The Factor; NO FACTOR

John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
edited May 2015 in Horse Racing Forum
Today's feature San Vincente At Santa Anita, carded as race 8, is , or has the possibility of being one of the best races of the weekend. All eyes are focused on The Factor, who set a new track record on opening weekend at SA. However, he has only started twice at the msw level and his first was very ordinary, and the second was, by all accounts, a freak performance. Hence, at 7/5 I will look elsewhere as there is a good chance that the Factor will bounce big time and, without doubt, will be tested on the front end by several of the fastest horses on the West Coast.

#5 INDIAN WINTER, 9/2, has proven ability to close well and get good late pace figures in a field full of early speed.. His last race late pace figures set him up well to close into a group of burnt out speedsters.

#3 SWAY AWAY, 4-1, closed well last summer at DelMar in a grade 2 behind J P's Gusto. String of bullet works coming into this race and the presence of Garrett Gomez only makes this horse more attractive.

#8 PREMIER PEGASUS, 8-1, is one of the few proven at 7 furlongs. Conditioner Cho enters this son of Fu Peg and a Summer Squall mare off 3 straight wins on the synthetic, and his bloodline screams out that he will take to the dirt surface. Will probably sit off the speed battle up front and should benefit from the fierce battle up front, and certainly has the breeding and recent conditioning to be the Factor( no pun intended) at a big price.

Exacta Box 3-5-8

GOOD LUCK!
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Comments

  • MikenyceMikenyce Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Good writeups Thanks. I might take a shot with #8 Premier Pegasus
  • Horsin~AroHorsin~Aro Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Taking a shot on the #6 City Cool with $50 win $100 place
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Actually a pretty tough race, but i'm not sure i'd be looking to fade The Factor in any kind of sprint rcae right now. Especially since you know that Baffert wants to pick up some graded earnings for the colt, and knows that this is going to be one of his best opportunities. He's sure to be cranked up here.

    Along those lines, note the 7-furlong workout. Baffert's big training angle is the 7-furlong drill, has been for as long as i can remember. You rarely see a Baffert horse wiith a 7-furlong drill run poorly. It's not something he does real often, either.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Actually a pretty tough race, but i'm not sure i'd be looking to fade The Factor in any kind of sprint race right now. Especially since you know that Baffert wants to pick up some graded earnings for the colt, and knows that this is going to be one of his best opportunities. He's sure to be cranked up here.

    Along those lines, note the 7-furlong workout. Baffert's big training angle is the 7-furlong drill, has been for as long as i can remember. You rarely see a Baffert horse wiith a 7-furlong drill run poorly. It's not something he does real often, either.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Ok CAT, you're right, I won't fade The Factor, but only because the #5 Indian Winter is a late scratch, don't know why it was just now listed. But I still think The Factor will have some competition today. Ex Bx 3-7-8

    GOOD LUCK!
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Could be that the scratch of the #5 and the #9 were made earlier today, buy they just showed up a few minutes ago on Twin Spires. could be that Twin spires was tardy in making the change, but they are usually very good abut getting that info up. 10 min to post, GOOD LUCK!
  • Horsin~AroHorsin~Aro Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Nice race by both the 7 and 3. #6 that I played looked like he plain lost interest coming midway round the bend. I cant believe he tired in just a 7F race
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    Is it too late to get a futures bet down on Sway Away?
    In the just concluded race, it appears that we were watching some very good sprinters, and one horse who should continue on the Derby Trail.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    I was thinking about a future on Sway Away myse lf. He showed a huge stride down the lane and looks like he might stretch out pretty well. He was able to pick up some earnings today, too. Would need a pretty big price though.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Just checked, and Sway Away was only 65/1 on the Wynn sheet. Before the race.
  • MikenyceMikenyce Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    65-1 isnt that bad of a price. If the horse runs the way he did yesterday in the Santa Derby he isnt going to lose. I mean Dialed In closed at 8-1 in the futures yes he was impressive but has only run 2 races? I still think the bargain was all other 3 yo's at 2-1.
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    i love it when everyone jumps on the back of a horse who runs late and never gets there.....he will be over bet in his next race and he will run 3rd or so...happens all the time especially in ca.....chocolate candy..mr hot stuff is just naming 2....let him win next out before we crownd him.....Baffert intends to take it slow with The Factor | Daily Racing Form
  • HoudiniHoudini Senior Member
    edited February 2011
    IMO Jaycito is Bafferts best derby horse hes working up a storm in the morning ,follow closely,especially the SA DEBRY.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    I'm not really getting all the love for Jaycito, He was beaten a mile in the BC Juvenile, and hasn't run since. And he gets listed in the KDFW @ 20/1?

