Sidney's Candy and the Derby pace
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Just posted this on another forum, after a guy said that he was dead-against Sidney's Candy in the Derby because he's a"committed frontrunner". Interestingly, it seems like i was making the exact same argument with The Pamplemousse last year. I'd love to hear you guys' thoughts on this matter, as the projected Derby pace is always a huge component when handicapping the race.
I agree 100% that you don't want the pacesetter in the Derby. On rare occasion they'll win, but far more often they get toasted and finish well-beaten. I disagree however that Sidney's Candy is a "committed frontrunner". Has he gone wire-to-wire in each of his two-turn prep races? Sure. But in his entire career, he has sat behind the leader more often than he's been on the lead himself. And even during his recent frontrunning win, it's been obvious that he relaxes well. Btw, if you have access to the NBC broadcast, right before the race started they went to Donna Brothers on horseback, who said that she just spoke briefly with Talamo, who told her that it doesn't matter if Sidney's Candy is on the lead or not. He said that in a perfect world, he's be on the lead, but that it didn't matter either way. So there you have it, straight from the jockey's mouth. Do jockeys lie sometimes? LOL, sure they do, but i think you can tell from mthe horse's PP's that he appears to be telling the truth here. Sure, Sidney's Candy enjoyed very soft leads in both the San Felipe and SA Derby. But the way that those races unfolded, Talamo would've been foolish not to take the horse to the lead. That's pretty much exactly what he said in the Brothers interview, if they gimme a soft lead i'll gladly take it. It doesn't mean the horse is committed to the lead, it's just the way things have worked out recently. Sure, he's fast, but that's generally considered a good thing. And ponder this for a bit. If the pace in the Derby is fast, who has more experience handling that type of thing? Eskendereya or Sidney's Candy? Maybe i'm flat-out wrong, but i think it's highly unlikely that Sidney's Candy goes to the lead in the Derby. Will he take the lead if no one else wants it? You bet your ass he will. But i think it's more likely he stalks.
Hey, you guys wanna hear something funny? After watching Sidney's Candy's debut @ Del Mar last year, i was incredibly impressed by the Sadler colt. I thought he was the best 2yo i had seen all year. I wouldn't have been surprised at all if he turned out to be one of the Derby favorites. What's funny about that? The Sadler colt i'm talking about is not Sidney's Candy. It was his barnmate Samardo, who finished right behind him in third. Unfortunately, Samardo was injured a few weeks later and never ran again. Funny how these things work out.
I agree 100% that you don't want the pacesetter in the Derby. On rare occasion they'll win, but far more often they get toasted and finish well-beaten. I disagree however that Sidney's Candy is a "committed frontrunner". Has he gone wire-to-wire in each of his two-turn prep races? Sure. But in his entire career, he has sat behind the leader more often than he's been on the lead himself. And even during his recent frontrunning win, it's been obvious that he relaxes well. Btw, if you have access to the NBC broadcast, right before the race started they went to Donna Brothers on horseback, who said that she just spoke briefly with Talamo, who told her that it doesn't matter if Sidney's Candy is on the lead or not. He said that in a perfect world, he's be on the lead, but that it didn't matter either way. So there you have it, straight from the jockey's mouth. Do jockeys lie sometimes? LOL, sure they do, but i think you can tell from mthe horse's PP's that he appears to be telling the truth here. Sure, Sidney's Candy enjoyed very soft leads in both the San Felipe and SA Derby. But the way that those races unfolded, Talamo would've been foolish not to take the horse to the lead. That's pretty much exactly what he said in the Brothers interview, if they gimme a soft lead i'll gladly take it. It doesn't mean the horse is committed to the lead, it's just the way things have worked out recently. Sure, he's fast, but that's generally considered a good thing. And ponder this for a bit. If the pace in the Derby is fast, who has more experience handling that type of thing? Eskendereya or Sidney's Candy? Maybe i'm flat-out wrong, but i think it's highly unlikely that Sidney's Candy goes to the lead in the Derby. Will he take the lead if no one else wants it? You bet your ass he will. But i think it's more likely he stalks.
Hey, you guys wanna hear something funny? After watching Sidney's Candy's debut @ Del Mar last year, i was incredibly impressed by the Sadler colt. I thought he was the best 2yo i had seen all year. I wouldn't have been surprised at all if he turned out to be one of the Derby favorites. What's funny about that? The Sadler colt i'm talking about is not Sidney's Candy. It was his barnmate Samardo, who finished right behind him in third. Unfortunately, Samardo was injured a few weeks later and never ran again. Funny how these things work out.
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Sydney's Candy will be near the front, but I don't see him on the lead at any of the first two calls. I personally think he's get first run at the leaders and see what he can do from there.
It isn't necessarily the fractions that have me against this one, its the fashion of the races. Last two races he has never even been looked in the eye, never battled, always looked comfortable. I just wonder how he's going to handle things without having the perfect setup his last two races gave him.
And just as a brief example, although clearly different scenarios, look at Rule. Two very game wins without ever being battled, next race he sees pressure from Pulsion and crumbles in the stretch.
That's exactly what i've seen too. Doesn't necessarily prove much after the soft pace he's enjoyed in his last two starts, but it's definitely encouraging that the increasing distance hasn't bothered him up to this point. If anything, it looks like he's getting stronger. I defintely think he's one of the main contenders, based on what we've seen so far.