    Cover whatever you want in the pick 5. But this guy is the contrarian bet in a questionable field.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    r4. No opinion, bu there are a couple multiple winners.

    5. 2457 I'll put Hobbits Hero on top. Speedy type, and doesn't quit.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    Sometimes value is value. I hate chalk, but the 6th:

    Over Achiever    . He was claimed 4 back by Hollendorfer - for himself (he's doing this less, my horse Plastered is another to watch for). He then ran into a Billy Spawr buzzsaw, and much saltier fields twice, but in the seconf appearance i saw him looking very much physically improved. Then they snuck this fucker by and crushed for 10k in a race they weren't favored in. Today he makes the marginal incline to 12.5k, but ain't shit in here. Easy single, easy $$$$$ above even money. And we get best fucking jock.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    r7. Baffert sends out 2 last chance Derby shots in Irish Freedom, and Reach the World, who would give Don Alberto the Derby Oaks double with Unique Bella.

    Apparently Reach the World is really good, But I'm gonna try to get 5/2 or 3-1 on my old buddy Battle of Midway. Wasn't training well and had a decent 3rd behind Iliad last out. Smith also bails on him for Reach, but fuck it. And 3 deep pick 4.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    r8 2789 Don't care.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    R3.5f Apparently, the Carava horse is a lightning quick quarter horse looking type per the god clocker.
    #5 Zachian is the 4th choice in the race @ 4-1, significant horizontal value. Carava gives Pedroza his livest speed horses. Clockers in, and we have a Baffert dropper with a fast but spotty pattern. He could win, and they just don't want his unsound ass.

    Cover whatever you want in the pick 5. But this guy is the contrarian bet in a questionable field.

    Scratched the Baffert. Means he was worth more than 20 and would have beat us. We won't get more than 2-1 now, but it sure beats betting Solar Zone.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    r8 2789 Don't care.
    add the Chinaman in here, too.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    R1. If #2 Pappou doesn't win this race, he should be taken and shot. Given 50 chances last year versus straight maidens, this 400k Tapit never showed shit. Flavien gets it done here. No value.

    Other interesting spots include the Baltas horse, who drops (a little). The Ellis horse obviously, and then Cerin's horse isn't in for the tag. A late jock change to Kent would make that play city.

    No value here.

    Ends up not even being favored.... Wins for absolute fun.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    R2. Toss up. I truly believe if Kent sends Prospect Park an makes the lead he might not stop.

    Even money laugher. He galloped on the lead.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Sometimes value is value. I hate chalk, but the 6th:

    Over Achiever    . He was claimed 4 back by Hollendorfer - for himself (he's doing this less, my horse Plastered is another to watch for). He then ran into a Billy Spawr buzzsaw, and much saltier fields twice, but in the seconf appearance i saw him looking very much physically improved. Then they snuck this fucker by and crushed for 10k in a race they weren't favored in. Today he makes the marginal incline to 12.5k, but ain't shit in here. Easy single, easy $$$$$ above even money. And we get best fucking jock.

    Hysterical. They really let this horse get off at 9/5. Well, I just made a couple thousand dollars. And boy, we're alive to a couple thousand more. I simply don't get this one. Major payday.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    r7. Baffert sends out 2 last chance Derby shots in Irish Freedom, and Reach the World, who would give Don Alberto the Derby Oaks double with Unique Bella.

    Apparently Reach the World is really good, But I'm gonna try to get 5/2 or 3-1 on my old buddy Battle of Midway. Wasn't training well and had a decent 3rd behind Iliad last out. Smith also bails on him for Reach, but fuck it. And 3 deep pick 4.

    BATTLE OF MIDWAY makes it a banner day. Crush time. You fuckers are pretty quiet, i hope we all got paid.
  • dowdenadowdena Junior Member
    edited March 2017
    Just read your post...........nice capping
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    I hate tomorrow's card
  • roundtripparoundtrippa Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    Really nice work yesterday DS. Hope you hit that late P4 many times.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    roundtrippa wrote: »
    Really nice work yesterday DS. Hope you hit that late P4 many times.

    I did for sure. But had tons of p3's ending with Over Achiever and then more with Battle. Cimpl Man actually made those pay.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    BATTLE OF MIDWAY makes it a banner day. Crush time. You fuckers are pretty quiet, i hope we all got paid.

    Battle Of Midway and Reach The World are each headed for the Santa Anita Derby.

    I thought Reach The World was best, fwiw. Broke a tad slow and shuffled back, buried in traffic most of the way (taking dirt in the face), then came out and finished real well to miss by a neck. Btw, i heard Baffert say on radio a few weeks back that Reach The World "needs a mile and an eighth".
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    Dude. I love Plastered. And the Spawr maiden. Thursday.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited March 2017
    Anyone else seeing a problem with posts that used the "Quote" box?
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Dude. I love Plastered. And the Spawr maiden. Thursday.

    Spawr got us $3.60 Animal is a runner.

    Let's see what Plastered can drum up.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited March 2017
    Not even a ride on Plastered. Fuck Stevens. Thank god we had a decent day or I would be livid.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Not even a ride on Plastered. Fuck Stevens. Thank god we had a decent day or I would be livid.

    Plastered came back to win well at a mile.
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