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dirtyshirt
Senior Member
Beyer: Bodemeister looks best - again - in Preakness
By Andrew Beyer
Bodemeister (right) and Creative Cause (left) ran strong races in the Kentucky Derby despite adversity. Ill Have Another (second from left) had a perfect trip.
When Ill Have Another defeated Bodemeister in the Kentucky Derby, many handicappers (including me) thought it was obvious that the loser had run the better race after setting an extraordinarily fast pace.
But this opinion was not unanimous. Sagacious observers such as Daily Racing Form columnist Jay Hovdey and TVG Network analyst Todd Schrupp argued that the winner was the best horse. Hovdey maintained that racing fans always tend to glamorize failed efforts in the Derby, a phenomenon he described as the cult of the noble loser. Moreover, the blogosphere was filled with nasty comments suggesting that members of the pro-Bodemeister camp were making alibis after losing a bet.
[PREAKNESS STAKES: Get PPs, contender profiles, video updates]
The popular reasoning was: Ill Have Another won, so hes the best horse; hes the best horse, so hell win the Preakness.
Many of these people appear not to understand the rudiments of handicapping. When serious bettors evaluate what has happened in a race, they dont necessarily focus on who won and who lost. They understand that outcomes are determined not only by horses talent, but also by race dynamics pace, traffic trouble, ground loss, all the things that constitute a horses trip. They try to consider all of these factors in order to judge after the fact who ran best, because that conclusion may be the key to betting a future race such as Saturdays Preakness.
In the bestselling book on probabilities, Fooled by Randomness, author Naseem Taleb says that to evaluate a particular outcome we must consider its alternative history other outcomes that might reasonably have happened. He was writing principally about investments, but the concept is relevant to horse racing.
If, in a theoretical world, the 2012 Kentucky Derby were contested 100 times, it would be run in a variety of ways and produce a variety of results. One of the less likely scenarios might be this one: Ill Have Another gets a perfect trip after breaking from post 19, saving ground on the first turn and avoiding any traffic trouble, while many of his main rivals are encountering adversity. If they run the Derby 100 times, Ill Have Another may get such an ideal trip only a few times; its wrong to leap to a definite conclusion about his superiority based on the scenario that unfolded May 5.
Handicapping the Preakness demands a clear-eyed analysis of the Derby. All of the realistic contenders at Pimlico are colts who ran at Churchill Downs, and NBCs aerial-camera shot made it possible to see them all from start to finish. Heres what I saw.
Daddy Nose Best (10th in the Derby) and Optimizer (11th) both steadied, according to the official charts, but any mishaps were either invisible or inconsequential. They had no excuses.
Went the Day Well (fourth) had some traffic trouble early in the race, raced wide on the final turn, and outkicked everybody else to finish fourth. On paper, it looks like an impressive performance. But when longshot Prospective bobbled in front of him in the early stages of the race, Went the Day Well was already in 17th place, and the incident cost him virtually nothing. His flying finish was an illusion often common in the Derby. After a hot pace, the field is slowing down in the stretch, and somebody almost always passes the dead wood with what looks like a powerful late run.
Creative Cause (fifth) raced wide all the way. Joel Rosario took him into the five path on the backstretch and kept him there while launching a mid-race move on the turn. In contrast to Went the Day Well, who did his running when the leaders were exhausted, Creative Cause was trying to accelerate while the leader Bodemeister was still strong. His three-length loss wasnt a bad effort.
Bodemeister (second) didnt race wide or encounter traffic trouble, but his was nevertheless the toughest trip of all. Because of the presence of the ultra-fast Hansen and Trinniberg in the field, he had to run a half-mile in 45.4 seconds to seize and maintain the lead. He didnt have the luxury of slowing down to a moderate pace as he did when he captured the Arkansas Derby by 9 1/2 lengths. If he had been able to set a slower pace, or if Ill Have Another had encountered some adversity, Bodemeister would have won. Run the Kentucky Derby 100 times in an alternate universe, and hell capture a plurality of them.
