Kentucky Derby longshot
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
This time of year, I try to look for a horse who has, the following:
1. A meaningful 2 year old campaign, and
2. A horse who has stayed healthy, and
3. A horse who has proved himself at the graded level, and
4. A horse who has been close, but no cigar, and
5. A horse who's bloodlines have the speed and stamina to get the distance, and who's sire/dam showed the trait of getting better with each race.
It's easy right now to get caught up with the likes of Uncle Mo, Bretheran, J. P.'s Gusto, Tapizar, and the 2 Neil Howard FG horses, but it is still a long way to the first Saturday in May.
The horse who fits my formula, at least right now is RIVETING REASON. His latest at SA in the Rob't Lewis was a near miss by a nose, and he continued on well. He has had a long campaign at the best level Calif can offer. Son of Fu Peg, out of a mare who has Roberto and Dynaformer in her blood clearly has the breeding to get the demanding distance. Those of you in California may be more framilure with his trainer than I, because I don't know a hell of alot about Myung Kwon Cho, except that he owns and traines his own horses. I suspect he will have at least two more starts, including the SA Derby, before he heads East to Louisville.
For now, one to keep an eye on.
1. A meaningful 2 year old campaign, and
2. A horse who has stayed healthy, and
3. A horse who has proved himself at the graded level, and
4. A horse who has been close, but no cigar, and
5. A horse who's bloodlines have the speed and stamina to get the distance, and who's sire/dam showed the trait of getting better with each race.
It's easy right now to get caught up with the likes of Uncle Mo, Bretheran, J. P.'s Gusto, Tapizar, and the 2 Neil Howard FG horses, but it is still a long way to the first Saturday in May.
The horse who fits my formula, at least right now is RIVETING REASON. His latest at SA in the Rob't Lewis was a near miss by a nose, and he continued on well. He has had a long campaign at the best level Calif can offer. Son of Fu Peg, out of a mare who has Roberto and Dynaformer in her blood clearly has the breeding to get the demanding distance. Those of you in California may be more framilure with his trainer than I, because I don't know a hell of alot about Myung Kwon Cho, except that he owns and traines his own horses. I suspect he will have at least two more starts, including the SA Derby, before he heads East to Louisville.
For now, one to keep an eye on.
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You tweaked my curiosity so I did some quick research and found out the following:
Cho is a rag merchant who lives in Los Angeles and imports garments from his factories in Korea. He got into the horse business around 1990 and has had good success, primarily with a Street Cry horse. Apparently, he was dissatisfied with his trainers and daily fees so he just started training his own horses, who, like you mentioned, are currently all out of Fu Peg.
He has another 3yo, Premier Pegasus, who is 2 for 2 and expected to run this weekend in the SA SanVicente, 3yos @ 7 furlongs. His last win was graded, but it appears that this one will keep racing short distances for the present time. However, he is out of a Summer Squall mare, Squall Linda, so , depending on this weekend, we may see him in the SA Derby.
Riveting Reason already has a good amount of graded earnings so we may see him next in the March 12 San Felipe @ 1 1/16 or the SA Derby on 4-9-11
Early Vegas lines on Premier Pegasus opened @ 200-1, now 65-1
Line on Riveting Reason opened @ 175-1 now 125-1
PREMIER PEGASUS is 3 for 3, having won in July @ DelMar, then in Oct @ Oak Tree Hollywood, then the next month in a G3 @ Hollywood @ 7 furlongs.
Breezed this past Sunday over the Santa Anita surface 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 15/64. Seems this young colt can lead, stalk, or walk out of the gate and rush up and still win! Definitely one to look at this Sunday in the San Vicente.
The only good part about that race for me was that it was the last race I bet. I got absolutely destroyed this afternoon with what was certainly my worst day of 2011.
As of 10 minutes ago on sportsbetting.com Premier Pegasus is still at 50/1.
I just booked a small future after that performance. I highly doubt he will be even close to those odds 24hrs from now.
Me too, i went 0-for-7.
Even Brethren went down in flames. I didn't bet him, but i have a 175/1 Derby future on him, so i really wanted to see him do well.
The closest i came to a winner Tizway (7/2), who ran third by less than a length in the Gulfstream Park Handicap.
LOL, what took you so long?
YES! Premier Pegasus ran the last 1/4 in Derby Time. Also showed an ability to sit back off a killer pace and make a move when asked, and a hell of a move it was. However, he will need to show continued improvement, which may be hard to do after that performance.
I thought Uncle Mo looked great, but all horses tend to look good when working in company with inferior competition. At the Derby, he won't get too far running pedestrian fractions like he did yesterday. His Wood performance will tell us alot about this good looking champion.
Next Saturday's REBEL is by far the most competitive of the derby prep races. I would not be surprised if the running order from first to last is separated by 3 lengths or less.
I guess Pletcher will have some decisions to make regarding Brethren, who was the biggest disappointment so far. Might be a Illinois or Penn Derby type of horse.