Ark Derby PP with ML

fbwinners

Look at these ml on this race, Baffert at 9/5 and 5/2 and the rest of the field is BOMBS!!!! I cannot see where the ml maker came up with this set of odds.



$1 Million Arkansas Derby (gr. II, Race 11, 5:45 p.m.), 3YOs, 1 1/8 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer, ML Odds

1. Cozzetti (KY), J Lezcano, 118, D L Romans, 15/1

2. Stat (KY), J R Velazquez, 118, T A Pletcher, 10/1

3. Najjaar (KY), C H Borel, 118, D C Peitz, 15/1

4. Jake Mo (KY), M C Berry, 122, A Milligan, 30/1

5. Secret Circle (KY), R Bejarano, 122, B Baffert, 5/2

6. Isn't He Clever (KY), R Albarado, 122, H Dominguez, 6/1

7. Optimizer (KY), J K Court, 118, D W Lukas, 30/1

8. Atigun (KY), T J Thompson, 118, K G McPeek, 30/1

9. Sabercat (KY), C S Nakatani, 122, S M Asmussen, 15/1

10. Raconteur (KY), C P DeCarlo, 122, T A Pletcher, 15/1

11. Bodemeister (VA), M E Smith, 118, B Baffert, 9/5

Blinkers Off: Isn't He Clever, Bodemeister


Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68844/baffert-has-the-favorites-for-arkansas-derby#ixzz1rmr3bnzp

John Greenhaw

Could be a big weekend for Jon Court? That's what I'm hearing?

FlyinLate

I'm taking another stab at Najjaar.

Mikenyce

Stat

John Greenhaw

It looks like an endurance test to me. Fair chance of an off-track? Right now, it is hard as hell for any horse to come from far back, but very few have gone 1 1/8. Optimizer and Najjaar may need more ground to do their best. Stat is a real unknown, he has been up and down for the last several months. Do not read too much into Johnny going with Stat, which would normally signal that the TAP barn believes that one is the stronger entry. Chris DeCarlo got Raconteur there in last at Laurel, and the Dogwood folks like to dance with the one that brought em'! Raconteur will be asked to keep pace with the leaders and he may just jump up and shock alot of people. He sure has the breeding to be a distance horse. OH----did I forget to mention the two Baffert horses, they just might get out front and never look back, after all, the OP linemaker thinks so. What about this Sunland Park horse---Isn't He Clever? Nothing wrong with him so far? Hope this was helpful. AS you can see, I haven't got a clue?

rayphil

i think you just have to split the baffert pair with a bomb....sabercat???

FlyinLate

fbwinners wrote: »

7. Optimizer (KY), J K Court, 118, D W Lukas, 30/1

LOL. So Optimizer is 30/1 in the Arkansas Derby, yet he closed @ 22-1 in Pool 3 of the Derby future wager. 30/1 is an awful morning line assignment and is likely double his odds (I'm thinking he goes postward around 15/1 or slightly less). The worst part is for the people who took 22/1 on this horse instead of using that money to bet him in Arkansas Derby where he has a better shot.

FlyinLate

FlyinLate wrote: »

LOL. So Optimizer is 30/1 in the Arkansas Derby, yet he closed @ 22-1 in Pool 3 of the Derby future wager. 30/1 is an awful morning line assignment and is likely double his odds (I'm thinking he goes postward around 15/1 or slightly less). The worst part is for the people who took 22/1 on this horse instead of using that money to bet him in Arkansas Derby where he has a better shot.

Clearly I was laughing too hard at this morning line to realize the likelihood it was a typo. Optimizer is actually 6/1 on the morning line lol

liguy3112

Any picks for bluegrass or ark Derby

DiscreetCat

The Ark Derby is tough. I like Bodemeister, i think he's easily the best horse in here, but he'll be bet through the floor and won't be at all playable. Especially from that outside post. Pass for me.

FlyinLate

I agree with DC that Bodemeister is clearly the one to beat. I'll take a stab against at the slim chance he gets burned up from a fast pace and outside trip.

Going to try Najjaar @ 15-1. Pedigree suggests the further the better and while he never threatened in his last, he did make up 16 lengths in the last half mile and was galloping out well. With this being his last shot for the derby, I'm sure Calvin is being told to move sooner, so we shall see. Upset possibility.

Also taking a flyer in the Bluegrass as Hansen is likely going to be unplayable and is again clearly the one to beat. I'm going to try Holy Candy (30-1). This horse was very highly regarded but kept running in to monsters in his maiden races (Castaway, Stirred Up). It looks like the light bulb finally turned on his last when he ran down a leader who had no business being caught (setting SLOW fractions). This one went by like he was standing still. Now, these are lofty expectations thinking a maiden will upset a field of proven winners, but if the price is right, its worth a shot.