Make odds for this potential race.

dirtyshirt

Verrazano Todd Pletcher 5-1
Orb Shug McGaughey III 9-2
Goldencents Doug O'Neill 10-1
Java's War Ken McPeek 8-1
Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 12-1 (Borel factor)
Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 15-1
Lines of Battle Aiden O'Brien 20-1
Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 15-1
Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 30-1
Govenor Charlie Bob Baffert 20-1
Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 15-1
Black Onyx Kelly Breen 30-1
Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 12-1
Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 8-1
Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 30-1
Mylute Tom Amoss 20-1
Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 20-1
Uncaptured Mark Casse 30-1
Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert 30-1
Falling Sky John Terranova II 50-1

I'm not an odds maker. Does that look close?

DiscreetCat

I doubt very much that Battaglia will make Orb the ml favorite. He might end up there by post-time though, we'll see. Probably gonna be close.

dirtyshirt

DiscreetCat wrote: »

I doubt very much that Battaglia will make Orb the ml favorite. He might end up there by post-time though, we'll see. Probably gonna be close.

Yeah, I kinda impressed myself.

You have any lean right now DC? Java or Verrazano?

FlyinLate

I'd have to think Palace Malice will be higher than 12-1. I feel as if around here he is a bigger name than in the general horse racing community thanks to our resident owner, JG.

I'd be hard pressed to see Bataglia put a horse he listed at 8-1 in the Bluegrass to 12-1 in a 20 horse derby field. I personally see PM around 20-1. I mean remember, he still hasn't been in the winners circle in 2013.

As far as the rest, they seem quite accurate. It is an extremely difficult line to come up with and quite frankly even if the ML comes out similar to yours, it again wouldn't surprise me to see a drastic difference on race day. We all know Orb and Verrazano will be the favorites, just not sure how the lines are drawn up.

Mikenyce

Dirty kept looking at these odds you posted. Nice job they look somewhat dead on. Would lean a little higher with PM and a bit lower with overanalyze. Was high on Normandy Invasion but at those odds or even near it forget it plus seems to be the wiseguy horse. Played him in pool 2 at I believe 17-1 and at the time thought that was to low. Like Oxbow if he gets a decent pp

SirBear

It's always tough making odds 2.5 weeks before the race. A lot can change based on workout reports, post position, and other scuttlebutt but the line looks pretty good.

I think VZ will be the slight favorite. 9-2. Java's War more like 11-1. Revolutionary single digits 8 or 9-1 b/c of the Borel factor. Overanalyze will be at least 20-1 off the 88 beyer. Vyjack will be longer than 15-1. Will Take Charge will be more like 12 or 15-1. Governor Charlie will be lower than 20-1, maybe 12 or 14-1. That's all I got.

dirtyshirt

FlyinLate wrote: »

I'd have to think Palace Malice will be higher than 12-1. I feel as if around here he is a bigger name than in the general horse racing community thanks to our resident owner, JG.

I'd be hard pressed to see Bataglia put a horse he listed at 8-1 in the Bluegrass to 12-1 in a 20 horse derby field. I personally see PM around 20-1. I mean remember, he still hasn't been in the winners circle in 2013.

As far as the rest, they seem quite accurate. It is an extremely difficult line to come up with and quite frankly even if the ML comes out similar to yours, it again wouldn't surprise me to see a drastic difference on race day. We all know Orb and Verrazano will be the favorites, just not sure how the lines are drawn up.

Agreed. However, IMO he is better than both other Pletcher's (excluding Verrazano, who you just can't knock). My opinion doesn't matter in the odds. But, would he be 20-1 on the ML? Fuck it, let him get there sound.

dirtyshirt

Update:

Mylute: 15-1 (Rosie Factor, as Nate points out)

rayphil

Mike b. already said he's leaning toward Verrazano. I'm saying 4-1. You nailed orb..java, golden cents, and revolutionary will be from 6-1 to 10-1 and then you have police at12-1....good job on the list..

dirtyshirt

Tiz a Cripple is now listed @ Number 20. Who's out? Or did I only have 19?

dirtyshirt

Charming Kitten is listed in, too?

dirtyshirt

Updated Top 20, now Bobby has 3?


