Arlington Million Full Card Plays
FlyinLate
Senior Member
Race 1
#7 Afford (5-1)
Afford has been knocking heads with some serious horses like Atigun & Brushed By a Star. Since his last ran against these two, Atigun ran a balls to the walls 3rd place in the Belmont. Brushed by a Star, who defeated Afford by a mere 3/4 of a length in their, has since come back to win an ungraded stakes in Iowa and then a Grade 2 on the Haskell undercard. He has perfect tactical speed to place him in position regardless of the pace.
WP #7
2-4-7-8 Boxes
Race 2
#3 Godard (8-1)
A similar angle to the above, Godard has been knocking heads with tougher than this group. When running @ CD, he was running competitively against Finnegan's Wake (running in Secretariat), stakes winning Animal Spirits, and Beamer. When the CD meet ended, he shipped to Arlington where he took a liking to the turf, winning after pinching the break and lacking clear running room in the stretch. He'll need a cleaner trip to run these down, but @ 8-1 he offers excellent value in a race without a clear cut favorite.
WP #3
Race 3
#5 Toast with Honey (6-1)
The lightbulb is on. After getting destroyed in his first three maiden attempts, TwH dropped in to a class he fit. He went right to the front and drew off to win in the easiest of fashions. He loses Torres, but odds are Torres took the 3 horse for loyalty to the much larger barn of Brueggeman. The poly is clearly his favorite surface and the distance is perfect. The other speed is drawn inside so he should get a perfect stalking trip and press go around the far turn.
WP #5
Pick 4 (2,5 with 8,9 with 5,6,9 with 7,9)
Race 4
#9 Telitlikitiscoach (3-1)
After nearly winning at first asking during the difficult task of winning @ a mile on the turf in his first, he comes back against a relatively unproven group. He finished a game second to Brown Almighty, a talented Big Brown colt who won his next race after this maiden race. Divito is hitting at an outrageous 37% this meet with 2nd time starters and this one should only pad that stat.
Win #9
Race 5
#5 La Tia (9-2)
This one has been nothing short of stellar recently. Saying she is a proven winner @ Arlington is an understatement. Her last three victories on this track total to a near 20 length margin. Her last does not appear as strongly on paper as it was visually. First, La Tia is a better miler than she was at 1 1/8. After spurting clear by 4-5 lengths around the 1/16th pole, Constantino Romans let off the gas and coasted this one home. Her margin could have easily remained larger than the 3/4 length it was. Not only that, she gets a 1/16th of a mile off distance since her last. There does appear to be some other pace in here, but I doubt she will get ripped to shreds going too quick too early.
WP #5
5,6,9 Boxes
Race 6
#9 Devils Tower (8-1)
In a wide open race I've gone outside the 9 horse, Devils Tower. After a few sprints this one returns to the mile distance, which is arguably the distance of her best races. After ripping home in her first off the layoff, this one has come up empty in his last two. A better break, enough pace, and a clean trip and this one is as good as any. Worth a play @ nice odds.
WP #9
Exacta Box 7,9
Race 7
#8 Jakkalberry (9-5)
This is my most confident play of the day. Jakkalberry has been knocking heads with some of the top distance horses in the world including St. Nicholas Abbey, Opinion Poll, and Foxhunt. Any of those would enter the gate at 3/5 against this bunch. Not only does this horse possess the class advantage, he also has a jockey experienced in these marathon type runs against nothing better than an average group of American horses. Look for this one to start uncoiling around the far turn and blow by them all.
Win #8
5,7,8,10 Boxes
Race 8
#2 Summer Front (5-2)
Well I've gone back and forth, then forth and back. I've rewatched the recent races by Summer Front and Silver Max, multiple times. The problem is I don't think either of one of these will be running their best races @ 1 1/4. Now, you are likely wondering why I still selected Summer Front, well the answer is I still think he is better than the rest. Summer Front has been nothing short of amazing on the turf (nor has Silver Max, for that matter). The one thing about Silver Max here, is he is finally seeing some real Grade 1 competition. I will keeping a close eye on Daddy Long Lengs, who I feel has a legitimate shot of beating both of these for the fact that he will do his best running at the distance. Daddy Long Legs will likely get first crack at Silver Max, and if he is good enough, and the distance proves too much for Summer Front, then watch out.
