Football Info
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
Seems that NCAA teams who have more 5th year senior starters will cover their first 4 games. Sounds like a stupid stat, but it works. Does anyone kmow how to find out short of going through the team rosters?
In NFL this week:
New Orleans +4 vs Green Bay(super bowl winners year before do not cover well 1st game vs teams with winning records)
Detroit +2 vs Tampa Bay (Bucs are horrible and Lions should be able to pass their way to an opening road victory)
NY Jets -4 vs Dallas (o/u 40 1/2) Jets defense should put dallas down early and keep 'em there! Jets 20 Cowboys 14. Under 40 1/2
In NFL this week:
New Orleans +4 vs Green Bay(super bowl winners year before do not cover well 1st game vs teams with winning records)
Detroit +2 vs Tampa Bay (Bucs are horrible and Lions should be able to pass their way to an opening road victory)
NY Jets -4 vs Dallas (o/u 40 1/2) Jets defense should put dallas down early and keep 'em there! Jets 20 Cowboys 14. Under 40 1/2
Comments
Ray, just as a heads up, my Bears looked god awful last season in the preseason (and the preseason before that). We never really show up until the first game.
Here are some results from last week..I looked at which team had the greater number of 5th year players and were not favored...there are also a couple that were even and getting points at home
The higher number is the first team
NW/BC win
Utah St/Auburn win
Kent St/Al lost
SF/ND win
BYU/Miss both had the same..win
SJ St/Stanford lost
SC/EC both had the same..win
Rice/Tx lost
Oregon/LSU both had the same win
Colo/Hawaii lost
A couple games that had the largest differences:
Cal 11 players higher than Fresno, Cal covered
Northern lll 14 playes higher than Army, N III covered.
I will do the games for the weekend the same as what I am showing here....if you would like all the numbers I compiled, I could fax them to you.
I must clarify...John was lookng for starters, I was looking at the total number of players that are 5th year players which could be just as important as they bring more maturity to a team and can help those red shirt and high school freshmen adjust to a quicker college game. Trying to find 5th year starters would take way more hours than I have to spend on it.
Given that...there are 3 games that have a double digit difference in the number of 5th year players. Here is the first one tonight, back Friday evening with the rest of the weekend.
Oklahoma State -14 has 10 more 5th year players than Arizona
I don't have 5th year starter information. However, here is a list of returning starters in NCAA football. I used a few of these in first week and did well. Would take a bit to determine if 5th year sr's but you could use this as a filter to start with.
2011 Returning Starters!
I used the returning starters in NCAA football the first week with good results. I usually use this the first two weeks. It would take a bit to determine the number of 5th year starters but you can use this as an initial filter to drill down to returning 5th year starters,
I don't think I can post links here so I cut and pasted below: The * means QB is retuning
