Fair Grounds play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Fair Grounds - Race 9
#5 Nates Mineshaft (20/1 ml)
Wow. Utter lack of respect for this horse, who to my eyes looks very much like a contender in this race. The likely reason is that he's jumping up to face graded-stakes types after running vs. claiming competition, coupled with the fact that he's starting for a low-profile barn here. The horse has simply been dynamite in his two route starts this winter though, winning off easily (despite trouble) after setting very strong early pace for the course/distance (compare them to the fractions of the Louisiana Handicap, which several of these runners are coming out of), then running even better last time through similar fractions (note that this race came just two days before the Louisiana Handicap). That race i was able to view a replay of, and he was racing completely in hand down the backstretch and was never seriously asked until a few brief moments in the stretch when asked to open up a wide margin, then was totally geared down in the late stages. Also worth noting that he had previously won impressively @ Fair Grounds back in 2010 as well, so he's now a perfect 3-for-3 over the surface; clearly he relishes it. Does face a good bit of early speed here, so he won't have an easy time of it up front (if he even chooses to go for the lead; no real evidence that he can't stalk if need be), but he didn't have an easy lead last time either, as another horse pressed him from the outside, and he was able to shake that off without any problem. Another point to consider is that he's the big longshot here, and as i'm sure you'vbe seen before, oftentimes the other riders will concede the early lead to a big longshot because they assume it's only a matter of time before he spits the bit, or they think that they can breeze by anytime they want to. That scenario would almost certainly work in our favor here, should it develop, but it's not really a necessity, i don't think. Just see no evidence that this horse isn't going to run well and be very competitive, unless perhaps he gets cooked in a speed duel (and some of the others here are just as prone to that as our longshot is). Also note, he came out of the big recent win to post a best-of-46 bullet, so it's probably safe to assume he's still in top form these days. Will be no surprise if he wins this one; no reason he can't.
HRT record:
85 for 317 (27%)
$704.40 mutuels ($8.29 avg)
#5 Nates Mineshaft (20/1 ml)
Wow. Utter lack of respect for this horse, who to my eyes looks very much like a contender in this race. The likely reason is that he's jumping up to face graded-stakes types after running vs. claiming competition, coupled with the fact that he's starting for a low-profile barn here. The horse has simply been dynamite in his two route starts this winter though, winning off easily (despite trouble) after setting very strong early pace for the course/distance (compare them to the fractions of the Louisiana Handicap, which several of these runners are coming out of), then running even better last time through similar fractions (note that this race came just two days before the Louisiana Handicap). That race i was able to view a replay of, and he was racing completely in hand down the backstretch and was never seriously asked until a few brief moments in the stretch when asked to open up a wide margin, then was totally geared down in the late stages. Also worth noting that he had previously won impressively @ Fair Grounds back in 2010 as well, so he's now a perfect 3-for-3 over the surface; clearly he relishes it. Does face a good bit of early speed here, so he won't have an easy time of it up front (if he even chooses to go for the lead; no real evidence that he can't stalk if need be), but he didn't have an easy lead last time either, as another horse pressed him from the outside, and he was able to shake that off without any problem. Another point to consider is that he's the big longshot here, and as i'm sure you'vbe seen before, oftentimes the other riders will concede the early lead to a big longshot because they assume it's only a matter of time before he spits the bit, or they think that they can breeze by anytime they want to. That scenario would almost certainly work in our favor here, should it develop, but it's not really a necessity, i don't think. Just see no evidence that this horse isn't going to run well and be very competitive, unless perhaps he gets cooked in a speed duel (and some of the others here are just as prone to that as our longshot is). Also note, he came out of the big recent win to post a best-of-46 bullet, so it's probably safe to assume he's still in top form these days. Will be no surprise if he wins this one; no reason he can't.
HRT record:
85 for 317 (27%)
$704.40 mutuels ($8.29 avg)
Comments
Thank you very much - - -
Thx
Thank you. Over at the top of the stretch.
This should be on a Handicapping 101 book classic analysis,DC standing ovation.