Win #2
Backup WP #6
Race 9
#2 Leading Astray (4-1)
This is arguably the most competitive of the day's races. Leading Astray, at 4-1, is the morning line favorite, with 6 of the 10 horse field projected at single digit odds. Leading Astray has been facing some stiff competition in Goldaway and No Retreat. The company here is on par with the groups he has been beating in recent starts and this race should be no different. Winner of 3 of 4, in possession of good tactical speed, starting for a top AP turf trainer.
WP #2
Race 10
#10 Joviality (5-1)
Let me preface this by stating that this is the toughest race to handicap of the day. If Joviality can run the race she ran 2 back, she will be ultra tough here. Joviality possess enough speed to stick close to what shouldn't be an explosive pace by any means. This filly hates the soft turf. We had some rain today, but the forecast is sun for the next 48hrs which should dry the track up to what I'm predicting as "Good" for Million day. She runs her best races on turf that has just enough give and I'm willing to put a line through her last. Gosden would not waste the time and money to ship an ailing filly overseas. While my money will be on Joviality, nobody in this field would surprise me.
WP #10
4,7,8,10 Boxes
Race 11
#8 Wigmore Hall (12-1)
This has been a horse I've been watching since I bet him in the Secretariat 2yrs ago. He was too far back that day against the beast of Paddy O Prado, then returned to Arlington last year for the Million where he ran a solid 4th despite one of the worst rides I've seen where Hayley Turner decided to pull him out right in front of a wall of backing up horses, spotting Cape Blanco nearly 10 lengths before finally seeing daylight and running on well for 4th, galloping out past the winner. His year thus far has been far from impressive, but some excuses are warranted including his last where he was completely knocked out of the race. He is not a consistent winning sort, but has the right style to win this race. If he can finally squeeze out a clean trip on this turf course he loves (his preference also being for good ground), this one can hit home @ great odds.
WPS #9
2,3,7,8 Boxes
Race 12
#6 - No full write up. Crap shoot of a race. Broke maiden nicely, returned in this class to run on OK up the rail where he lacked sufficient room to really menace. Worth a play back @ 6-1.
NOTE: If Turf comes up Soft, I will NOT be playing Joviality.
#7 Afford (5-1)
Afford has been knocking heads with some serious horses like Atigun & Brushed By a Star. Since his last ran against these two, Atigun ran a balls to the walls 3rd place in the Belmont. Brushed by a Star, who defeated Afford by a mere 3/4 of a length in their, has since come back to win an ungraded stakes in Iowa and then a Grade 2 on the Haskell undercard. He has perfect tactical speed to place him in position regardless of the pace.
WP #7
2-4-7-8 Boxes
Race 2
#3 Godard (8-1)
A similar angle to the above, Godard has been knocking heads with tougher than this group. When running @ CD, he was running competitively against Finnegan's Wake (running in Secretariat), stakes winning Animal Spirits, and Beamer. When the CD meet ended, he shipped to Arlington where he took a liking to the turf, winning after pinching the break and lacking clear running room in the stretch. He'll need a cleaner trip to run these down, but @ 8-1 he offers excellent value in a race without a clear cut favorite.
WP #3
Race 3
#5 Toast with Honey (6-1)
The lightbulb is on. After getting destroyed in his first three maiden attempts, TwH dropped in to a class he fit. He went right to the front and drew off to win in the easiest of fashions. He loses Torres, but odds are Torres took the 3 horse for loyalty to the much larger barn of Brueggeman. The poly is clearly his favorite surface and the distance is perfect. The other speed is drawn inside so he should get a perfect stalking trip and press go around the far turn.
WP #5
Pick 4 (2,5 with 8,9 with 5,6,9 with 7,9)
Race 4
#9 Telitlikitiscoach (3-1)
After nearly winning at first asking during the difficult task of winning @ a mile on the turf in his first, he comes back against a relatively unproven group. He finished a game second to Brown Almighty, a talented Big Brown colt who won his next race after this maiden race. Divito is hitting at an outrageous 37% this meet with 2nd time starters and this one should only pad that stat.
Win #9
Race 5
#5 La Tia (9-2)
This one has been nothing short of stellar recently. Saying she is a proven winner @ Arlington is an understatement. Her last three victories on this track total to a near 20 length margin. Her last does not appear as strongly on paper as it was visually. First, La Tia is a better miler than she was at 1 1/8. After spurting clear by 4-5 lengths around the 1/16th pole, Constantino Romans let off the gas and coasted this one home. Her margin could have easily remained larger than the 3/4 length it was. Not only that, she gets a 1/16th of a mile off distance since her last. There does appear to be some other pace in here, but I doubt she will get ripped to shreds going too quick too early.
