Uncle Mo favored in the Classic?

DiscreetCat

I find it hard to say anything bad about Uncle Mo, but i think he's a terrible bet in the Classic. Sure he won around two turns (impressively) at Churchill as a 2yo, and he appears to be back in top form, but there's a huge difference between a romping one-turn win over a sloppy track and winning at 1 1/4 miles in the BC Classic. It wasn't that long ago he was still in the barn recovering from an illness, and the only time he attempted two turns this year, he flopped badly in the Wood Memorial. No doubt there was something wrong with him back then, but conditions aren't ideal this time either, as he's been rushed into the 1 1/4-mile Classic afer returning from the layoff in a 7 furlong sprint @ Saratoga. We all knew he was very tough sprinting when healthy, so as well as he's run since coming back (and he has been very impressive), he really hasn't proven anything new.

He'll be attempting to win his first two-turn race as a 3yo (and only his second ever) in the Breeders Cup Classic of all places, at a distance far beyond anything he's ever tried before, against the toughest field he's ever faced. And for that, he's being listed @ 5/2?

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

I find it hard to say anything bad about Uncle Mo, but i think he's a terrible bet in the Classic. Sure he won around two turns (impressively) at Churchill as a 2yo, and he appears to be back in top form, but there's a huge difference between a romping one-turn win over a sloppy track and winning at 1 1/4 miles in the BC Classic. It wasn't that long ago he was still in the barn recovering from an illness, and the only time he attempted two turns this year, he flopped badly in the Wood Memorial. No doubt there was something wrong with him back then, but conditions aren't ideal this time either, as he's been rushed into the 1 1/4-mile Classic afer returning from the layoff in a 7 furlong sprint @ Saratoga. We all knew he was very tough sprinting when healthy, so as well as he's run since coming back (and he has been very impressive), he really hasn't proven anything new.

He'll be attempting to win his first two-turn race as a 3yo (and only his second ever) in the Breeders Cup Classic of all places, at a distance far beyond anything he's ever tried before, against the toughest field he's ever faced. And for that, he's being listed @ 5/2?

The funny part is, I feel he will go off at even lower odds than his listed morning line.

SirBear

I don't like him in this spot under any circumstances, but he would benefit greatly if Game On Dude scratched. Game On Dude doesn't seem to be the settling type. He will be pressing Mo all the way and I wouldn't be surprised if the Dude puts Mo away.

tmffm

DiscreetCat wrote: »

It wasn't that long ago he was still in the barn recovering from an illness, and the only time he attempted two turns this year, he flopped badly in the Wood Memorial.

No doubt Mo is a bad play as he will be an underlay. However, to get there, one needs to understand the quality of this horse's performances. Being ill and getting run down by two horses that got just about the best trips you'd ever see does not equal "flopped badly". I mean, the horse was sick and he dragged the entire field around the track with him only to get run down late by two suckups. I suspect just about any horse in the history of the game would've LOST with that trip.

Mikenyce

Drawing next to THAS I think the 2 of them will race out and press Game On Dude the whole way. Once again I will be willing to burn my money and play Ice Box. If i lose to Uncle Mo so be it, at least it would be good for racing

rayphil

saw the game on dude work this week and he sat behind like 4 horses and moved up about 4 or 5 wide around the turn and cruised past them rather easy...he looked awesome imo...

DiscreetCat

When a horse goes off at odds of 1/9 and barely manages to run third, i'd call that a flop. Sure, he was most definitely out-of-sorts at the time (and i mentioned that in my original post), but apparently he wasn't so bad off that it prevented Pletcher/Repole from hauling his ass to Churchill Downs and proclaiming that he was still good-to-go for the Derby, even though he really wasn't (as things turned out). Since that time, he was diagnosed with some kind of serious ailment, promptly disappeared for several months, and then just recently (two whole months ago) returned in a sprint race. I didn't see any way at the time that they could possibly have him ready for the Classic, and though he has in fact arrived here as the 5/2 ml favorite, i still just don't see it happening (as far as him winning or even mounting a serious challenge). The horse is a bit of a freak of nature so perhaps the rules are different for him, God Knows he's extremely talented (and i've never denied that), but this is by far the toughest spot of his entire career and he isn't coming into the race under the best of circumstances, far from it. I won't be totally shocked if he wins, but i'll be somewhere close to shocked. We all have different opinions here, and perhaps i'm just flat-out wrong on this issue, who knows. That's how i see it though.

fbwinners

DiscreetCat wrote: »

When a horse goes off at odds of 1/9 and barely manages to run third, i'd call that a flop. Sure, he was most definitely out-of-sorts at the time (and i mentioned that in my original post), but apparently he wasn't so bad off that it prevented Pletcher/Repole from hauling his ass to Churchill Downs and proclaiming that he was still good-to-go for the Derby, even though he really wasn't (as things turned out). Since that time, he was diagnosed with some kind of serious ailment, promptly disappeared for several months, and then just recently (two whole months ago) returned in a sprint race. I didn't see any way at the time that they could possibly have him ready for the Classic, and though he has in fact arrived here as the 5/2 ml favorite, i still just don't see it happening (as far as him winning or even mounting a serious challenge). The horse is a bit of a freak of nature so perhaps the rules are different for him, God Knows he's extremely talented (and i've never denied that), but this is by far the toughest spot of his entire career and he isn't coming into the race under the best of circumstances, far from it. I won't be totally shocked if he wins, but i'll be somewhere close to shocked. We all have different opinions here, and perhaps i'm just flat-out wrong on this issue, who knows. That's how i see it though.

Why waste your time answering someone that is always so negative, and by the way Uncle Mo won't hit the board on Saturday if he makes it to the gate!!!!!

Mikenyce

Im with you on Uncle Mo. Yes if he wins it would be great for racing but in my opinion I also dont think he will hit the board. Going with Ice Box and hoping that this horse has something left when the speed stops!

wire2wire

Looks like the MASSES ARE ASSES SYSTEM applies to this race...w2w

DiscreetCat

I'm looking to bet against Uncle Mo in head-to-head matchups, where he'll probably be favored over several of the top contenders. There might even be a hit-the-board prop, we'll see. They should start surfacing pretty soon.

rayphil

well mo will really need to step up his game in here..The horse has never won past 1 1/16..long layoff and now a 7f and 1m races to a 1 1/4 is pushing it to me...imo repole is just swinging for the fences here...prolly his last race.....but 5-2.....c'mon man...

togaburnsy

i agree with every one here......uncle mo will have a hard time winning this race. he should of went for the mile imo. but whats even worse are the odds.....this horse is an easy toss....win or lose. the network is playing a havre de grace vs. uncle mo trailer....i have questions about both at the classic distance......this is a great betting race.

SirBear

He's not going to take as much money as you think. Watch, he'll open at 7-1 and go off at 9-2. The filly will be the post-time favorite.

2W2P2S

DiscreetCat wrote: »

I'm looking to bet against Uncle Mo in head-to-head matchups, where he'll probably be favored over several of the top contenders. There might even be a hit-the-board prop, we'll see. They should start surfacing pretty soon.

Cris has:
Havre De Grace -135
Uncle Mo +105

Bitowisdom

Mo will be overbet from the get go. At post time, no less than 8/5

Bitowisdom

Sorry, I almost forgot to add......Mo will be finished at the head of the stretch.