Dialed In's new Derby price
DiscreetCat
Moderator
A few of you guys said you were waiting on it, so here it is:
Wynn (7/1)
Lucky's (12/1)
Wynn (7/1)
Lucky's (12/1)
Comments
LOL @ Wynn (and Lucky's for that matter)
2 race starts, 3 months until Derby, no two turn races = 7-1?
Out of hand. Anyone dumb enough to take that deserves the 7-1 price tag.
Occasionally you can grab a decent price or two, because Vegas is pretty damn incompetent with these things. They compensate for that by just totally low-balling the hell of any horse witha pulse (as you can see), but the good news is that they're often ignorant to new faces on the scene (like Big Brown after his alowance win a few years ago, or The Pamplemousse after his impressive two-turn maiden win). The other things is that some places just copy the Wynn sheet, and therefore, there's a certain lag time between the time that Wynn slashes the price on a horse (like Dialed in) and the time taht another place sees the new Wynn sheet and slashes it themselves (because they're not actually following the races, you know). So sometimes you can go in after-the-fact and pick up some prices that might not have been all that great a few days ago, but might be pretty good after a certain result has transpired. You just need to stay abreast of what's going on at the different hotels around town.
That being said, it's pretty rare when i make a Derby bet these days. The prices are just ridiculous for the most part, and the race is hard enough to pick on raceday, let alone several months out. So there just isn't much opportunity to make +EV wagers in this atmosphere. Breeders Cup futures are much better, but those have gone way downhil in recent years as well.