WP #5
5,6,9 Boxes
Race 6
#9 Devils Tower (8-1)
In a wide open race I've gone outside the 9 horse, Devils Tower. After a few sprints this one returns to the mile distance, which is arguably the distance of her best races. After ripping home in her first off the layoff, this one has come up empty in his last two. A better break, enough pace, and a clean trip and this one is as good as any. Worth a play @ nice odds.
WP #9
Exacta Box 7,9
Race 7
#8 Jakkalberry (9-5)
This is my most confident play of the day. Jakkalberry has been knocking heads with some of the top distance horses in the world including St. Nicholas Abbey, Opinion Poll, and Foxhunt. Any of those would enter the gate at 3/5 against this bunch. Not only does this horse possess the class advantage, he also has a jockey experienced in these marathon type runs against nothing better than an average group of American horses. Look for this one to start uncoiling around the far turn and blow by them all.
Win #8
5,7,8,10 Boxes
Race 8
#2 Summer Front (5-2)
Well I've gone back and forth, then forth and back. I've rewatched the recent races by Summer Front and Silver Max, multiple times. The problem is I don't think either of one of these will be running their best races @ 1 1/4. Now, you are likely wondering why I still selected Summer Front, well the answer is I still think he is better than the rest. Summer Front has been nothing short of amazing on the turf (nor has Silver Max, for that matter). The one thing about Silver Max here, is he is finally seeing some real Grade 1 competition. I will keeping a close eye on Daddy Long Lengs, who I feel has a legitimate shot of beating both of these for the fact that he will do his best running at the distance. Daddy Long Legs will likely get first crack at Silver Max, and if he is good enough, and the distance proves too much for Summer Front, then watch out.
Win #2
Backup WP #6
Race 9
#2 Leading Astray (4-1)
This is arguably the most competitive of the day's races. Leading Astray, at 4-1, is the morning line favorite, with 6 of the 10 horse field projected at single digit odds. Leading Astray has been facing some stiff competition in Goldaway and No Retreat. The company here is on par with the groups he has been beating in recent starts and this race should be no different. Winner of 3 of 4, in possession of good tactical speed, starting for a top AP turf trainer.
WP #2
Race 10
#10 Joviality (5-1)
Let me preface this by stating that this is the toughest race to handicap of the day. If Joviality can run the race she ran 2 back, she will be ultra tough here. Joviality possess enough speed to stick close to what shouldn't be an explosive pace by any means. This filly hates the soft turf. We had some rain today, but the forecast is sun for the next 48hrs which should dry the track up to what I'm predicting as "Good" for Million day. She runs her best races on turf that has just enough give and I'm willing to put a line through her last. Gosden would not waste the time and money to ship an ailing filly overseas. While my money will be on Joviality, nobody in this field would surprise me.
WP #10
4,7,8,10 Boxes
Race 11
#8 Wigmore Hall (12-1)
This has been a horse I've been watching since I bet him in the Secretariat 2yrs ago. He was too far back that day against the beast of Paddy O Prado, then returned to Arlington last year for the Million where he ran a solid 4th despite one of the worst rides I've seen where Hayley Turner decided to pull him out right in front of a wall of backing up horses, spotting Cape Blanco nearly 10 lengths before finally seeing daylight and running on well for 4th, galloping out past the winner. His year thus far has been far from impressive, but some excuses are warranted including his last where he was completely knocked out of the race. He is not a consistent winning sort, but has the right style to win this race. If he can finally squeeze out a clean trip on this turf course he loves (his preference also being for good ground), this one can hit home @ great odds.
WPS #9
2,3,7,8 Boxes
Race 12
#6 - No full write up. Crap shoot of a race. Broke maiden nicely, returned in this class to run on OK up the rail where he lacked sufficient room to really menace. Worth a play back @ 6-1.
NOTE: If Turf comes up Soft, I will NOT be playing Joviality.
Comments
4th at Arlington, 2yo going one mile on turf, mdn $40k
FB likes the 9, I agree somewhat, but am also using the #3, Mughaadir from Danny Peitz barn at 10-1. Also like the #11 at 8-1. These babies all have a race and both had excuses. I'm throwing out the Cat man firster with Ramon, at 5/2 this is a play against. Plus, as Husker used to say, "When Ramon leaves NY, he ain't the same Ramon"
The Proctor entry looks ok, but the one with experience is stuck inside, and the firster on the outside. Not a favorable draw.