Gotham Stakes Breakdown
BGboothA
Junior Member
Eleven 3 year olds with their sights set on Churchill Downs enter the G3-Gotham Stakes, with the winner receiving 50 points toward their run to the Kentucky Derby and all but assuring the a spot in the Derby gates. The 1 1/16 mile race on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt will feature two young horses that have yet to lose in their short careers.
IN TROUBLE This is one of the most interesting horses in the field, the undefeated Anthony Dutrow trained horse hasnt raced since the middle of September after an impressive win in the G2-Belmont Futurity. (In Trouble - 2013 Futurity S. (G2) - YouTube) In Trouble ran just off a solid pace set by the 9/5 favorite Corfu, coming up down the stretch and pulling away over the final furlong without a great deal of urging from jockey Joseph Rocco. In Trouble hasnt raced in 5 months and will take on 2 turns for the first time, stretching out from 6 furlongs back in September to a 1 1/16 mile seems like quite a stretch.
FINANCIAL MOGUL After a poor showing in the Holy Bull Stakes Financial Mogul looks to bounce back and take on another graded stakes field here in the Gotham Stakes. Financial Mogul hasnt been close in his last three starts which have all been graded stakes. He finished a far back 4th in the Belmont Futurity in September followed by a 2 ½ length loss in the Nashua Stakes. Financial Mogul is coming 2nd off a layoff and has been working out well but just seems over classed here in the stakes world.
UNCLE SIGH The duel between Uncle Sigh and Samraat just a few weeks ago in the Withers was a race to remember. (2014 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct- Samraat Wins 2014 Withers Stakes - YouTube) Uncle Sigh has only won 1 of his three races, but that single win was by 14 lengths and his two losses were by less than a combined 1 length. Uncle Sigh looked strong in his close loss to Samraat a few weeks ago and hasnt ran a race with a Brisnet speed figure under 96. Uncle Sigh adds a bullet workout two weeks ago and looks forward to a rematch with Samraat again in the Gotham.
NOBLE CORNERSTONE Noble Cornerstone was a disappointing favorite in the Sam F Davis stakes on the first of February finishing a far back 7th at less than 2-1. Some may point to the layoff heading into the Sam F Davis and now will be coming 2nd off the layoff. Noble Cornerstone will also place the blinkers back on after taking them off for his poor showing and could return back to the same form that had him in the mix during his first two races.
MONOPOLIZE Nothing like a horse making a class jump after a poor showing against weaker horses in his last race. Monopolize is coming off a tough showing 6th place in an OC75k race in which he was never a factor in the overall race. While his pedigree points toward a decent runner at this distance, Monopolize hasnt shown the ability to run a race close to the finish of a graded stakes. The addition of blinkers may bring some money onto this longshot, but in the end I dont see him close to the finish.
DECEIVED Another horse making a jump in class from a OC75K race is Deceived. The difference is that Deceived won his OC race by more than 8 lengths across the same Aqueduct Inner Dirt that the Gotham will be held on. Deceived took a big jump his last time out after losing to Samraat by 19 lengths in the race previously in December. Deceived may have a better case then Monopolize, but neither belong in the conversation regarding the Gotham.
CLASSIC GIACNROLL We liked Classic Giacnroll going into the Withers, but he spent the race watching Samraat and Uncle Sigh battle and finish 14 lengths ahead of him a few weeks ago. After two solid racing moving into the route distance, Classic Giacnroll took a large step back in the Withers. A solid second place in the G2 Jerome stakes seem so long ago and yet another rider change doesnt point toward a horse that may not have graded stakes in his future.
SAMRAAT Undefeated in four starts and coming off a two strong showing at over a mile, Samraat should be the post time favorite. In fact Samraat hasnt been worse than 1.15-1 in in last three starts. The Withers finished with Samraat out dueling the leader Uncle Sigh as they moved down the stretch. The interesting aspect of watching the replay of that race (2014 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct- Samraat Wins 2014 Withers Stakes - YouTube) Uncle is that Jose Ortiz doesnt seem to really be asking for everything Samraat had as he pulled away from Uncle Sigh in the last parts of the race. I dont think we have seen the best of what Samraat has to offer and thats scary considering the Withers is the first time he has had a horse finish within 3 lengths of the finish. Two back to back 99 Brisnet speed ratings shows his ability to win this race without a strong move forward. The outside post position could be a problem if Samraat goes out for the lead. If Samraat can show that he can rate just off the pace, this horse could be something special.
EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER On top of having the best name in the race, this isnt a horse to overlook here in the Gotham. Extrasexyhippzster is taking a jump up in class that could be troublesome, but his last race was impressive win in the ungraded Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. (Laurel Park 01/25/14 race 6 - Miracle Wood Stakes - YouTube) Extrasexyhippster is another horse that I am not sure we have seen everything from Julian Pimentel never had to test the horse in the Miracle Wood, and Extrasexyhippzsters win in the Don Rickles Stakes wasnt close either winning by an easy 5 lengths in 6 furlongs along the Aqueduct inner dirt. I will be interested in what kind of price you will be able to get on this one come post time, I dont think he can beat Samraat, but if someone can it may be Extrasexyhippzster.
MASTER LIGHTNING - Being the most raced horse in the field may not help Master Lightning here in this field. Finishing a far back 4th in the Miracle Wood to ExtraSexy after a rough 7th in the Jerome doesnt enlist a great deal of belief that Master Lightning belongs in this field for the Gotham. Speed figures arent anywhere close to what would be needed to win here and pedigree doesnt point toward the ability for a huge jump. Master Lightning hasnt finished in the money in four stakes tries and really hasnt been within 6 lengths during any of those races. I dont see his luck changing in the Gotham and he shouldnt be part of the overall picture.
HARPOON Harpoon is coming off a strong showing second place in the Sam F Davis stakes down in Tampa back on the first of February losing by a nose. The far outside post is not going to help Harpoon who is going to have to rate off the pace and will need help from the rest of the field to have a shot at the winners circle. Harpoon has been working out very well recently and looks to be in good form, it wouldnt surprise me to see Harpoon in the money here and will probably get a few of the points for the Derby. But catching Uncle Sigh, Samraat or ExtraSexy is going to be tough coming through the rest of the traffic. If the pace is insane and the winner comes from the rear, Harpoon may have a shot to hunt down the leaders, but its going to take a perfect trip.
The pace in this race is going to be interesting the inside gates will look to pounce on the pace with In Trouble leading the way. It will be interesting to see what Uncle Sigh and Samraat do when In Trouble pressing the pace from the inside. In Trouble is a quality horse with question marks, they cant just let him take an easy pace on the lead and hope that he doesnt have the distance in him. But if one of them jumps out with him they may open it up to the other who rates just behind them. In the end I think its Samraats race to lose, he just looks too good at up to this point. I will be keeping my eye on ExtraSexy as a long shot who may produce some good value.
IN TROUBLE This is one of the most interesting horses in the field, the undefeated Anthony Dutrow trained horse hasnt raced since the middle of September after an impressive win in the G2-Belmont Futurity. (In Trouble - 2013 Futurity S. (G2) - YouTube) In Trouble ran just off a solid pace set by the 9/5 favorite Corfu, coming up down the stretch and pulling away over the final furlong without a great deal of urging from jockey Joseph Rocco. In Trouble hasnt raced in 5 months and will take on 2 turns for the first time, stretching out from 6 furlongs back in September to a 1 1/16 mile seems like quite a stretch.
FINANCIAL MOGUL After a poor showing in the Holy Bull Stakes Financial Mogul looks to bounce back and take on another graded stakes field here in the Gotham Stakes. Financial Mogul hasnt been close in his last three starts which have all been graded stakes. He finished a far back 4th in the Belmont Futurity in September followed by a 2 ½ length loss in the Nashua Stakes. Financial Mogul is coming 2nd off a layoff and has been working out well but just seems over classed here in the stakes world.
UNCLE SIGH The duel between Uncle Sigh and Samraat just a few weeks ago in the Withers was a race to remember. (2014 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct- Samraat Wins 2014 Withers Stakes - YouTube) Uncle Sigh has only won 1 of his three races, but that single win was by 14 lengths and his two losses were by less than a combined 1 length. Uncle Sigh looked strong in his close loss to Samraat a few weeks ago and hasnt ran a race with a Brisnet speed figure under 96. Uncle Sigh adds a bullet workout two weeks ago and looks forward to a rematch with Samraat again in the Gotham.
NOBLE CORNERSTONE Noble Cornerstone was a disappointing favorite in the Sam F Davis stakes on the first of February finishing a far back 7th at less than 2-1. Some may point to the layoff heading into the Sam F Davis and now will be coming 2nd off the layoff. Noble Cornerstone will also place the blinkers back on after taking them off for his poor showing and could return back to the same form that had him in the mix during his first two races.
MONOPOLIZE Nothing like a horse making a class jump after a poor showing against weaker horses in his last race. Monopolize is coming off a tough showing 6th place in an OC75k race in which he was never a factor in the overall race. While his pedigree points toward a decent runner at this distance, Monopolize hasnt shown the ability to run a race close to the finish of a graded stakes. The addition of blinkers may bring some money onto this longshot, but in the end I dont see him close to the finish.
DECEIVED Another horse making a jump in class from a OC75K race is Deceived. The difference is that Deceived won his OC race by more than 8 lengths across the same Aqueduct Inner Dirt that the Gotham will be held on. Deceived took a big jump his last time out after losing to Samraat by 19 lengths in the race previously in December. Deceived may have a better case then Monopolize, but neither belong in the conversation regarding the Gotham.