At Pimlico there is only one reason to question Bodemeister, and it has nothing to do with his talent. The colt has crammed his whole five-race career into the span of four months, and the exertions may have taken a toll on him. After the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert said, I was worried that he might be wiped out and stay in the back of his stall for three days and sulk. But Baffert believes his colt has bounced back and is ready to run at the level he did in the Derby.
Assuming that Baffert is right, Bodemeister ought to benefit from a perfect setup in the Preakness. The defection of Hansen removed the most formidable other speed horse from the field. Ill Have Another will probably try to put some pressure on Bodemeister, but Bafferts colt figures to get a comfortable early lead a huge advantage in any race.
Who can beat Bodemeister? While Ill Have Another and Went the Day Well probably ran their optimal races in the Derby, Creative Cause did not. Most clockers didnt like the way he had trained at Churchill Downs; he had a difficult trip in the race itself, yet he lost by only three lengths. He is a consistent, seasoned runner who defeated Bodemeister earlier in the winter, and under neutral conditions he might do it again, but not when his rival gets an uncontested lead.
Bodemeister wins the Preakness in a runaway, with Creative Cause second and Ill Have Another third.
© 2012, The Washington Post
The highlight:
If he had been able to set a slower pace, or if Ill Have Another had encountered some adversity, Bodemeister would have won.
Mr Beyer,
If they had only put the golf hole where my ball landed, I would have got a hole-in-one.
Yours Truly,
Dirty
By Andrew Beyer
Bodemeister (right) and Creative Cause (left) ran strong races in the Kentucky Derby despite adversity. Ill Have Another (second from left) had a perfect trip.
When Ill Have Another defeated Bodemeister in the Kentucky Derby, many handicappers (including me) thought it was obvious that the loser had run the better race after setting an extraordinarily fast pace.
But this opinion was not unanimous. Sagacious observers such as Daily Racing Form columnist Jay Hovdey and TVG Network analyst Todd Schrupp argued that the winner was the best horse. Hovdey maintained that racing fans always tend to glamorize failed efforts in the Derby, a phenomenon he described as the cult of the noble loser. Moreover, the blogosphere was filled with nasty comments suggesting that members of the pro-Bodemeister camp were making alibis after losing a bet.
[PREAKNESS STAKES: Get PPs, contender profiles, video updates]
The popular reasoning was: Ill Have Another won, so hes the best horse; hes the best horse, so hell win the Preakness.
Many of these people appear not to understand the rudiments of handicapping. When serious bettors evaluate what has happened in a race, they dont necessarily focus on who won and who lost. They understand that outcomes are determined not only by horses talent, but also by race dynamics pace, traffic trouble, ground loss, all the things that constitute a horses trip. They try to consider all of these factors in order to judge after the fact who ran best, because that conclusion may be the key to betting a future race such as Saturdays Preakness.
In the bestselling book on probabilities, Fooled by Randomness, author Naseem Taleb says that to evaluate a particular outcome we must consider its alternative history other outcomes that might reasonably have happened. He was writing principally about investments, but the concept is relevant to horse racing.
If, in a theoretical world, the 2012 Kentucky Derby were contested 100 times, it would be run in a variety of ways and produce a variety of results. One of the less likely scenarios might be this one: Ill Have Another gets a perfect trip after breaking from post 19, saving ground on the first turn and avoiding any traffic trouble, while many of his main rivals are encountering adversity. If they run the Derby 100 times, Ill Have Another may get such an ideal trip only a few times; its wrong to leap to a definite conclusion about his superiority based on the scenario that unfolded May 5.
Handicapping the Preakness demands a clear-eyed analysis of the Derby. All of the realistic contenders at Pimlico are colts who ran at Churchill Downs, and NBCs aerial-camera shot made it possible to see them all from start to finish. Heres what I saw.
Daddy Nose Best (10th in the Derby) and Optimizer (11th) both steadied, according to the official charts, but any mishaps were either invisible or inconsequential. They had no excuses.
Went the Day Well (fourth) had some traffic trouble early in the race, raced wide on the final turn, and outkicked everybody else to finish fourth. On paper, it looks like an impressive performance. But when longshot Prospective bobbled in front of him in the early stages of the race, Went the Day Well was already in 17th place, and the incident cost him virtually nothing. His flying finish was an illusion often common in the Derby. After a hot pace, the field is slowing down in the stretch, and somebody almost always passes the dead wood with what looks like a powerful late run.
