Hello to "all" the handicappers here.
twindouble
Junior Member
I was surprised to see so many picks posted, seems you all get right down to business. I like to talk horses, so I feel like I would put a crimp in what's already established on this forum. What do you think?
I'm by no means new to the game, I'll soon be closing out my 47th year handicapping and gambling on the horses. I'll wait for some responce.
Regards,
twindouble
I'm by no means new to the game, I'll soon be closing out my 47th year handicapping and gambling on the horses. I'll wait for some responce.
Regards,
twindouble
Comments
Thanks, wire2wire.
Pleasure to meet old hats like myself, don't know about you guys but I'm set in my ways. I handicap and think the traditional way.
lukas when he trained quarter horses before he and lipham switched over to the big time..so
i have many good stories, and good memories.....so when you are ready to talk horses
lets roll. i have been a california horseracing board appoved handicapper for 20 years,
i love the ponies, been lucky to have friends who race horses, so i get some real nice
tips once in awhile.......good luck and good racing!!!!
now they scratch the horse if it has to carry 124lbs....lol...what's up with that...
Sure, I'll throw out a story or two, just keep me in check.
I'll do my best :thumbup1:
I'm out for the night, hope to see an interesting read or two tomorrow.
Thanks to all that responded.
Didn't respond to this last night because I was napping at my desk. I don't why but for some reason I sleep less and nap more nowadays.
Over the years weight has been and still is down the list of important factors, Esp in sprint races. I don't ever recall handicapping a 4 1/2, 5f or 5 1/2f race having weight being the only deciding factor to wager. I'm talking 3yo and up, wagering on the babies are to risky for me. Route races, mile 1/16 or more weight becomes a factor and I agree more so today than in the past.( depending on how the horses match up in the race).
When you say "back in the day", many things have changed as I'm sure you know, they make for other topics like breeding, (speed), poly tracks, gimmicks, drugs, rebates, well a host of things that warrant conversation and adjustments we handicappers had to make. My gut always told me, whenever there's change there's opertunity for us gamblers and I can assure you that's a fact. I will say this, in spite of the changes that have accured, the core of handicapping is still there, that will never change regardless of how powerful computers become. Once players lose sight of that or aren't exposed to it, they might just as well buy quick picks and pull slots. That will be the undoing of racing as you, I and other old timers I know it, thats sad when you think about it.
Good luck today.
Thanks for the thread.
I have been meaning to post a similar thread. Picks are great, yet what most interest's me is how/what the players use as their betting methodology and bankroll/money management systems.
I do not mean to demean picks, they are helpful and wonderful, as are handicapping tips, yet, like in sports, it's not always who you pick, but how you bet who you pick.
If there is interest I'll start a new thread.
Regards,
Hello dragon;
Yes, wagering strategies are very important, keep in mind what I say doesn't come from any book I've read on racing or wagering, I personally have nothing for sale now nor will I have in the future. I'm proud to say I'm a gambler plus a handicapper or what ever you want to put first. Think about it, at one time we had just win, place and show or an exacta, depending when you were exposed to the game. Now we have a large menu, many different pools to attack.
IMHO, maybe the most difficult thing is matching ones personalty with their betting strategy. I submit no strategy works for everyone no matter how good it might be.
You are absolutely correct about the multiplicity of pools available. To me that makes strategy & bankroll management even more critical.
Regards,
That make for another interesting conversation, ( the psychology of a gambler). The same applies to handicapping as well.
Bankroll, bankroll, bankroll. Without a reasonable one your more apt to fail. There's only one kind of bankroll that any player should have, that's one you don't need to meet any other responsibly in your everyday work life. That alone creates the right fame of mind to gamble. It's easy today to manage your money, online wagering sites pretty much do that for you, not that hard to figure out what's working and what isn't. Every wager is right there for you to look at.
I keep a separate bank account for my gambling, with the exception of INK my overhead has dropped by wagering online. I just hope the DRF doesn't wake up and start charging more for such a good product. Factor in inflation, we are still get our PP's cheep.
Surly your wagering strategy should be built around the size of your bank roll but I have no set limit on what I'll wager on any given day. Those that say wager just a percentage of your bankroll is a mistake in my opinion. There's days and conditions when you need to step out for a real good score. Should have or could have isn't part of my gambling vocabulary, I did suits me fine, win or lose. Over the years I've made this my rule, "never leave the track broke".
