Rebel Stakes
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
I'm just about to jump out of my skin with anticipation over the BIG prep race next Saturday. I can't freakin wait!
I know The Factor is fast. In fact, he is damned fast. But, I don't think he is the kind of horse who once he is headed will fight back. Conversely, I believe he will fold like a wet blanket. Right now, the horse to beat is J.P.'s Gusto, who was coming late in the one mile Southwest, so the extra 1/16 will set him up perfectly. Also, given the way Bretheren tanked yesterday in the Tampa Bay Derby, it is almost a certainty that Ramon is still looking for his Derby mount, so I fully expect him to return to Oaklawn to see if J.P. is that horse. The California shipper, SWAY AWAY, is another who I think has a good chance to score. As you recall, he was running best of all in last against The Factor.
After those two, I could not separate the others with any degree of certainty. The rest of the field is proven and all capable of pulling off a win in this most competitive race. I can't wait!
I know The Factor is fast. In fact, he is damned fast. But, I don't think he is the kind of horse who once he is headed will fight back. Conversely, I believe he will fold like a wet blanket. Right now, the horse to beat is J.P.'s Gusto, who was coming late in the one mile Southwest, so the extra 1/16 will set him up perfectly. Also, given the way Bretheren tanked yesterday in the Tampa Bay Derby, it is almost a certainty that Ramon is still looking for his Derby mount, so I fully expect him to return to Oaklawn to see if J.P. is that horse. The California shipper, SWAY AWAY, is another who I think has a good chance to score. As you recall, he was running best of all in last against The Factor.
After those two, I could not separate the others with any degree of certainty. The rest of the field is proven and all capable of pulling off a win in this most competitive race. I can't wait!
Comments
Blind Luck and Harve De Grace will warm things up in the GIII Azeri Stakes for 4yo up fillies.
Racing Secretary Pat Pope expects 13 starters in the Rebel.
The Factor
Sway Away
J.P.'s Gusto
Archarcharch
Caleb's Posse
Dreaminofthewin
Alteration
Elite Alex
Glint
Bluegrass Jam
JW Blue
Pico's Pride
Saratoga Red
J.P.'s Gusto easily blew out 6 furlongs yesterday in 1:12.2. Looks like he is ready to fire a big one if he gets a clean break.
This one defeated Elite Alex fairly handily (EA came back to run 2nd to ArchArchArch) and then came back on the same day as the Southwest, earlier in the program, and romped by 5.
He's on the rise and with all the big names drawn in should offer great value.
I also, really like alternation a lot. I will probably box 6 horses in the tri. alternation, sway away, picko's pride, elite alex, jw blue, and jp's gusto. this is assuming the factor sets some crazy times and then backs up
Alteration was scheduled to work this morning. Get your ass over there quick and report anything significant! LOL. Arch, et al, is set to work tomorrow. and The Factor & Sway Away are flying in together on Wednesday from Southern California. What do you know about Pico's Pride & JW Blue?
This x2
Picko's pride is also by Cactus Ridge who was 4 for 4 lifetime At 2: Won Arlington Futurity(G3); Won James C Ellis Juvenile S, Won Canterbury Park Juvenile S
J W Blue is a stone cold closer for dutrow. I know for a fact Dutrow thinks that this is one of the best in his barn hands down. saw him workout last week, and he LOVES this track. looks to just float over it. only one start as a three year old and was a win. had a super sluggish start in that race too. finished very strong. The factor might just run some of the speed into the ground. that is why i have him in the mix.
Alteration had a maintence work, going 4 furlongs in an easy 48 3/5
Harve de Grace, the probable favorite in the Azeri on Sat, zipped a bullet 5 f in1:00 3/5
Pico's Pride also zipped along 5 f in 1:00 4/5, and Mac Robertson said that this horse is "READY". I think King has put us on a good longshot here!
LOL. I just checked my virtual stable to find my notes from after Southwest.
Picko's Pride - Win Willy Jr?!?
Thanks for info and I'll look deeper in to JW Blue
One of my friends just gave me a horse today at Hawthorne, Race 8
#5 Little Brown Road, 3-1, who I am told is a short priced fav but is expected to get the job done.
May try to pick up a little dough on a dull Tuesday.
Thanks John. I'll place a wager now. Not much I like at Hawthorne today (nearly went live, glad I opted against it). I'm on Taty's Gold in the first. Throw out last two, recent works show the horse is fit. This one looked good at AP last summer, not sure what happened in the fall.
Win/Place on Taty's Gold.
I have some good info today on a horse running 1 mile on turf at gulf, in the 8th race. Asst trainer I know thinks this 10-1 shot will run'em all down late. Will post later if info and weather look reliable.