Workout over the track

rabrown31

How important is that workout over the track? Just looking back to 2001-2013, horses that finished in the Super, how many of them actually had a work over the track? The answer


49 out of 52 or 94%



The 3 that did not workout over the track, but still manage to hit the board in the Derby are Ironically 3 horses that won the derby.

Funny Cide
Giacomo
I'll Have Another

FlyinLate

A workout over the track, to me, is more important to the handicapper than the horse. Training over a surface isn't going to make a horse like it, however, it will give handicappers a general idea of the horse gets over the track.

rabrown31

A statistic is just that. What do they mean for this year? We won't know until after the race, but what we do know is that in the past 13 years 94% of horses that have hit the board (1st-4th) have had a workout over the track. In the past 10 years 97.5% of horses that have hit the board have had a workout over the track. With those type of stats it really makes me wonder why some trainers refuse to workout over the track before the big dance. I personally like California Chrome, but I tell you I wish he would have worked out at Churchill.

dirtyshirt

What percentage of all Derby starters in the past 10 years had a work over the track? I want to give your stat some context.

rayphil

Also factor track conditions.

rabrown31

Majority of horses do workout over the Churchill surface before the derby. I am not sure what % it is, but just looking quickly through the last 13 years I counted something like 53 horses that did not workout at Churchill. In 2007 I believe 9 in the field of 20 chose not to. The statistic is a little bit misleading because so many do workout at Churchill and still bomb. The only reason I even looked at it was because I notices a few choosing not to have a work at Churchill.

rabrown31

It's so hard to factor in track condition. I have seen so many horses like mud, slop one day and then not run it in at all the next time. At Churchill who knows when the rail will be golden or dead due to the rain.

FlyinLate

dirtyshirt wrote: »

What percentage of all Derby starters in the past 10 years had a work over the track? I want to give your stat some context.

This.

People love to skew stats. While only a few horses have won without a work over the track, they are coming from a very small percentage of runners each year. Without all the details it is too easy to manipulate a stat.

rabrown31

Of course a stat can be manipulated depending on which way one sides. In 2007 the year street sense won, 9 horses did not workout at the track. Which if you were on the side of this stat would have cut your field from 20 to 11. With that being said, I do agree that the workout over track stat is over-rated. When I first posted it, I actually didn't realize that such a big percentage of each derby field works out over the track. When dirty, asked I looked and immediately saw that the stat was a bit flawed. Personally I still would rather see a work over the track, but I probably wouldn't eliminate a horse just because they didn't have one.