I take it this forum is just getting off the ground so if you all don't mind I'll carry on. Your post got me thinking some more, ESP on what makes a winning player. Sure anyone can buy the books out there on how to but I would think they skip over what's in the inner core "personality" of those winners and losers. The big question is what does it take achieve even moderate success. I'm leading off with "moderate" because that alone sews the seed to become life time players, once this game gets under your skin in most cases there's no turning back. In Turfmans case seeing both sides even cements it further I would think. Being a fan of racing my thinking was, if I didn't make it gambling on them, some day I'll own them so I'm hooked for life regardless.
So you beginners out there that's what your getting into, as far as I'm concerned you'll never regret it, if you get off on the right foot including the right frame of mind. That's were I'm going with this subject. I would like to think most people can learn the game, if they are serious enough about it and are willing to spend the necessary time and energy. Like I said, I had my mentors as well. Like Dragonswirl infered, not all are equipped to secceed for what ever the reasons and there's many.
I don't want to bore you all to death, ESP when your gearing up for your action for the day, so if your interested in what I have to say and have the time, I'll continue later on.
regards,
twindouble
I've got an hr and forty five min to go over the card at Mountaineer, I'll be back after I do my thing.
Good luck
Got busy doing real work today and didn't get a chance to respond.
I came at horses from a bit different perpective. I have dabbled for years, yet NEVER had the confidence that I could be good at handicapping. The major factor I believed was time.
What I am very good at is taking other peoples picks/judgements/thoughts and either choosing the best and/or applying my own betting strategy for modest profit. I do this for investments, sports, & horses...poker is a do it yourself situation.
That's why betting strategies are of particular interest to me. I have been making the effort over the past few years to learn at least some very basic handicapping. Since I am an accountant, I find the mechanical/numbers based approaches most appealing. Bottom line, I would call myself a picker NOT a handicapper, that goes for sports as well.
I am getting better at recognizing trips, yet I have not yet gotten very good at noticing much of what's gone other than my pick(s). An example is Barrier Reef in the 4th at Aqueduct Thursday the 8th. I guess the jockey was saving ground on the rail, and Barrier Reef put on a late drive and the rail didn't open up, and he had to check up. Finished 3rd, IMHO, would have won if not running into the proverbial brick wall. I presume it's useful info, I just don't quite know what to do with it :-) Also, how many other useful bits of information did I miss?
Regards,
I finished late tonight, went on to Hollywood Park, wife and I did ok at Mnr.
Having time to indulge and learn is a major problem with most players.
Wagering by consensus is fine but you'll always be on a roller coaster ride but will have a lot of fun doing it.
Trip handicapping is a basic form of handicapping, I don't know what I would do without it. Your right to make notes of what you saw. When I trip handicap I'm watching the whole race from start to finish, all the horses, not just what I bet. I make the race as I see it on the form, when horses are where I "estimated" them to be, either out of the gate, to the first turn, on the lead and so on, I'm looking to see why. Any minor loss of ground I ignore, any horse that was seriously compromised, I make note and then go back to watch the replay to make sure I got it right. When the race runs what I considered "true to form", it's history so I forget about it. When those horse on my watch list come back agains't simular company and conditions or lesser you have yourself one hell an "edge." That's what gambling is all about, the edge.
When it comes to wagering strategies, I'll get into it another time. I've been talking chaos in racing for many and I mean many years, that's also built into my wagering strategy.
I'll be back on here Sunday night, tomorrow is our anniversary so we are going out to our favorite restaurant where we had our first date. Sunday is also my 67th birthday.
Until then, good luck.
twindouble
I'll cut through the chase on the subject of winners, losers, personalities and so on. I'll start out by saying horse players come from all walks of life, a mixed bag. Some for sure shouldn't get involved in gambling of any kind, or for that matter anything that's addictive. They make up a small percentage of the overall players. Don't get me wrong, those that fall in that category, are not necessarily bad people, sure there's a few we would like to see banned from the track, or OTB and sent to rehab.
The above isn't any thing new to you but there's fine lines between addictions and enjoyment or any other extra activity we call recreation. A friend said it best, " I don't work my ass off for everyone else's enjoyment." That's the majority of us, other than those that in one form of another are involved professionally. We on the other hand have to do a balancing act between work, family and not be influenced by the negative connotations that come with gambling on the horses. That can be done, I've done it for 47 years now and I was never just a weekend player.
I'll close out this subject by saying there's no exceptional individual traits or hidden secretes that exist to become or be a winner. Common sense, patience, emotional control (bury the ego) along with a reasonable amount of dedication following the horses and connections. Of course you have to know how to read the racing form. The basics can carry you a long way until you fine tune your strengths and wagering strategies.
If anyone wants me to elaborate further, I will.
Good luck today,
My answer to that is not to separate the term "wagering strategies" from your handicapping, they of course go hand and hand. What he is indirectly referring to is some players for what ever the reason are unable to capitalize on a good thing. They can be fairly good handicappers but never really got a handle on "how to gamble". Over the years I've seen good handicappers go by the wayside, some I admit better than I but I was able to survive and don't call me lucky.