Actually, after watching the replay, it was over after the first quarter mile.
Bang right back at 9/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
8th race - Fair Grounds - April 01, 2012
Video Race Replay
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Nates Mineshaft 20.80 7.20 4.00
2 Mission Impazible 2.80 2.40
4 Toby's Corner 3.40
$2 Daily Double 6-3 407.20
$2 Exacta 3-2 65.00
$2 Superfecta 3-2-4-6 1,875.80
$2 Trifecta 3-2-4 223.20
$2 Pick 3 7-6-3 (3 correct) 1,236.60
All the sudden Nate is the best older horse in the country. I'm pretty sure he demolished the track record.
GP Florida Derby (G1): Take Charge Indy 95 (A.P. Indy) P. Byrne/C. Borel
GP Gulfstream Oaks S (G2): Grace Hall 89 (Empire Maker) A. Dutrow/J. Castellano
GP Orchid S (G3): Hit It Rich 91 (Smart Strike) C. McGaughey/J. Castellano
GP Rampart S (G3): Awesome Maria 100 (Maria's Mon) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
GP Appleton S (G3): Corporate Jungle 99 (Giant's Causeway) C. Brown/J. Castellano
GP Skip Away S (G3): Fort Larned 108 (E Dubai) I. Wilkes /J. Leparoux
GP Sir Shackleton S: Travelin Man 100 (Trippi) T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez
FG New Orleans Handicap (G2): Nate's Mineshaft 113 (Mineshaft) A. Smith/J. Campbell
FG Louisiana Derby (G2): Hero of Order 90 (Sharp Humor) G. Dorochenko/E. Martin
FG Muniz Jr. Memorial H (G2): Casino Host 98 (Dynaformer) C. Brown/J. Velazquez
FG Fair Grounds Oaks (G2): Believe You Can 96 (Proud Citizen) J. Jones/R. Napravnik
FG Bayou H: Artemus Kitten 93 (Kitten's Joy) M. Maker/R. Napravnik
FG Duncan F. Kenner S: Gantry 99 (Pulpit) R. Faucheux/R. Eramia
FG Costa Rising S: Star Guitar 85 (Quiet American) A. Stall/C. Lanerie
FG Crescent City Derby: Look At the Time 78 (Brahms) W. Hawley/C. Lanarie
FG Bayou St. Johns S: Kissimmee Kyle 91 (Gold Tribute) A. Stall/R. Albarado
FG Crescent City Oaks: She's Prado's Idol 73 (Screen Idol) G. Goins/T. Hebert
FG Red Camelia S: Beverly Belle 85 (Far Out Wadleigh) W. Calhoun/M. Mena
SA Santa Anita Oaks (G1): Willa B Awesome 88 (Awesome Gambler) W. Solis/M. Pedroza
SA Echo Eddie S: Derby Gold 93 (Bertrando) B. Baffert/M. Garcia
SA Evening Jewel S: Warren's Amber 77 (Broadway Moon) J. Gutierrez/E. Flores
SA Sidd Finch S: Calimonco - (Storm Cat) J. Sadler/A. Quinonez
AQU Plugged Nickle S: Catch a Thief 87 (Flatter) T. Hills/E. Castro
He couldn't have won that any easier. Thanks DC for a horse who wins back-to-back @ $20+
Winner of the Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap two back, the former claimer has posted convincing tallies in his last four starts, including three attempts this year, and the Austin Smith-trained speedster probably will be the one to catch in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba
What do you think of his chances on Saturday? He clearly has proven he wasn't a horse for course @ Fairgrounds, but is yet to prove he can settle in and make a run.
Race 3Post: 8:56 PM ETDirt - Fast
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING: $50,000 | PURSE: $35,000
# HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WIN PLACE SHOW
5 Nates Mineshaft J. Loveberry
120Lbs
J. Caldwell $10.40 $5.20 $4.20
2 Basmati L. Quinonez
120Lbs
S. Asmussen $6.00 $4.60
3 Bobcat Jim S. Laviolette
120Lbs
K. Smith $2.80