    I did talk to a friemd of mine a couple of months ago who said that he liked Jaycito, mentioning that he had a nightmare trip in the Juvenile. I think the fact that Baffert hasn't run him yet might be indicative of some type of problem, though i guess he does have some graded earnings already.
  • MikenyceMikenyce Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    rayphil wrote: »
    i love it when everyone jumps on the back of a horse who runs late and never gets there.....he will be over bet in his next race and he will run 3rd or so...happens all the time especially in ca.....chocolate candy..mr hot stuff is just naming 2....let him win next out before we crownd him.....Baffert intends to take it slow with The Factor | Daily Racing Form


    Good call Ray.
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    Not much talent here to talk about. No speed in the race and The Factor didn't really run that fast. Uncle Mo is much better than anything here.
  • Horsin~AroHorsin~Aro Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    The field in the Rebel compared to Uncle Mo fields would be I guess 75000 alowance vs 7500 claimers. I doubt Pletcher enjoyed seeing what he saw today.
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    draynay....you said no speed in that race but didnt say nothing about your superstar going 25 for the first 1/4 going a mile....the factor will be a factor...even if it is just a pace thing.....and illl take baffert over pletcher anyday...
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    thanks mike...happens too often..people always love horses who close fast and never get there...what sway away go off at 8-5....how do we know that sway away isnt a late closing sprinter...
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    Uncle Mo ran 2 turns faster as a 2 year old. The Factor looks good when he is the lone speed but when will that happen again ?
  • cinfrontcinfront Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    Draynay, why must you shoot this horse's outstanding performance. Man, give him his due. Uncle Mo has the same running style. The Factor's final time inthe Reble would have made him the Breeders Cup Juvi Champ, running a 1 1/16 in 1:42 flat with Uncle Mo winning in 1:42 3/5. Inthe Derby I hope Johnny V. dosen't do that stupid move or plan that he pull against Rachel Alexander's race and knocking both horses out of contention, cause that exactly what he'll do setting it up for Dailed in and the rest of the closing field.
    Moderate pace and they both come across the wire one-two with the best horse sustaining his bid.
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    Until The Factor wins a G1 race I will consider him a complete pretender. In the Arkansas he will have company and when he does he will fold like a cheap suit.
  • InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    Draynay wrote: »
    Until The Factor wins a G1 race I will consider him a complete pretender. In the Arkansas he will have company and when he does he will fold like a cheap suit.

    Bull Shit.:drinking:
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    Pletcher will make sure he sees some speed in the Arkansas.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    Draynay wrote: »
    Until The Factor wins a G1 race I will consider him a complete pretender. In the Arkansas he will have company and when he does he will fold like a cheap suit.

    Until Uncle Mo does something other than run a half in under 50 seconds on an uncontested lead against a bunch n1x allowance horses, he is a waste of time and will be a money pit for the Derby.

    I love how you'll trash The Factor not being able to stretch out, then he does, and you knock him anyways.

    Yet Uncle Mo wins in a very unimpressive manner and you come praising to heaven about a triple crown horse.
  • InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    Draynay wrote: »
    Pletcher will make sure he sees some speed in the Arkansas.

    So.:drinking:
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    my point on uncle mo is this...he is going into the derby off of 2 races...but how much did he get out of the cheap race in his last...so really he will be going off of one race...to be honest i dont think you will see uncle mo in the gate in the derby....his schedule is a little off if you aske me...pletcher seems like he dont know what to do unlike baffert who has everything planned...
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    I feel like I am living Big Brown all over again. Geez. Some years it's as plain as the nose on your face. Uncle Mo is just much better than anything I have seen in a long time. His 108 Beyer ON THE TRACK they will be running the Derby on sticks out like a sore thumb just like it did for Street Sense. I am still driving around the money I won on Street Sense. The Factor has beaten a bunch of California horses that won't be in the Derby. At the Arkansas he won't have that luxury. Pletcher will send some speed to see if the horse is for real or atleast make him run for his life. Either way Pletcher wins.
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited March 2011
    Baffert was the man 10 years ago but what has he done lately ? Pletcher is the new man on the block and his plan with Uncle Mo is right on schedule just like Big Brown.
  • InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
    edited March 2011
    Draynay wrote: »
    Baffert was the man 10 years ago but what has he done lately ? Pletcher is the new man on the block and his plan with Uncle Mo is right on schedule just like Big Brown.

    Baffert is a Genius about horses, Don't under sell that Man.:drinking:
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