Saturday Breeder's Cup Selections and Analysis
FlyinLate
Senior Member
Juvenile Turf
#11 Rough Sailing
I've been high on this horse since I caught him with an eye popping victory live at Arlington this summer. He ran a bang up second to Major Gain in his follow-up stakes performance after the maiden only to come back flat in a Keeneland stakes after steadying. He makes his long awaited turf return (where he broke his maiden, coming from the back and outclosing an entire field after a 51s half). The Euros seem off their game this year on the firm turf so I'm taking a stab against.
Use with #3 Mantoba and #8 Banned
Sprint
#9 Supreme Summit
This closer was gobbling up ground in his last to nearly nail Smiling Tiger after swinging wide. There should be pace galore in this race and this should allow Supreme Summit to tuck in nicely from the outside draw and make one clean run at them late. He's been lightly raced this year and their goal has always been here.
Use with #1 Big Drama and #3 Wise Dan
Turf Sprint
#9 Rose Catherine and #12 California Flag
Well I couldn't make up my mind here, so I'll be avoiding any gimmicks here and just betting two horses on the nose to win. Rose Catherine has been brialliant all year, proving to be versatile in a race that it seems necessary. California Flag would be the post time favorite had he won at Keeneland, but as we've heard time and time again, some horses don't take to the Keeneland turf. This angle works. Arlington is very similar in that many horses don't take to it, after a shotty effort, you can catch them at great prices their next out. He's been training well enough and worth a shot at a good price.
Juvenile
#2 Boys at Tosconova
My main concern is the distance here, but I was unbelievably impressed in his last. Yes, Uncle Mo's smashing performance is hard to deny, but I encourage everyone to rewatch Boys at Tosconova's last. Ramon NEVER got busy on him, or even came close. That length victory could have easily been 6 had he gotten into him early and rode him out. Instead they stayed reserved to save him for today. Dutrow claims he is the best 2yo he has ever trained, we will see tonight.
Use with #1 Biondetti anbd #7 Uncle Mo
Mile
#9 Sidney's Candy
Next to the classic, this is the race I am most excited for. Sidney's Candy's performance in the La Jolla has earned next to no respect after setting a track record, blitzing through ridiculous fractions, and running away with it. To top things off, the horse he battled for the lead with (3rd or 4th choice, not some 80-1), was ran dizzy and ended up running last nearly into the stands. The layoff is the negative, but also the only reason we will get the price we want.
Use with #3 Gio Ponti and #10 Goldikova
Dirt Mile
#2 Tizway
Ultra impressive horse all year. Only two horses to recently beat him, Musket Man and Quality Road, are in the Classic. Those horses, whom I think both are better at a mile, only put him away by a few shy lengths in his second race of the year. He came up huge in his last winning by five and clearly loves the one mile distance. He isn't like many who are shortening up or stretching out to find the right niche, this one LOVES this distance.
Use with #3 Aikenite and #5 Here Comes Ben
Turf
#4 Debussy
After coming home strong in the Arlington Million he came back with a good effort back in Europe, beaten by favorite Twice Over, but staying on well against a tough bunch. He likes the firm turf, which is hard to say for other Euros, and should be a playable price (I'm thinking 6-1 with scratch of Workforce). He's really come into himself this year and they have been aiming here since his big Arlington Million win.
Use with #5 Al Khali and #7 Behkabad
Classic
#8 Zenyatta
Let's hope the Queen makes history.
#11 Rough Sailing
I've been high on this horse since I caught him with an eye popping victory live at Arlington this summer. He ran a bang up second to Major Gain in his follow-up stakes performance after the maiden only to come back flat in a Keeneland stakes after steadying. He makes his long awaited turf return (where he broke his maiden, coming from the back and outclosing an entire field after a 51s half). The Euros seem off their game this year on the firm turf so I'm taking a stab against.
Use with #3 Mantoba and #8 Banned
Sprint
#9 Supreme Summit
This closer was gobbling up ground in his last to nearly nail Smiling Tiger after swinging wide. There should be pace galore in this race and this should allow Supreme Summit to tuck in nicely from the outside draw and make one clean run at them late. He's been lightly raced this year and their goal has always been here.
Use with #1 Big Drama and #3 Wise Dan
Turf Sprint
#9 Rose Catherine and #12 California Flag
Well I couldn't make up my mind here, so I'll be avoiding any gimmicks here and just betting two horses on the nose to win. Rose Catherine has been brialliant all year, proving to be versatile in a race that it seems necessary. California Flag would be the post time favorite had he won at Keeneland, but as we've heard time and time again, some horses don't take to the Keeneland turf. This angle works. Arlington is very similar in that many horses don't take to it, after a shotty effort, you can catch them at great prices their next out. He's been training well enough and worth a shot at a good price.
Juvenile
#2 Boys at Tosconova
My main concern is the distance here, but I was unbelievably impressed in his last. Yes, Uncle Mo's smashing performance is hard to deny, but I encourage everyone to rewatch Boys at Tosconova's last. Ramon NEVER got busy on him, or even came close. That length victory could have easily been 6 had he gotten into him early and rode him out. Instead they stayed reserved to save him for today. Dutrow claims he is the best 2yo he has ever trained, we will see tonight.
Use with #1 Biondetti anbd #7 Uncle Mo
Mile
#9 Sidney's Candy
Next to the classic, this is the race I am most excited for. Sidney's Candy's performance in the La Jolla has earned next to no respect after setting a track record, blitzing through ridiculous fractions, and running away with it. To top things off, the horse he battled for the lead with (3rd or 4th choice, not some 80-1), was ran dizzy and ended up running last nearly into the stands. The layoff is the negative, but also the only reason we will get the price we want.
Use with #3 Gio Ponti and #10 Goldikova
Dirt Mile
#2 Tizway
Ultra impressive horse all year. Only two horses to recently beat him, Musket Man and Quality Road, are in the Classic. Those horses, whom I think both are better at a mile, only put him away by a few shy lengths in his second race of the year. He came up huge in his last winning by five and clearly loves the one mile distance. He isn't like many who are shortening up or stretching out to find the right niche, this one LOVES this distance.
Use with #3 Aikenite and #5 Here Comes Ben
Turf
#4 Debussy
After coming home strong in the Arlington Million he came back with a good effort back in Europe, beaten by favorite Twice Over, but staying on well against a tough bunch. He likes the firm turf, which is hard to say for other Euros, and should be a playable price (I'm thinking 6-1 with scratch of Workforce). He's really come into himself this year and they have been aiming here since his big Arlington Million win.
Use with #5 Al Khali and #7 Behkabad
Classic
#8 Zenyatta
Let's hope the Queen makes history.