My Kentucky Derby pick
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I like Verrazano. I've been of the opinion all along that he's the best 3yo in the country, and i've seen nothing to make me change my mind. First off, a little background. Here's something i wrote on Dave Tuley's site in late January:
This one (Verrazano) has a lot of potential. A half-brother to El Padrino, note that in his debut @ Gulfstream on New Year's Day, his 6-furlong time (the race was actually 6.5 furlongs, so he had another sixteenth left) was far superior to that being set in the Spectacular Bid Stakes just a half-hour later. And even more impressive, it was just a tick slower than the time being set by the sensational Kauai Katie (still unbeaten around one turn, btw) later on that same card. Kauai Katie was herself winning by 8 lengths that day, a similar margin to Verrazano, who was seen winning by 7+ lengths over Acclaim, who himself returned to win this past weekend. Going a bit further, Verrazano came back to work heads-up with Shanghai Bobby as that one prepared for the Holy Bull Stakes (where he ran second in fast time). So yeah, definitely some things to like.
Shortly after i wrote that, Verrazano went out and destroyed a one-mile, one-turn allowance race at Gulfstream by 17 lengths (or whatever it was), pretty much stamping himself as the early Derby favorite. Subsequent to that race, he began working heads-up with the older graded stakes horse Discreet Dancer, who promptly flattered Verrazano by going out and winning the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Verrazano then went out and won the Tampa Bay Derby (his first attempt at two turns) in his consistently impressive fashion over Java's War, who just last weekend came back to flatter Verrazano by winning the Blue Grass.
Following the TB Derby, Verrazano resumed training with Discreet Dancer, who then went out and ran close (beaten less than two lengths) in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, while Verrazano of course went out and won the Wood Memorial. So far, so good.
Now, here's where opinions on Verrazano begin to diverge, with many people jumping off his bandwagon, which of course is fine by me. Many pundits are procliaming that Verrazano regressed in the Wood Memorial (citing Beyer figures or whatever), the fact that he won by a diminishing margin (in stark contrast to his huge winning margins beforehand), suggesting he has distance limitations, he's been overrated all along, whatever. I think these people are overlooking some key points, such as:
(1) The previously unbeaten colt Vyjack (who was racing on his home track, mind you) was sitting right on Verrazano's flank turning for home in the Wood, and Verrazano simply outkicked him to the wire (which he definitely should have, given the soft early fractions, but hey, he did what he was supposed to do, no problem). He was also never seriously threatened by the close-finishing Normandy Invasion, whom strangely enough, many of these same people like in the Derby based on his performance in the Wood (go figure). While not as close to Verrazano as close as Vyjack was, Normandy Invasion still had very little excuse not to run down Verrazano if he was good enough (especially if Verrazano reportedly ran so poorly), particularly based on Point #2, which is:
(2) Verrazano was coming off a minor hoof injury sustained in the TB Derby, and also, he was not in need of any additional points in order to make the Derby field, while Normandy Invasion most certainly DID need points, so it serves to reason that Verrazano was definitely not cranked up for the Wood Memorial, where as Normandy Invasion definitely was. Based on that knowlege, it's reasonable to expect that Verrazano is more likely to improve in the Derby tha Normandy Invasion will be, and in fact, is one of the more likely horses to show improvement in the entire Derby field.
Not that Normandy Invasion is the only horse he'll have to beat, far from it. But consider these other points:
(3) Verrazano has excellent tactical speed (and broke very sharply in the Wood Memorial, btw), which always a major positive in that 20-horse cavalry charge known as the Derby. As a result of that, he's more likely to work out a good trip for himself (and avoid traffic) than several other contenders who will be farther back early, horses such as Orb, Revolutionary, Normady Invasion, Java's War, etc.
(4) Verrazano has already posted wins on 3 different racing surfaces, a factor that shouldn't be overlooked heading into Churchill Downs (where most of the fiels has never raced before). That's no guarantee he'll take to the surface, but it does seem to make him one of the more likley horses to handle it.
(5) As mentioned above, he's routinely been working out with multiple graded stakes winners, from the time that he was a simple maiden winner. That speak to his quality.
(6) His trainer has won the Derby before (always a plus), with a horse coming out of the Tampa Bay Derby, same as Verrazano is. Tampa Bay has a deeper racing surface that always serves as nice place to train some stamina into your Derby prospect, as the connections of the impressive Derby winner Street Sense might also attest.