Creative Cause (fifth) raced wide all the way. Joel Rosario took him into the five path on the backstretch and kept him there while launching a mid-race move on the turn. In contrast to Went the Day Well, who did his running when the leaders were exhausted, Creative Cause was trying to accelerate while the leader Bodemeister was still strong. His three-length loss wasnt a bad effort.
Bodemeister (second) didnt race wide or encounter traffic trouble, but his was nevertheless the toughest trip of all. Because of the presence of the ultra-fast Hansen and Trinniberg in the field, he had to run a half-mile in 45.4 seconds to seize and maintain the lead. He didnt have the luxury of slowing down to a moderate pace as he did when he captured the Arkansas Derby by 9 1/2 lengths. If he had been able to set a slower pace, or if Ill Have Another had encountered some adversity, Bodemeister would have won. Run the Kentucky Derby 100 times in an alternate universe, and hell capture a plurality of them.
At Pimlico there is only one reason to question Bodemeister, and it has nothing to do with his talent. The colt has crammed his whole five-race career into the span of four months, and the exertions may have taken a toll on him. After the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert said, I was worried that he might be wiped out and stay in the back of his stall for three days and sulk. But Baffert believes his colt has bounced back and is ready to run at the level he did in the Derby.
Assuming that Baffert is right, Bodemeister ought to benefit from a perfect setup in the Preakness. The defection of Hansen removed the most formidable other speed horse from the field. Ill Have Another will probably try to put some pressure on Bodemeister, but Bafferts colt figures to get a comfortable early lead a huge advantage in any race.
Who can beat Bodemeister? While Ill Have Another and Went the Day Well probably ran their optimal races in the Derby, Creative Cause did not. Most clockers didnt like the way he had trained at Churchill Downs; he had a difficult trip in the race itself, yet he lost by only three lengths. He is a consistent, seasoned runner who defeated Bodemeister earlier in the winter, and under neutral conditions he might do it again, but not when his rival gets an uncontested lead.
Bodemeister wins the Preakness in a runaway, with Creative Cause second and Ill Have Another third.
© 2012, The Washington Post
The highlight:
If he had been able to set a slower pace, or if Ill Have Another had encountered some adversity, Bodemeister would have won.
Mr Beyer,
If they had only put the golf hole where my ball landed, I would have got a hole-in-one.
Yours Truly,
Dirty
Comments
HAHAHAHAHA :drinking:
Guy is such a stroke. I don't understand why people refuse to understand that horses have habits of "making their own luck" based on tactical speed. One dimensional runners are the way they are and MUST be handicapped as such.
There was a guy earlier in the week who was so angry at getting taken to the bank that he was trying to argue that IHA has no shot to even hit the board. Grow up people, if you are going to bet, at least handle your loss with at least an iota of grace.
Yeah, but you're the type who "understand the rudiments of handicapping."
The rest of us are sick of the Andy's "I'm always right attitude." He makes enough stupid generalizations, skips over horses, and is condescending enough for me. I mean fuck, the headline is like "I was right all along even though I wasn't"
You like anything early today DC? I only looked at the BHP card.
This is what I'm factoring in. That entire week Churchill was like a merry-go-round.
That carsouel never stopped all day long. A huge bias on the latter part of Fridays card and all day on Saturday. They sealed the track prior to the Oaks and no one made up ground from that point on all weekend long.
And now?
Spot on. Especially for somebody who "appears not to understand the rudiments of handicapping."
And in its full context for one last laugh:
The popular reasoning was: Ill Have Another won, so hes the best horse; hes the best horse, so hell win the Preakness.
Many of these people appear not to understand the rudiments of handicapping. When serious bettors evaluate what has happened in a race, they dont necessarily focus on who won and who lost. They understand that outcomes are determined not only by horses talent, but also by race dynamics pace, traffic trouble, ground loss, all the things that constitute a horses trip.
Ice cold. Watch him hitting the wire - no emotion.
Beyer: A defining moment for I'll Have Another in the Preakness
By Andrew Beyer
After patiently waiting to launch their winning bid in the Preakness, I'll Have Another and Mario Gutierrez outfinish Bodemeister and Mike Smith.