Short story; Myself and two other buddies were at Lincoln Downs, rained most of the morning and continued all afternoon. We liked a horse in the last race going mile 1/16, figure to have the lead and loved the sly going. Come race time we "unloaded", the starting gate was in a shoot for that distance. When the horses went to the post they were mulling around, jocks got off the horses and the starter was walking around with them. We figured they would cancel the race due to poor track conditions. About 10 to 15 min passed and they announced the race would be run at 7f. We ran back to the windows and loaded up again. You get the picture. The horse paid $27 to win easily.
Like Turfman said there's no sure thing, the horse could have come out of the gate and broke a leg but if your not willing to gamble on your picks, why bother. Esp when you believe you have an edge like that. Granted that scenario never happened again but you get the point.
That story is also relevant in this way, in those days picking winners only was every players goal, we didn't have the wagering menu that exists today. When the tri come out, most handicappers called it a suckers bet, having to pick two losers. Not me, I saw it as an opportunity to make money, most had no clue as to how to play it, the same applied to other gimmicks that come about.
Ok, when it comes to gimmicks it's kind of old hat now, been around for long time and many handicappers have made the adjustment to them, I hope to think. I don't include the picks as gimmicks, we are still picking just winners, no different than the DD that been around for long time as well. I still consider picking winners the heart of handicapping and gambling but today winners along with contenders have tentacles that reach out to the gimmicks,(pools) exacta's, tri's, supers including the picks. I don't know what to call the place pick all, your horses can lose and still win. hehe. Fun game isn't it?
Next post I'll get into what I think is a fairly good wagering strategy. What the heck, a little history and a window to my mind set doesn't hurt.
Meanwhile, good luck.
Please keep posting, I have been busy and will reply as soon as I can.
Regards,
Thanks for letting me know your still around. Was getting lonely here thinking I'm talking to myself.
Before I go any further I'll throw out a few things for thought that I think are relevant to any wagering strategy. I except the fact others approach the game different than I or their strategy is similar to mine. I don't knock success so if it works for them, all the more power to them. I will say this, guys like Turfman, wiretowire and other pubic handicappers have a tough nut to crack putting their picks out there for the public. Esp when they are doing full cards at different tracks. It's very rare that I would play a full card, when I do it's with friends for a fun day.
At times I'm totally amazed how the form holds up in given races, that builds confidence in what your reading. Short story; Friend asked me who I liked in a race, 10 horse field, I said " how about if I tell you who I don't like," I mentioned one horse. He stood there waiting for me add more, the he said "well, who else"? I said that's it going to be a blanket finish," adding anyone of the others could win it depending on who gets the breaks. The finish was 6 horses at the wire within a length, one on the rail that couldn't get through and another that checked hard mid pack in the stretch run having to move to the outside for racing room. Needless to say, I didn't bet the race but he did. My point here is, when to bet and when not to. That's a very important part of my wagering strategy.
Evaluating the card for "playable" races. If your an "action player", ignore what I have to say. Boy, I've seen action players make some real good scores, then blow it in a short time, for them it's like getting a fix every now and then. To many highs and lows for me. Evaluating the races is based on how well you know the horses, connections, knowing how to read the form including the written conditions. That will tell you if the races are playable and if they fit into your wagering strategy.
My overall strategy is to attack any pool where I think I can make a buck, again that's based on selectively picking those races I deem "playable". Here's an example. I get notice there's a huge carryover in the pick 6 at this track or that track. I first scan the card and conditions, there's 3 races with a total of 29 2yo's coming out of the gate for the first time. I'll pass for sure, thinking there could very well be another carryover and I wouldn't invest so much to put my bankroll in jeopardy. More often than not I'm right to pass, ESP when I think there's to many unknowns or the races are just to competitive.
I don't ever bet heavy to win or place on deep closer's unless they out class the field at the distance and there's value in my plays. When there's not a lot that separates deep closer's from the rest of the field being "chalk" it's a toss out on the win or place bet, a filler in the super, yes. The reason for that is obvious, they can get into to much trouble looking for racing room and getting clear for their best stride, plus the pace can throw them off their game. I know it's a thrill to have your horse come from way back to win but in the long run it doesn't pay to bet heavy on them unless the first sentence applies.
I'll be back
Good luck today.
I'll be back later.
bbyhill; If you want my opinion on sythetic surfaces, you can e-mail me. This is a nice site but I don't feel I belong here, I'm sorry to say.
Regards and good luck.
How can I email you
berkhandicapper@aol.com