Saturday play from DiscreetPicks.com
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Saratoga - Race 6
#7 Economic Summit (10/1 ml)
I wasn't expecting to be on anyone but Astrology here (more on him in a second), but this expensive OBS grad for Violette comes into the race off three straight drills with the older Litigation Risk, who came out of those drills to win an allowance race by open lengths last Saturday at this same distance. That's hard to argue with @ 10/1. Today's rider Maragh is only 1-for-21 with Violette, but guess who the winner was? Yep, it was Litigation Risk last Saturday. Big value here.
As for Astrology, you probably remember that i was huge on him in his debut, and apparently i wasn't the only one, as he got bet down from a 5/1 morning line to go off as the 8/5 favorite. That was due in large part (i'm guessing) to the fact that he had worked several times with Wine Police, a huge open-lengths winner for Asmussen earlier in the meet who figures to go off as the second choice in the Grade 1 Hopeful next week. As for the actual race, Astrology did indeed run well, battling head-and-head for the lead most of the way while caught in tight quarters along the rail. He eventually gave it up late and tired to third, but i do believe he was probably a bit intimidated along the inside, and i fully expect him to move forward in start #2 today. As for his recent training, he worked with the solid older stakes-type Captain Cherokee on Aug 25, and it's definitely worth noting that Asmussen had also trained Kantharos with that one, so it's clear he still holds this horse in high regard. All that being said, Astrology figures to get bet pretty hard again today (his 4/1 ml notwithstanding), so i think it's clear where the value lies. Also, assuming Economic Summit shows speed here (which seems pretty likely), it's possible Astrology gets caught down along the rail again. Wouldn't shock me though if Astrology wins and wins big, so if you're betting exactas (or whatever) he's clearly a must-use. Could very well offer some value with our longshot, too.
HRT record:
71 for 263 (27%)
$602.40 mutuels ($8.48 avg)
#7 Economic Summit (10/1 ml)
I wasn't expecting to be on anyone but Astrology here (more on him in a second), but this expensive OBS grad for Violette comes into the race off three straight drills with the older Litigation Risk, who came out of those drills to win an allowance race by open lengths last Saturday at this same distance. That's hard to argue with @ 10/1. Today's rider Maragh is only 1-for-21 with Violette, but guess who the winner was? Yep, it was Litigation Risk last Saturday. Big value here.
As for Astrology, you probably remember that i was huge on him in his debut, and apparently i wasn't the only one, as he got bet down from a 5/1 morning line to go off as the 8/5 favorite. That was due in large part (i'm guessing) to the fact that he had worked several times with Wine Police, a huge open-lengths winner for Asmussen earlier in the meet who figures to go off as the second choice in the Grade 1 Hopeful next week. As for the actual race, Astrology did indeed run well, battling head-and-head for the lead most of the way while caught in tight quarters along the rail. He eventually gave it up late and tired to third, but i do believe he was probably a bit intimidated along the inside, and i fully expect him to move forward in start #2 today. As for his recent training, he worked with the solid older stakes-type Captain Cherokee on Aug 25, and it's definitely worth noting that Asmussen had also trained Kantharos with that one, so it's clear he still holds this horse in high regard. All that being said, Astrology figures to get bet pretty hard again today (his 4/1 ml notwithstanding), so i think it's clear where the value lies. Also, assuming Economic Summit shows speed here (which seems pretty likely), it's possible Astrology gets caught down along the rail again. Wouldn't shock me though if Astrology wins and wins big, so if you're betting exactas (or whatever) he's clearly a must-use. Could very well offer some value with our longshot, too.
HRT record:
71 for 263 (27%)
$602.40 mutuels ($8.48 avg)
Comments
Economic Summit never really got involved. Feel like i blew this one. I did have a smaller win bet on Astrology (one-third the size of my bet on Economic Summit), but i still lost money on the race.
Economic Summit entered @ Belmont in 7th.