Whose backing Orb and who is looking elsewhere?
FlyinLate
Senior Member
As the Preakness field contenders are starting to become confirmed, I'm interested to see who is coming right back with Orb and who is going elsewhere?
At this point in time, I feel I'll be backing Goldencents. He sat just off a suicidal sloppy pace and when Krigger knew it wasn't his race to win, eased him out of it rather than burning up his energy. We all know he can bounce back after a dismal effort to win (see Santa Anita Derby) and the like 6-1 to 8-1 value he offers is far more enticing than Orb at even money.
While Orb's race was extremely impressive, there is one bit of info that I cant seem to get over and that was that 4 of the top 5 finishers came from right next to each other in the race. The second fastest pace in a Derby and a complete meltdown where horses from 14-18 range are only ones with a shot. Can anyone else recall a Derby where this happened? When Street Sense won he came solo from the back. When Mine that Bird won, same thing. This was literally the entire rear of the field flip flopping with the front at the final turn. Is Orb the most likely winner of the Preakness? Absolutely. Do I give him a 50%+ chance to win to merit even money? No.
Good luck to everyone with their wagers this weekend!
At this point in time, I feel I'll be backing Goldencents. He sat just off a suicidal sloppy pace and when Krigger knew it wasn't his race to win, eased him out of it rather than burning up his energy. We all know he can bounce back after a dismal effort to win (see Santa Anita Derby) and the like 6-1 to 8-1 value he offers is far more enticing than Orb at even money.
While Orb's race was extremely impressive, there is one bit of info that I cant seem to get over and that was that 4 of the top 5 finishers came from right next to each other in the race. The second fastest pace in a Derby and a complete meltdown where horses from 14-18 range are only ones with a shot. Can anyone else recall a Derby where this happened? When Street Sense won he came solo from the back. When Mine that Bird won, same thing. This was literally the entire rear of the field flip flopping with the front at the final turn. Is Orb the most likely winner of the Preakness? Absolutely. Do I give him a 50%+ chance to win to merit even money? No.
Good luck to everyone with their wagers this weekend!
Comments
Nine days after winning the Kentucky Derby and five days before he looks to add the Preakness to his résumé, Orb worked four furlongs in 47.18 seconds Monday morning over the Belmont Park main track.
I was not expecting to hear that time, Patterson said. He just does things so easily; its scary how easily he does it. I was a little nervous. I thought I hope I dont get in trouble. Shug just looked at me when I came off the track and said scary. I said Yeah, hes a freak. I never sat on anything like him that can do things as easily as him.
Goldencents finished 17th as the third betting choice in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), which was contested over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill Downs.
"It was one of those races where...we just had to go back to the drawing board," said Krigger, who has been aboard for all seven of Goldencents' races. "We didn't get the outcome we were looking for, but the greatest thing is the horse came back healthy and we're here getting ready for the Preakness."
Krigger said he eased up on the son of Into Mischief once he realized he was out of contention in the Derby, so he hasn't lost any confidence in him. O'Neill admitted he was impressed by the fact that Krigger did the right thing by his colt.
"Kevin's such a positive guy and such a positive rider," O'Neill said May 14 after Krigger took Goldencents out for his regular morning gallop around Pimlico Race Course. "He's been great with the horse, and we're pretty lucky to have a guy to make that kind of commitment. It just shows how dedicated he is and how passionate he is. He's a real team player."
Krigger said it wasn't a difficult decision to make the commitment to Goldencents.
"I have a lot of faith in him," Krigger said. "I've been on this horse every time, and these guys stuck with me. They kept me on this horse this far, and I would have felt bad if I was in California after they asked me to stay here... As easily as I could have ridden other horses back there, they could have had someone else on him. I'm on him because they have faith in my riding ability and we get alongnot just me and the horse, but me and the entire team. They're great to work with."
Meanwhile, Krigger has become something of a local hero in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where his family still lives.
"I found out about two days before the Derby that I had a Facebook page," said the 29-year-old Preakness rookie. "I guess it was put together by my sister and my cousin, and my mother informed me that the Virgin Islands media are trying to get hold of me to do interviews. She also informed me that a lot of kids are leaving comments as far as I inspired them to follow their dreams. I don't really keep up with social media, but that made me appreciate [it]."
Only two of the past eight Derby winners have also captured the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown: Big Brown in 2008 and the O'Neill-trained I'll Have Another last year. (I'll Have Another never got his Triple Crown chance when he came up injured the day before the Belmont Stakes).
"I feel we have a good chance to win again; if we get a good trip, I think we can," said O'Neill, who also paid his respects to Derby winner Orb. "Shug's (McGaughey) a Hall of Fame trainer. (Orb) is a Triple Crown threat for sure."
Read more on BloodHorse.com: Krigger: Preakness Dreams and Racing History | BloodHorse.com
the best bet is the Exacta Orb/all and hope for a long shot like in the derby to place for a good score. lol scary sounds funny but is true. Orb runs like he's from 2planets beyond(reminds me of Zenyatta
the way he picks up speed coming around the turn just getting faster with every stride making the Race Intense and thrilling b4 the wired). wow im very Impress and i was feeling this B4 the derby.
im looking @ Departing and all the runners that didn't run KD139.
i know it sounds crazy me all over Orb but he has this charm that sparkles down the stretch when he's running.
I'm not quite sure I've seen this level of infatuation with a horse since Draynay got the ban hammer :smoking:
Hard to back Orb at the expected price. Hard to beat him, also. I think i'll probably just be looking at some matchups.
You mention Governor Charlie; he's one horse that i'll be looking to play against. Sometime between his win in the Sunland Derby and his intended start in the Kentucky Derby, he ended up as a patient @ the Rood & Riddle equine clinic, which is never good. He then went to Churchill and resumed training for the Derby (surprising if you ask me), but then looked bad enough in training that Baffert decided to pass (leaving himself without a starter in the process). So it's pretty safe to assume he was in very rough shape as recently as just a couple of weeks ago. Draw your own conclusions from that...
Agree that those kind of statements mean a lot more coming from Shug than they would some other trainers. You do have to keep in mind that he just won his first Derby, so i'm sure he's excited and also quite enamored with the horse.
Still a great sign though, and it's not out off line with the kind of reviews he was getting before the Derby, either. It certainly sounds like he's maintained his form. Also, the Derby winner traditionally runs well in the Preakness, for whatever reason. So there's also that. .
One thing to consider DC - and it doesn't reflect either way my opinion on the horse. Bob Baffert had 6 or 8 horses drop dead (for apparent unknown reasons), so Governor Chuck might have just had a stubbed toe, and Baffert was being extra cautious. Only a thought.
Might be him incarnate. Although, we had him on Verrazano right?
I believe so. Unfortunately, I found myself in the same boat as Draynay on derby day.
I'm pretty sure you had a good week before that. In the article in tomorrow's Form, Joel sounds pretty confident, too. He says Orb was MUCH the best, and the only reason he even flagged him at the end is because the Derby. He doesn't hit horses very often anymore, he just rides the good ones the way they should be ridden.