Friday night play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Hollywood - Race 5
#1 Strawberry Tart (4/1 ml)
Kind of a good news/bad news situation here, but considering the price i think the good news outweighs the bad. This comebacking stakes horse looked absolutely sensational in her only previous start over tonight's 6-furlong turf layout, taking off like a rocketship in the straightaway to blow past the field and win going away. Also of note is that that race happened to come at night, under the lights, same as this one will (and i'm guessing her being entered on a Friday night may not be a coincidence here). She also won her next start, which also came at night on the Hollywood turf course. Going a bit further, note the return of Martin Garcia here, who is a nose away from being 3-for-4 on this filly, and was on board for that huge performance over the layout that i mentioned. Has reportedly been training well for her return, and the long layoff doesn't seem to be much of an issue considering that she previously won by 14 lengths coming off an even longer layoff. I fully expect a strong effort from this filly tonight. So wait, where's the bad news, right? Well, it has nothing to do with Strawberry Tart, just the fact that the 5/2 ml favorite here (Unzip Me) owns what appears to be a major pace advantage. She's also previously gone wire-to-wire over this course, and in fact has led wire-to-wire while winning her last 4 starts in a row, the last couple over some pretty solid stakes fields. That's a big problem, one that Strawberry Tart might not be able to overcome here. I do however think that Strawberry Tart can run her down if she's able to reproduce her previous start over the course, and while very difficult, i think it's certainly possible given the very similar conditions that i mentioned. And Unzip Me figures to get hammered at the windows here, meaning that Strawberry Tart should start at an inflated price, especially when you consider that course specialist Dotsy Jean (4-for-5 over this layout, including a win over Unzip Me) will undoubtedly take a lot of money as well. Just think there's going to be a lot of value on Strawberry Tart here. I would also consider using her in an exacta behind Unzip Me, in case she runs up behind her for second, which could very well happen here.
HRT record:
68 for 249 (27%)
$585.20 mutuels ($8.61 avg)
#1 Strawberry Tart (4/1 ml)
Kind of a good news/bad news situation here, but considering the price i think the good news outweighs the bad. This comebacking stakes horse looked absolutely sensational in her only previous start over tonight's 6-furlong turf layout, taking off like a rocketship in the straightaway to blow past the field and win going away. Also of note is that that race happened to come at night, under the lights, same as this one will (and i'm guessing her being entered on a Friday night may not be a coincidence here). She also won her next start, which also came at night on the Hollywood turf course. Going a bit further, note the return of Martin Garcia here, who is a nose away from being 3-for-4 on this filly, and was on board for that huge performance over the layout that i mentioned. Has reportedly been training well for her return, and the long layoff doesn't seem to be much of an issue considering that she previously won by 14 lengths coming off an even longer layoff. I fully expect a strong effort from this filly tonight. So wait, where's the bad news, right? Well, it has nothing to do with Strawberry Tart, just the fact that the 5/2 ml favorite here (Unzip Me) owns what appears to be a major pace advantage. She's also previously gone wire-to-wire over this course, and in fact has led wire-to-wire while winning her last 4 starts in a row, the last couple over some pretty solid stakes fields. That's a big problem, one that Strawberry Tart might not be able to overcome here. I do however think that Strawberry Tart can run her down if she's able to reproduce her previous start over the course, and while very difficult, i think it's certainly possible given the very similar conditions that i mentioned. And Unzip Me figures to get hammered at the windows here, meaning that Strawberry Tart should start at an inflated price, especially when you consider that course specialist Dotsy Jean (4-for-5 over this layout, including a win over Unzip Me) will undoubtedly take a lot of money as well. Just think there's going to be a lot of value on Strawberry Tart here. I would also consider using her in an exacta behind Unzip Me, in case she runs up behind her for second, which could very well happen here.
HRT record:
68 for 249 (27%)
$585.20 mutuels ($8.61 avg)
Comments
Completely disagree. Unzip Me, IMO, is going to get crushed at the windows. Anything over 8/5 would shock me. I personally like Annihilation here, as I liked the way he made up ground last start when things weren't really falling his way.
Win on Annihilation and Strawberry Tart. Exacta box them w. Unzip me.
Great prices for the ex and tri if you put it together though.
Nice call on Minute Limit.....ran second @ 14/1