Just a lot of things to like about the horse, not the least of which is that he's no longer the flavor-of-the-month, with many people looking for alternatives after his purportedly sub-par final prep race. I would guess that he'll probably go off somewhere around the 9/2 or 5/1 mark, which would make for a slight overlay i think. I make him around 4/1 to win the race, and i don't think he'll be any lower than that on the toteboard. In fact, i think there's a decent chance he won't even go favored (i think it'll be close between he and Orb, with some of the others like Revolutionary, Goldencents, and Normandy Invasion probably not all that far behind). While Verrazano is certainly no lock (no Derby entrant ever is), i do think he's the most likely winner, and i don't think he's getting the respect he desesrves. I like him as much as any horse going into the Derby since Big Brown, who of course was a much lower price than Verrazano will be. My two cents.
This one (Verrazano) has a lot of potential. A half-brother to El Padrino, note that in his debut @ Gulfstream on New Year's Day, his 6-furlong time (the race was actually 6.5 furlongs, so he had another sixteenth left) was far superior to that being set in the Spectacular Bid Stakes just a half-hour later. And even more impressive, it was just a tick slower than the time being set by the sensational Kauai Katie (still unbeaten around one turn, btw) later on that same card. Kauai Katie was herself winning by 8 lengths that day, a similar margin to Verrazano, who was seen winning by 7+ lengths over Acclaim, who himself returned to win this past weekend. Going a bit further, Verrazano came back to work heads-up with Shanghai Bobby as that one prepared for the Holy Bull Stakes (where he ran second in fast time). So yeah, definitely some things to like.
Shortly after i wrote that, Verrazano went out and destroyed a one-mile, one-turn allowance race at Gulfstream by 17 lengths (or whatever it was), pretty much stamping himself as the early Derby favorite. Subsequent to that race, he began working heads-up with the older graded stakes horse Discreet Dancer, who promptly flattered Verrazano by going out and winning the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Verrazano then went out and won the Tampa Bay Derby (his first attempt at two turns) in his consistently impressive fashion over Java's War, who just last weekend came back to flatter Verrazano by winning the Blue Grass.
Following the TB Derby, Verrazano resumed training with Discreet Dancer, who then went out and ran close (beaten less than two lengths) in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, while Verrazano of course went out and won the Wood Memorial. So far, so good.
Now, here's where opinions on Verrazano begin to diverge, with many people jumping off his bandwagon, which of course is fine by me. Many pundits are procliaming that Verrazano regressed in the Wood Memorial (citing Beyer figures or whatever), the fact that he won by a diminishing margin (in stark contrast to his huge winning margins beforehand), suggesting he has distance limitations, he's been overrated all along, whatever. I think these people are overlooking some key points, such as:
(1) The previously unbeaten colt Vyjack (who was racing on his home track, mind you) was sitting right on Verrazano's flank turning for home in the Wood, and Verrazano simply outkicked him to the wire (which he definitely should have, given the soft early fractions, but hey, he did what he was supposed to do, no problem). He was also never seriously threatened by the close-finishing Normandy Invasion, whom strangely enough, many of these same people like in the Derby based on his performance in the Wood (go figure). While not as close to Verrazano as close as Vyjack was, Normandy Invasion still had very little excuse not to run down Verrazano if he was good enough (especially if Verrazano reportedly ran so poorly), particularly based on Point #2, which is:
(2) Verrazano was coming off a minor hoof injury sustained in the TB Derby, and also, he was not in need of any additional points in order to make the Derby field, while Normandy Invasion most certainly DID need points, so it serves to reason that Verrazano was definitely not cranked up for the Wood Memorial, where as Normandy Invasion definitely was. Based on that knowlege, it's reasonable to expect that Verrazano is more likely to improve in the Derby tha Normandy Invasion will be, and in fact, is one of the more likely horses to show improvement in the entire Derby field.
Not that Normandy Invasion is the only horse he'll have to beat, far from it. But consider these other points:
(3) Verrazano has excellent tactical speed (and broke very sharply in the Wood Memorial, btw), which always a major positive in that 20-horse cavalry charge known as the Derby. As a result of that, he's more likely to work out a good trip for himself (and avoid traffic) than several other contenders who will be farther back early, horses such as Orb, Revolutionary, Normady Invasion, Java's War, etc.
(4) Verrazano has already posted wins on 3 different racing surfaces, a factor that shouldn't be overlooked heading into Churchill Downs (where most of the fiels has never raced before). That's no guarantee he'll take to the surface, but it does seem to make him one of the more likley horses to handle it.
