Exotic bet -- takeout vs. handle
texasgary
Junior Member
I have a question concerning the significance of track takeout in the Pick 4. My calculations suggest that track takeout is not remotely as important as the handle.
Here is data taken from the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) 2012 track ratings:
Beulah (BEU), P4 takeout =15%, exotic pool per race = $65,000*.
Pimlico (PIM), P4 takeout = 25.75%, exotic pool per race = $269,000.
*Note: This is probably the pool after takeout, but that doesnt affect my point.
So how large are the respective pools from which my P4 win will be paid?
Beulah, 85% x $65,000 = $55,000
Pimlico, 74.25% x $269,000 = $200,000
Would you rather have a piece of $55,000, or a piece of $200,000? Id opt for the latter, in spite of the nearly 26% takeout.
Am I missing something here, or is track takeout -- at least for the P4 and other exotic wagers -- almost irrelevant when compared to the exotic handle?
Thanks for any feedback.
-- Gary
Here is data taken from the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) 2012 track ratings:
Beulah (BEU), P4 takeout =15%, exotic pool per race = $65,000*.
Pimlico (PIM), P4 takeout = 25.75%, exotic pool per race = $269,000.
*Note: This is probably the pool after takeout, but that doesnt affect my point.
So how large are the respective pools from which my P4 win will be paid?
Beulah, 85% x $65,000 = $55,000
Pimlico, 74.25% x $269,000 = $200,000
Would you rather have a piece of $55,000, or a piece of $200,000? Id opt for the latter, in spite of the nearly 26% takeout.
Am I missing something here, or is track takeout -- at least for the P4 and other exotic wagers -- almost irrelevant when compared to the exotic handle?
Thanks for any feedback.
-- Gary
Comments
The bigger the pool the more tickets bet in the Pick 4.
For example, Pimlico may have 4 times the amount of players that the pool @ Beulah will pay from. So while you are essentially right to want a piece of the $200k pool, there is also a much higher likelihood that nearly 4x the amount of tickets will hit, essentially eliminating the differential and making Beulah the probable smarter wager.
Pools are important, especially when they lead to carryovers, but as an average gambler, should not outweigh takeout as much as you are expecting. If I am wrong, and you are a high roller going extremely deep trying to take down a lucrative Pick 4 pool where only a handful of tickets might hit, then I stand corrected. If you are putting together smaller size tickets with a majority of favorites and single digit horses, I'd favor the smaller takeout for a likely higher return on income.
Hope that helps and sorry if I didn't articulate very well, it was a long weekend at Belmont. Good luck to you.
The reduced take-out .50 pick 5 is truly an ideal wager. If I have two strong opinions, I will play tickets many many times (F-you Twinspires). I'm making real money betting these, and squandering it on everything else.
In a smaller pool, there will be a greater variance in the takeout relative to the win prices of the four winners that comprise the P4.
For instance, let's say in your example at Beuleh Park, the winners of the Pic 4 are 4-5, 16-1, 7-2, and 3-1.
Chances are that the pic four pays around 1000-1. However, there's a greater chance that it would pay only 400 or 4,000 than in the Pimlico pool. That's because a lower pool means a greater variance. The only thing the smaller pool doesn't offer you is a chance to hit a $100,000 pic 4 because there's not that much dough available. So if you are big-game hunting, you should probably focus on the bigger tracks.
But yeah, overall you want lower takeout.
Churchill Downs After Dark on Saturday night has a great pick-5 going races 4-8, including all the Graded Stakes races. I'm waiting on the odds to be posted but I can tell you now that there are a couple in the sequence who have a real chance at a big prce. Will post early Saturday--stay tuned!
Also patiently waiting the lines for this card. While it is not going to be one of the bigger prices, I'm extremely high on Stealcase's chances on Saturday. Just hoping to win back a little from my horrible plays @ Belmont.
Me too! His running behind Paynter looks pretty good now. I'll probably go two deep in that one using Stealcase with Right To Vote. I just don't know if Royal Delta is a single since she is carrying serious weight. I can see myself using Dirty's system and using several cards. I think you have to go deep in some of these stakes races. BTW, if you pull up the entries on Equibase , they do not showthe pick-5 beginning in race 4, but it is a wager nevertheless.