rk Team OFF DEF ST Total 1 Vanderbilt 11* 8 2 21 2 Michigan 9* 9 2 20 3 San Jose St 7 11 2 20 4 ULM 10* 8 2 20 5 Arizona St 10* 9 0 19 6 Texas A&M 9* 8 2 19 7 Toledo 9* 8 2 19 8 Wyoming 8* 9 2 19 9 Florida St 8 8 2 18 10 Miami, Oh 8* 9 1 18 11 New Mexico 7* 9 2 18 12 Notre Dame 8* 8 2 18 13 Purdue 7* 9 2 18 14 SMU 10* 8 0 18 15 Wake Forest 8* 8 2 18 16 Alabama 6 9 2 17 17 Boston College 8* 7 2 17 18 BYU 10* 6 1 17 19 Cincinnati 5* 11 1 17 20 Clemson 8 7 2 17 21 Colorado 9* 7 1 17 22 Connecticut 6 9 2 17 23 FIU 7* 7 2 17 24 Georgia 8* 7 2 17 25 Kent St 10* 5 2 17 26 Kentucky 6 9 2 17 27 Missouri 9 6 2 17 28 Northwestern 9* 7 1 17 29 Oklahoma 8* 7 2 17 30 Tulsa 8* 8 1 17 31 Virginia 8 7 2 17 32 WKU 7* 8 2 17 33 Ball St 8* 7 1 16 34 Marshall 5 9 2 16 35 Memphis 7* 7 2 16 36 Mississippi 9 5 2 16 37 NC State 8* 8 0 16 38 New Mexico St 7* 7 2 16 39 Penn St 7* 8 1 16 40 Pittsburgh 8* 8 0 16 41 Rice 7* 7 2 16 42 Rutgers 10* 5 1 16 43 Tulane 7* 7 2 16 44 UAB 7* 8 1 16 45 UCLA 7* 8 1 16 46 W Michigan 6* 8 2 16 47 Arkansas 6 7 2 15 48 Arkansas St 6* 7 2 15 49 Colorado St 7* 6 2 15 50 Duke 7* 6 2 15 51 E Michigan 6* 7 2 15 52 Idaho 5 8 2 15 53 Indiana 6 7 2 15 54 LA Tech 6 7 2 15 55 LSU 8* 7 0 15 56 Minnesota 5 9 1 15 57 Miss St 8* 7 0 15 58 Oklahoma St 9* 5 1 15 59 Southern Miss 6* 7 2 15 60 Texas 8* 6 1 15 61 Washington 6 7 2 15 62 Washington St 7* 7 1 15 63 Air Force 6* 7 1 14 64 Akron 6* 7 1 14 65 Baylor 8* 5 1 14 66 Boise St 7* 7 0 14 67 California 7 5 2 14 68 C Michigan 7* 6 1 14 69 East Carolina 5* 7 2 14 70 Fresno St 7 5 2 14 71 Houston 6* 6 2 14 72 Iowa St 5 7 2 14 73 Kansas 8* 6 0 14 74 Maryland 7* 7 0 14 75 N Illinois 9* 4 1 14 76 North Carolina 5 7 2 14 77 North Texas 6* 6 2 14 78 Ohio 8* 4 2 14 79 Temple 8* 5 1 14 80 Troy 4* 8 2 14 81 Utah St 8 5 1 14 82 Arizona 6* 6 1 13 83 Bowling Green 6* 7 0 13 84 Florida Atlantic 7 5 1 13 85 Florida 7* 6 0 13 86 Illinois 6* 6 1 13 87 Miami, Fl 6* 7 0 13 88 Michigan St 6* 6 1 13 89 Nevada 5 7 1 13 90 Ohio St 8* 4 1 13 91 Oregon 6* 5 2 13 92 San Diego St 7* 5 1 13 93 South Carolina 7* 6 0 13 94 Stanford 5* 6 2 13 95 Syracuse 7* 5 1 13 96 Tennessee 7* 6 0 13 97 Texas Tech 5 8 0 13 98 UNLV 7 5 1 13 99 USC 6* 7 0 13 100 Utah 7* 5 1 13 101 UTEP 3 8 2 13 102 Virginia Tech 6 7 0 13 103 West Virginia 8* 4 1 13 104 Buffalo 8* 3 1 12 105 Georgia Tech 6 5 1 12 106 Kansas St 5 6 1 12 107 Middle Tenn 7 3 2 12 108 Navy 7 5 0 12 109 Nebraska 5* 7 0 12 110 Oregon St 7* 4 1 12 111 UCF 7* 4 1 12 112 USF 4* 6 2 12 113 Wisconsin 4 6 2 12 114 Army 6* 4 1 11 115 Louisiana 5* 5 1 11 116 Louisville 3 6 2 11 117 Hawaii 3* 6 1 10 118 Iowa 5 4 1 10 119 TCU 4 4 2 10 120 Auburn 3 4 0 7
I used the returning starters in NCAA football the first week with good results. I usually use this the first two weeks. It would take a bit to determine the number of 5th year starters but you can use this as an initial filter to drill down to returning 5th year starters,
2011 Returning Starters!
GL
Max b
Oklahoma State covered -14 easily last night vs Arizona, don't know if 5th year senior starters made the difference, OSU is pretty salty!