(5) As mentioned above, he's routinely been working out with multiple graded stakes winners, from the time that he was a simple maiden winner. That speak to his quality.
(6) His trainer has won the Derby before (always a plus), with a horse coming out of the Tampa Bay Derby, same as Verrazano is. Tampa Bay has a deeper racing surface that always serves as nice place to train some stamina into your Derby prospect, as the connections of the impressive Derby winner Street Sense might also attest.
Just a lot of things to like about the horse, not the least of which is that he's no longer the flavor-of-the-month, with many people looking for alternatives after his purportedly sub-par final prep race. I would guess that he'll probably go off somewhere around the 9/2 or 5/1 mark, which would make for a slight overlay i think. I make him around 4/1 to win the race, and i don't think he'll be any lower than that on the toteboard. In fact, i think there's a decent chance he won't even go favored (i think it'll be close between he and Orb, with some of the others like Revolutionary, Goldencents, and Normandy Invasion probably not all that far behind). While Verrazano is certainly no lock (no Derby entrant ever is), i do think he's the most likely winner, and i don't think he's getting the respect he desesrves. I like him as much as any horse going into the Derby since Big Brown, who of course was a much lower price than Verrazano will be. My two cents.
Comments
Now to the negative factors this horse is carrying two BIG JINXS!!!!!!
#1 - DRAYNAY touting this one like he cannot get beat!!!!!!!
#2 - Never raced as a 2yo!!!!!!!
Jinx #1 holds far more weight...
the 1st jinx ... SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF ME!!!
I kinda agree too, but I'm off if he's on. It's like Brad Free, he could make fucking Secretariat lose.
Almost? His "most probable winners" in the last 2 days have been 1/5 and 4/5 respectively, and neither has run a lick. At least one was out of the money. I literally joke with trainers that if he starts asking you questions for an article about your horse, run.
2- Orb
3- Vyjack
4- Palice Malice
5- Overanalyze
There's no way Verrazano goes off anywhere near 2/1. I think the absolute lowest would be 7/2, and personally I think he'll be closer to 9/2.
Frist off Verrazano is no GEMOLOGIST!!!!! Second the only way V is under 4/1 is that he works like a WILD BEAST over the surface and all the media pundits blast it starting this week till post time. There is always a buzz horse and the first one at CH will be Revolutionary starting with Calving BoRail, he is always over bet since winning with Mine That Bird and Departing winning the Illinois Derby yesterday will validate the race for many. Second you already have My Lute ripping the CH surface a new asshole in his last two works. You have a local connections with Tom Amoss and he will be all over TVG and the local newspapers as well. If anyone loves V then they shoud bet him with two fist as he will be the biggest price of his career on the first Saturday in May!!!! BOOK IT!!!!!!!
gl, fb
While I still haven't put my full foot forward into handicapping the race, I will be doing so in the not so distant future. From his preps, I have always thought that V has had some left in the tank. I also like that he can stalk close to the pace. With the distance, the head start going into the lane will be key, since it won't be a blistering pace this time.
Verrazano (five furlongs in 59.95) broke off 1 1/2 lengths behind the recently graded stakes-placed mare Authenticity and loped through an opening furlong in 13.02 under jockey Gary Stevens. The Wood Memorial winner picked up the pace entering the turn but had to be asked a bit by Stevens to join up with his partner nearing the quarter pole. Verrazano fanned about four paths wide into the stretch and ultimately edged a head in front at the wire while completing his final quarter in 23.28. He then galloped out willingly albeit with a little late encouragement from Stevens to keep up with Authenticity re-entering the backstretch.
We intentionally set him off the other horse, said Pletcher. Shes a very good work horse and already had the luxury of having breezed over this track. I thought it was a very excellent breeze, after which we got the gallop out we were looking for. I thought he got over the track nicely and responded really well when Gary asked him to pick it up a notch.
Pa-lice Ma-lice!
At this time I don't see Verrazano going off the favorite., right now I'm hearing it will be Rev or Orb at post time. Verrazano might be 3rd choice when the gates pop on Saturday. It will be great for you to get a big overlay price on this colt. You will get every bit of 5/1++ Best of Luck DCAT!!!
Last year I thought Rags would be favored and he was until some whale dropped a jillion $ on Bodemeister 30 seconds before the gates opened.
More than anything, they'll affect the head-to-head matchup prices around Vegas. As long as the relative difference between the prices remains roughly the same though, it's not that big a deal. Was glad to see Orb get the nod there.
Yeah, i was happy to see that. Actually gave out Authenticity on my site today too! :toast: