Gulfstream Saturday--2 yo races
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
In the 7th race, msw 2 yo 6 1/2 f, TAP has an entry which includes Late Night Action, but he is drawn outside and may sct in favor of a turf debut. This one is fast and is primed for a huge effort, either dirt or grass. Works are something else.
In the 3rd, R Holiday Mood is a 3yo fillie off since June but has been really coming back strong. Tough spot first back but she may be that good!
Others to put in watch list are:
2 yo colts/ El Padrino,
2 yo fillies/ Varisimo, and The Last Meow
In the 3rd, R Holiday Mood is a 3yo fillie off since June but has been really coming back strong. Tough spot first back but she may be that good!
Others to put in watch list are:
2 yo colts/ El Padrino,
2 yo fillies/ Varisimo, and The Last Meow
Comments
#8 KARLOVY VARY, 7/2
Treat yourselves to an early Christmas present on this very live horse. I have been waiting on this one to reappear and she finds a spot here where she should dominate. 2 yo fillie is homebred by top Kentucky horseman Al Campbell and trained by his longtime trainer Rusty Arnold. Top shelf turf pedigree out of Dynaformer and a Pulpit mare. She made her debut last summer at the Spa going 1 1/16 on turf and it was a typical 2yo fillie cluster-fuck beginning as she was bumped hard and pinched, yet she managed to get up for a better than looked 3rd. Appeared next at Keeneland again going 1 1/16 on turf and she was simply superb, breaking maiden in fine fashion. Next stop was at Churchill in the G II Golden Rod Stakes, a race where she tried dirt for first time and she was hung out wide from the # 11 hole. Chased our top pick On Fire Baby wide yet made a very good middle move wide to show push button turn of foot speed only to tire late from her efforts. She has been working on turf at Palm Meadows turf training track and the word is she has a turn of foot push-button speed which should put her in the winner's circle on Christmas Eve! ML of 7/2 may not hold, but she may be the best 5/2 play of the day!
Late Night Action worked heads-up with recent winner Dan and Sheila back on 12/5. As mentioned though, possibility of a scratch here, esspecially since John Velazquez is named aboard both entrants.
The other half of the entry is even more interesting to me. That one, Thunder Moccasin, has worked heads-up on two occasions (11/28 and 11/3) with Algorithms, who is now 2-for-2 after posting a sharp allowance score last week. He's also coming off a heads-up drill with an unrcaed horse named Harris, who is by A.P. Indy out of a Grade 1 stakes-winning Pletcher mare named Pool Land, so there's a decent chance that one might be well-regarded also.
Thunder Moccasin also may have worked with Dan and Sheila, going slightly slower than that one on 12/11 (1:00.79 vs. 1:00.77).
Suspect that Thunder Moccasin may be the stronger half of the entry here. If they both run, that'll be great.
The most impressive races have been run by:
#7, Almusafa: typically, I downgrade horses getting the type of 'perfect' trip this one got 1st time out. She drafted until midstretch, where she dove inside and won in good stride. However, this was a very impressive race for a two year old; and even more so for a debut effort. She was constantly in tight behind horses, forced to repeatedly switch leads, BUT when she got clear midstretch, she exhibited a fine stride, staying straight and on righty lead to the wire. She showed better footwork than most accomplished turf sprinters. She could be anything. There's nothing overly impressive in this race and if the setup doesn't go against her (see below), she wins this one for fun.
#10, Spirited Miss: very impressive debut, as well, running by horses to win in a race that would've gone 1-2 around the track otherwise. This was going 6F but she's shown the ability to go two turns as well. She's the 'other' Casse horse in the race and gets Contreras up --Johnny V rides the other Oxley horse -- the preferred one, apparently. She should be overlooked in the wagering and is probably worth a small win bet fi > 15:1 -- EVEN with Contreras up. She's a must use UNDER in exotics, either way.
***********************************************
This might all be academic if #4, Welcome Dance, is allowed to get things her own way up front. Unless #6, Wholelottashakin, runs with her early, WD will be very hard to run down.
I don't see anything else winning this one.
Thank you for the analysis. This type of write-up would always make your threads better. You're really not a bad 'capper, and certainly you watch races. The jockey bashing gets old (if they suck, or they're women, or whatever, don't play them - just like I would never bet Kerwin John with your money). You've hit some nice prices, show this forum some respect and become a productive member this new year. Cheers.
How does honestly assessing a given ride relate to showing the forum respect? If a jock FUCKS UP a ride, I point it out. If a jock SUCKS, I point that out as well.
I've had more double digit winners (and large exotic payoffs) than ALL THIS FORUM COMBINED, since I came on about 6 months ago. Refresh my memory if I missed any of the BOMBS that all the HANDICAPPERS on this forum have posted. I mean, it's Christmas whenever someone gives out a 3:1 shot here.
My suggestion to you is to:
1) STFU -- you haven't impressed me with your picks, and I could care less what you have to say
2) stop worrying so much about what I do and work on your handicapping
I don't need to post here. And I certainly don't need to post here if I have you chasing me around with your politically correct BS.
Of course, where your opinion sucks, you need to try to get attention in other ways.
Hope that clears it up, ONCE AND FOR ALL, for you.
You throw out so many fucking worthless picks, once in a while they'll hit. For the record, I'm pretty live on here. Picked out IRAD and HECTOR way BEFORE they caught fire. I've been showing a profit with many of my flat bet ideas (You might not have caught the last race at the Hollywood meet). As far as handicapping - I'm looking at the opening day form right now. Regardless, I was trying to be cool in the spirit of the holidays, but you can suck my fucking dick.
Once again, #8 Karlovy Vary is my pick based on what I am hearing from the folks at PMM. My selections are usually based on what and how the horses are coming into their next start. Sure, pp's play some part in my selections, for example I would not use #4 Welcome Dance because being out of Henny Hughes, her bloodlines suggest that she is a sprinter with questionable turf pedigree, and her best fractions of 24/49 probable won't get it today in this race and doubt she will be involved late. #7 Almusafa, has one lone start on AQ turf where she showed sensational late speed figs , but the fractions were pedestrian, 25/52/118. Don't think she will have it that easy today. #10 Spirited miss would have to revert to Oct Woodbine AW surface form to be involved, and her works at PMM since she stopped in the Golden Rod are not impressive.
There is a reason why FB and Husker and others do not post as much as they used to, and I can't say that I blame them. I'm with you Dirty, mr. bigshot longshot capper can suck,
well, you know!!!!
GL and Happy holidays
The fucking guy gives out 7,000 horses and 15 win a price.
For the record too: JG's and Discreet's horse in the 7th at GP won easy @ 3-1 (Christmas?). Also, My picks have been very solid (including a 55-1 2nd and 24-1in my last post). Can we ban this guy, I miss FB and Husker. Even 2W2p2s.
Thunder Moccasin wins @ $8.60 :toast:
Btw, tmffm has been banned. Let's try to keep things civil around here.
Appreciate the two cents. I've always respected you and your opinion, and you've given many live horses over the years. I'm also a little shocked, because last time you checked into one of my few threads, I gave you a 55-1 shot running second and a 25-1 exacta. My post was more an effort to protect our valuable posters and info, than anything else. Your comments caught me off guard, but Happy Holidays anyways King.
I was suprised as well, do you think it was a mock of that banned poster? I think it was in just.
You got me. I almost lost it.... Happy New Year.
I'll be returning to more regular board activity next week when I have more time/funding.
My new year's resolution: win more races.
Harris is entered @ Tampa Bay Downs today.
Harris is entered back @ Gulfstream today. Had a lot of trouble in the Tampa race, and is definbitely worth a look here.
Thank God somebody knows why he was in my stable mail.
Here's a video of the race; Harris broke from the rail:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/TAM/2012/2/4/9/race-9
Never looked in doubt after the break. 9/5 seemed about right, huh?