My Breeder's Cup Picks (with reasoning)
FlyinLate
Senior Member
Friday 10/26/07
Didn't really get into Friday's card much. I was back and forth on too many races. I will be playing La Traviata as well as Nownownow though.
Saturday 10/27/07
*Breeder's Cup Fillie Juvenile
-Grace Anatomy
+Grace Anatomy has impressed me all year. First outing was good enough for me to come back and bet her. Next race up in class for a 68k msw she ran great. Her last race was a G1 at Keeneland where the only reason she lost was the trip (broke in air, terrible road traffic, etc)
*Breeder's Cup Juvenile
-Tale of Ekati
+Tale of Ekati has been my favorite 2yr old this year. His last race was bar none the best race by any 2yr old this year. Tagg let him rest and trained him well in his layoff since that win.
*Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf
-Precious Kitten
+This is my longshot of the card. Precious Kitten has been in the money 12/13 starts in the turf and any turf races this year that were over a mile she won. She likes the distance, likes the turf. I love the 30-1 ML :clap2:
*Breeder's Cup Sprint
-Idiot Proof
+Idiot Proof has proven itself well this year. Out of 8 dirt starts this year Idiot Proof won 5 in both G1 and G3 races. 4 wins and 1 second on this distance and drew a descent post. Flores is also an underrated jockey.
*Breeder's Cup Mile
-Nobiz Like Shobiz
+Don't understand the 8-1 ML here. I don't see this horse going off at anything better than 4-1 and that's pushing it. Nobiz is undefeated on the turf with 2 of them at this distance. Only really bad race this year was the derby (obviously overmatched and likes turf better). Also an amazing work by this horse earlier in the week.
*Breeder's Cup Distaff
-Lear's Princess
+Look at this filly's last race. Same surface, same distance. Ran an amazing race and beat Belmont winner Rags2riches (granted this is the race she got hurt). Couple 2nds this year to others in race but only due to very wide trips.
*Breeder's Cup Turf
-Dyland Thomas
+This is my chalk pick. I don't have much of an explanation other than I think he really outclasses the rest of these horses.
*Breeder's Cup Classic
-Curlin and/or Hard Spun
+My selection here is going to depend on a few things.
1)How well this track is favoring speed
2)How both look in post parade
3)The odds, if Curlin goes off at 2-1 no way will I play. I want Hard Spun at like 10/1
+I think both horses have a shot here. Hard Spun obviously had the perfect trip when defeating Street Sense, with the sole lead. I really don't think Lawyer Ron will keep up with Hard Spun and I hope it creates traffic for curlin/street sense/any given saturday/etc. Curlin's been my favorite horse all year so I find him hard to play against. We'll see though.
Didn't really get into Friday's card much. I was back and forth on too many races. I will be playing La Traviata as well as Nownownow though.
Saturday 10/27/07
*Breeder's Cup Fillie Juvenile
-Grace Anatomy
+Grace Anatomy has impressed me all year. First outing was good enough for me to come back and bet her. Next race up in class for a 68k msw she ran great. Her last race was a G1 at Keeneland where the only reason she lost was the trip (broke in air, terrible road traffic, etc)
*Breeder's Cup Juvenile
-Tale of Ekati
+Tale of Ekati has been my favorite 2yr old this year. His last race was bar none the best race by any 2yr old this year. Tagg let him rest and trained him well in his layoff since that win.
*Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf
-Precious Kitten
+This is my longshot of the card. Precious Kitten has been in the money 12/13 starts in the turf and any turf races this year that were over a mile she won. She likes the distance, likes the turf. I love the 30-1 ML :clap2:
*Breeder's Cup Sprint
-Idiot Proof
+Idiot Proof has proven itself well this year. Out of 8 dirt starts this year Idiot Proof won 5 in both G1 and G3 races. 4 wins and 1 second on this distance and drew a descent post. Flores is also an underrated jockey.
*Breeder's Cup Mile
-Nobiz Like Shobiz
+Don't understand the 8-1 ML here. I don't see this horse going off at anything better than 4-1 and that's pushing it. Nobiz is undefeated on the turf with 2 of them at this distance. Only really bad race this year was the derby (obviously overmatched and likes turf better). Also an amazing work by this horse earlier in the week.
*Breeder's Cup Distaff
-Lear's Princess
+Look at this filly's last race. Same surface, same distance. Ran an amazing race and beat Belmont winner Rags2riches (granted this is the race she got hurt). Couple 2nds this year to others in race but only due to very wide trips.
*Breeder's Cup Turf
-Dyland Thomas
+This is my chalk pick. I don't have much of an explanation other than I think he really outclasses the rest of these horses.
*Breeder's Cup Classic
-Curlin and/or Hard Spun
+My selection here is going to depend on a few things.
1)How well this track is favoring speed
2)How both look in post parade
3)The odds, if Curlin goes off at 2-1 no way will I play. I want Hard Spun at like 10/1
+I think both horses have a shot here. Hard Spun obviously had the perfect trip when defeating Street Sense, with the sole lead. I really don't think Lawyer Ron will keep up with Hard Spun and I hope it creates traffic for curlin/street sense/any given saturday/etc. Curlin's been my favorite horse all year so I find him hard to play against. We'll see though.
Comments
La Traviata couldn't get the lead like she needed and it hurt, bad. She faded quick and got stormed on. Ended up 5th or 6th.
Nownownow started dead last and worked his way 4 wide. Closed like a bullet just like I hoped and won by a neck or quarter length. Nice $26 winner.
I enjoyed reading
good luck on your picks today
Brian