1 Orb Shug McGaughey III 150 $840,000
2 Verrazano Todd Pletcher 150 $810,000
3 Goldencents Doug O'Neill 129 $1,208,000
4 Java's War Ken McPeek 122 $651,772
5 Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 110 $908,831
6 Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 110 $720,000
7 Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,261,089
8 Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 70 $505,000
9 Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 60 $512,971
10 Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 50 $593,600
11 Govenor Charlie Bob Baffert 50 $400,000
12 Black Onyx Kelly Breen 50 $317,130
13 Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 50 $200,000
14 Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 44 $258,000
15 Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 44 $240,596
16 Mylute Tom Amoss 42 $363,365
17 Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 36 $346,000
18 Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert 30 $308,000
19 Falling Sky John Terranova II 30 $207,500
20 Den's Legacy Bob Baffert 20 $329,000

FlyinLate

I've broken down each horse to a strong contender (SC), contender (C), exotic contender (e), little chance (LC), and no chance (NC)

1 Orb Shug McGaughey III 150 $840,000 (SC)
2 Verrazano Todd Pletcher 150 $810,000 (SC)
3 Goldencents Doug O'Neill 129 $1,208,000 (C)
4 Java's War Ken McPeek 122 $651,772 (SC)
5 Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 110 $908,831 (C)
6 Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 110 $720,000 (Between C/E)
7 Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,261,089 (LC)
8 Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 70 $505,000 (LC - Distance limitations showed)
9 Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 60 $512,971 (LC)
10 Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 50 $593,600 (LC)
11 Govenor Charlie Bob Baffert 50 $400,000 (E)
12 Black Onyx Kelly Breen 50 $317,130 (C)
13 Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 50 $200,000 (C)
14 Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 44 $258,000 (SC)
15 Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 44 $240,596 (NC)
16 Mylute Tom Amoss 42 $363,365 (LC)
17 Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 36 $346,000 (LC)
18 Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert 30 $308,000 (NC)
19 Falling Sky John Terranova II 30 $207,500 (NC)
20 Den's Legacy Bob Baffert 20 $329,000 (NC)

dirtyshirt

FlyinLate wrote: »

I've broken down each horse to a strong contender (SC), contender (C), exotic contender (e), little chance (LC), and no chance (NC)

1 Orb Shug McGaughey III 150 $840,000 (SC)
2 Verrazano Todd Pletcher 150 $810,000 (SC)
3 Goldencents Doug O'Neill 129 $1,208,000 (C)
4 Java's War Ken McPeek 122 $651,772 (SC)
5 Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 110 $908,831 (C)
6 Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 110 $720,000 (Between C/E)
7 Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,261,089 (LC)
8 Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 70 $505,000 (LC - Distance limitations showed)
9 Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 60 $512,971 (LC)
10 Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 50 $593,600 (LC)
11 Govenor Charlie Bob Baffert 50 $400,000 (E)
12 Black Onyx Kelly Breen 50 $317,130 (C)
13 Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 50 $200,000 (C)
14 Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 44 $258,000 (SC)
15 Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 44 $240,596 (NC)
16 Mylute Tom Amoss 42 $363,365 (LC)
17 Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 36 $346,000 (LC)
18 Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert 30 $308,000 (NC)
19 Falling Sky John Terranova II 30 $207,500 (NC)
20 Den's Legacy Bob Baffert 20 $329,000 (NC)

This year it feels a little like the C is Cripled SC is Slighty Crippled.

John Greenhaw

Alot has been said and written about the new points system. Personally, I like it and I also believe that it has changed the complexion of how the race will be run. In years gone by, with early graded earnings types getting in with earnings from 2yo 6f to 7f races, you could expect to see early speed whose only chance was to get out front and go. Now, you see many who are just now getting the necessary points via longer races with legit fractions. IMO, I think we will see a more honest pace scenario and it could make for a race which would favor E/P types and work against late closers. We'll see?

dirtyshirt

John Greenhaw wrote: »

Alot has been said and written about the new points system. Personally, I like it and I also believe that it has changed the complexion of how the race will be run. In years gone by, with early graded earnings types getting in with earnings from 2yo 6f to 7f races, you could expect to see early speed whose only chance was to get out front and go. Now, you see many who are just now getting the necessary points via longer races with legit fractions. IMO, I think we will see a more honest pace scenario and it could make for a race which would favor E/P types and work against late closers. We'll see?

Stealing my posts? How's KEE treating you?

John Greenhaw

Not Bad!

I was going to take some time off after my marathon week at Oaklawn, but I jumped back in yesterday and glad I did.

FB is hot as a cheap pistol, and ended the day yesterday at your track with a big ex with Ono Dos Adios and the one FB liked in the one hole coming down the hill. Two horse race to the end and the $2 ex paid $12, which doesn't sound like much, but when you lay down $100 it ain't bad. It got even better when Warren's Flasher got home @ 9-1.