How fuckin bad is the Saints defense? Pretty fuckin bad!!! And on that last play which would have covered the spread, every fuckin Saints lineman is on the ground and the Packer linemen are shootin through to make the goalline stop.
After only one game it is hard to tell if the Saints defense is that bad or the Packers just that good?
Nevertheless, Saints/over looks like the play until Vegas puts the number at +47 1/2.
NCAA Saturday, there is talk about Louisville injuries and Memphis roster trouble. Oh, the Louisville Fla Int'l game is Friday, but in any event I'm fading both. Fla Int'l is usually a bunch of thugs who couldn't get into Miami but are usually very talented. Key injuries for Louisville makes Fla Int'l the play + 3 1/2.
Memphis has had personnel trouble and disciplinary action taken against many starters. Arkansas State is certainly no Arkansas, but the line of Ark St. - 15 pretty much says it all!!!
I bet a 6-point teaser using the Packers +1, Texans -2.5, and Patriots -1. One-third of the way home!
I doubt very seriously if any 5th year starters are on the roster for either Ark St or Memphis, nevertheless, the Memphis QB is questionable for the game and the big line reflects the serious problems at Memphis.
I am getting some very good info on Stafford for Detroit Lions. I am told that everyone is healthy, which was a problem last year, and that Lions will employ a well balanced attack and go for the big play when it presents itself, which may be often vs Bucs defense.
How bad is the Pack def., the Saints amassed 500 yards of offense. The whol game is 1/5 in the redzone. 1 TD, 2FG, and 2 stops!!!!! That is the whole game in a nutshell. The Pack scored 21 pts in the 1st and only 14 the other 3 qtrs and one of those was a 108 yark kickoff return, so basically the offense only had 1 td in the 2nd - 4th quarters???????????
Yet ESPN is already all over their nuts this season
Friday, Sept 9
Missouri +10 has 4 more 5th year players than Arizona St
John Thanks, I will try to help when I can. Thanks for all your useful posts!
Hi, sorry about multiple posts but my posts have to wait for mod review because I am new I guess. Not sure how to avoid.
I used the data before to list all games this weekend with 4 or more diff in returning starters. The * means the Qb is returning: The Total and diff columns exclude Special Teams. The diff column relates to home team on bottom. (Hope formatting comes out better)
Line Off Tot Diff
Missour 7.5 9 15
Arizona State -7.5 10* 19 4
Florida Int 4 7* 15
Louisville -4 3 9 -6
Toledo 18 9* 17
Ohio State -18 8* 12 -5
Miss St -6.5 8* 15
Auburn 6.5 3 7 -8
Hawaii 6.5 3* 9
Washington -6.5 6 13 4
California -6.5 7 12
Colorado 6.5 9* 16 4
TCU -2 4 8
Air Force 2 6* 13 5
Ball State 20.5 8* 15
South Flori -20.5 4* 10 -5
Connecticut 1.5 6 15
Vanderbilt -1.5 11* 19 4
Boston College 7 8* 15
Central Florida -7 7* 11 -4
UL Lafayette 9 5* 10
Kent State -9 10* 15 5
Texas El Pa 19.5 3 11
SMU -19.5 10* 18 7
Iowa St +7 -130
Air Force -110
Army +9.5 -110
Georgia +3 -110
Vandy -2.5 -110
UTEP 10 more 5th year starts +18.5
NM St 4 more.....+20
Hawaii 9 more....+5.5
Nevada 5 more ...+27
Colo 9 more....+6
Penn St 8 more.....+10
TCU ....13 more P
Indiana 2 more......+7
UAB 2 more....+23
NM 1 more.....+36
Mich 3 more +3.5
SJ ST 10 more...+21
Other games
No Dakota....3 more +14
S Ill 12 more....+20.5
Texas St 2 more...+20
Central Ark 1 more... +16
Early games
Oregon St 1 more +21
SD ST 2 more +27
Biggest differences
Nebraska 16 more...-28
TCU 13 more....Pick (listed above)
NW 12 more -32.5
S ILL 12 more +20.5 (listed above)
UTEP 10 more...+18.5 (listed above)
UCF 10 more...-7
SJ St 10 more...+21