CLASSIC GIACNROLL We liked Classic Giacnroll going into the Withers, but he spent the race watching Samraat and Uncle Sigh battle and finish 14 lengths ahead of him a few weeks ago. After two solid racing moving into the route distance, Classic Giacnroll took a large step back in the Withers. A solid second place in the G2 Jerome stakes seem so long ago and yet another rider change doesnt point toward a horse that may not have graded stakes in his future.
SAMRAAT Undefeated in four starts and coming off a two strong showing at over a mile, Samraat should be the post time favorite. In fact Samraat hasnt been worse than 1.15-1 in in last three starts. The Withers finished with Samraat out dueling the leader Uncle Sigh as they moved down the stretch. The interesting aspect of watching the replay of that race (2014 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct- Samraat Wins 2014 Withers Stakes - YouTube) Uncle is that Jose Ortiz doesnt seem to really be asking for everything Samraat had as he pulled away from Uncle Sigh in the last parts of the race. I dont think we have seen the best of what Samraat has to offer and thats scary considering the Withers is the first time he has had a horse finish within 3 lengths of the finish. Two back to back 99 Brisnet speed ratings shows his ability to win this race without a strong move forward. The outside post position could be a problem if Samraat goes out for the lead. If Samraat can show that he can rate just off the pace, this horse could be something special.
EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER On top of having the best name in the race, this isnt a horse to overlook here in the Gotham. Extrasexyhippzster is taking a jump up in class that could be troublesome, but his last race was impressive win in the ungraded Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. (Laurel Park 01/25/14 race 6 - Miracle Wood Stakes - YouTube) Extrasexyhippster is another horse that I am not sure we have seen everything from Julian Pimentel never had to test the horse in the Miracle Wood, and Extrasexyhippzsters win in the Don Rickles Stakes wasnt close either winning by an easy 5 lengths in 6 furlongs along the Aqueduct inner dirt. I will be interested in what kind of price you will be able to get on this one come post time, I dont think he can beat Samraat, but if someone can it may be Extrasexyhippzster.
MASTER LIGHTNING - Being the most raced horse in the field may not help Master Lightning here in this field. Finishing a far back 4th in the Miracle Wood to ExtraSexy after a rough 7th in the Jerome doesnt enlist a great deal of belief that Master Lightning belongs in this field for the Gotham. Speed figures arent anywhere close to what would be needed to win here and pedigree doesnt point toward the ability for a huge jump. Master Lightning hasnt finished in the money in four stakes tries and really hasnt been within 6 lengths during any of those races. I dont see his luck changing in the Gotham and he shouldnt be part of the overall picture.
HARPOON Harpoon is coming off a strong showing second place in the Sam F Davis stakes down in Tampa back on the first of February losing by a nose. The far outside post is not going to help Harpoon who is going to have to rate off the pace and will need help from the rest of the field to have a shot at the winners circle. Harpoon has been working out very well recently and looks to be in good form, it wouldnt surprise me to see Harpoon in the money here and will probably get a few of the points for the Derby. But catching Uncle Sigh, Samraat or ExtraSexy is going to be tough coming through the rest of the traffic. If the pace is insane and the winner comes from the rear, Harpoon may have a shot to hunt down the leaders, but its going to take a perfect trip.
The pace in this race is going to be interesting the inside gates will look to pounce on the pace with In Trouble leading the way. It will be interesting to see what Uncle Sigh and Samraat do when In Trouble pressing the pace from the inside. In Trouble is a quality horse with question marks, they cant just let him take an easy pace on the lead and hope that he doesnt have the distance in him. But if one of them jumps out with him they may open it up to the other who rates just behind them. In the end I think its Samraats race to lose, he just looks too good at up to this point. I will be keeping my eye on ExtraSexy as a long shot who may produce some good value.
Comments
Nobody wants Uncle Sigh to win anymore than NBC--Their Derby coverage will include a big piece on the Wounded Warrior story..Contessa barn thinks Uncle Sigh came out of last race a better horse, and his works are certainly proof of that. Corey Nakatani comes in to ride, and no offense to Pablo Morales, but this is a positive jock change. This NY bred is very gutsy and will give you all he has. Can't ask for much more? Uncle Sigh will have to run no worse than 2nd to get the points necessary to get to Ky Derby, and I hope he does!
I'm taking a chance for a pace meltdown on this one with Financial Mogul. His last race has clearly come out pretty live. Apparently he had some breathing issues and has since recovered and worked well in preparation for this start. Good luck to all!
GL, FB
#CashingTickets
We just can't catch a break on the winter weather--more ice and sleet today in Hot Springs. Check back later for a longshot play today at OP!