BALTIMORE - Ill Have Another came into the Preakness facing one of the toughest possible tactical situations in racing. His most formidable rival, Bodemeister, was the solitary front-runner in the field and would be able to control the pace as his jockey dictated. Thats usually a formula for victory whether the scenario develops in a maiden race or the second leg of the Triple Crown.
So when Ill Have Another made his last surge in the Pimlico stretch and caught the leader, this wasnt simply a case of a stretch-runner overhauling a tired leader. Bodemeister is a superior speed horse, and he ran as well today as he has ever done in his short career. Ill Have Anothers performance - though the winning margin was only a neck - was much more impressive and authoritative than his triumph in the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier.
He and Bodemeister both ran fast and trounced the rest of the field by almost nine lengths, erasing the impression that is a mediocre group of 3-year-olds.
In the Derby, Bodemeister had to set a torrid pace in order to outrun other fast rivals, and Ill Have Anothers little-known jockey, Mario Gutierrez, secured a perfect trip to rally and catch the tired favorite in the stretch. But when the other speed horses defected from the Preakness field, Gutierrez was put in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-dont position. Should he try to put pressure on Bodemeister, and risk enervating his own mount, or let Bodemeister have an unchallenged lead. Before the race, Gutierrez told trainer Doug ONeill: If he goes slow I want to beat on top of him. ONeill assented.
But when the gate opened at Pimlico, Gutierrez did something that demonstrated a coolness and sophistication that few people would have expected from a jockey who had spent most of his life in the minor leagues. He didnt try to impose his will on his horse. He neither restrained Ill Have Another nor pushed him to chase Bodemeister. He got him out of the gate with alacrity, but then was willing to let Ill Have Another run his own race.
As Bodemeister took command early, another rival, Creative Cause, tried to chase the leader and apply mild pressure while Ill Have Another settled into fourth place and got hung three-wide on the first turn. As owner Paul Reddam watched, he was fretting: When he got caught wide at the first turn, I was saying I dont know if I like this.
Jockey Mike Smith, meanwhile, loved the way the Preakness was developing. He was nursing Bodemeister on the lead, maintaining a one-length advantage over Creative Cause, and his mount was behaving perfectly. Bodemeister wasnt headstrong, as young horses with his running style can be; he cruised on the lead and hit the half-mile mark in 47.68 seconds - a soft pace that should have given him an insuperable advantage. It was the slowest half-mile in the Preakness since 1982, when Alomas Ruler went in :48 and proceeded to lead all the way. The racing strip at Pimlico Saturday was relatively slow, but the track was no slower than last year, when Shackleford vied for the lead in 46.87 and went on to win.
Bodemeister shook off the ineffectual challenge of Creative Cause on the turn and opened a three-length advantage in the stretch. Thats when Gutierrez asked his mount to run in earnest. At first, he barely cut into the leaders margin; Bodemeister was still strong after those slow fractions. An eighth of a mile from the finish line, Ill Have Another still looked beaten. That was Smiths impression. I thought I put him away, the Hall-of-Famer said. Bodemeisters trainer, Bob Baffert, was feeling confident, too: I really thought he was going to do.
But in that final furlong, to the roar of 121,309 people, Ill Have Another surged powerfully and Bodemeister could not repel the challenge, just as he couldnt repel it at Churchill Downs. Though the finish at Pimlico may have looked much like the Derby to casual observers, this race helped redefine both horses - and this equine generation.
Ill Have Anothers final time of 1:55.94 was a super effort considering the slowness of the racing strip. He and Bodemeister earned preliminary Beyer Speed Figures of 109, which would be the fastest Preakness performance since Curlin - the eventual horse of the year - won in 2007. The winner is not in the league of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed - names that will be evoked frequently in the next three weeks as Ill Have Another aims to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. But he proved at Pimlico that he is worthy of the task.
Here's what stands out me - He mention the impressive winner (and feature of the article) I'll Have Another 12 times in the article. However, in a show of true dipshittery (and his ego), he mentions Bodemeister no less than 16 fucking times. Get over it retard.