Whose your derby longshot?
FlyinLate
Senior Member
We all know the big names...Chrome, Wicked Strong, Hoppertunity, etc.
Give me one horse who is going to be 25-1 or higher that you feel can win or at least hit the board.
I think Commanding Curve is that horse. I've been waiting for this one to draw in since his race at FG. He blew the break, needed the race, closed in to slow fractions, weaved through traffic successfully, and passed nearly every horse in the race. He did alot of his running that race on the turn, which is where the Derby is truly won or lost. Although I would have liked a better work out from him recently, I'm willing to take a risk on him at his likely 35-1 or so odds.
Give me one horse who is going to be 25-1 or higher that you feel can win or at least hit the board.
I think Commanding Curve is that horse. I've been waiting for this one to draw in since his race at FG. He blew the break, needed the race, closed in to slow fractions, weaved through traffic successfully, and passed nearly every horse in the race. He did alot of his running that race on the turn, which is where the Derby is truly won or lost. Although I would have liked a better work out from him recently, I'm willing to take a risk on him at his likely 35-1 or so odds.
Comments
I was talking with Leroy Jolley one day about how Afleet Alex finished in the Ark Derby. We both agreed that he ran the best final 1/4 as any horse we ever saw. I think he went in 11.4/5 or something, and it was visually as good as it gets. Danza ran his in 12 flat, and this was over a much deeper surface than Afleet Alex ran over some years earlier. If Calvin can get a dream trip, which is unlikely, Ride On Curlin should be running late. Right now, so much depends on the draw, and if CC gets stuck in or out, this race could pay big balloons!
I'll be in Lexington for the next few days--still on the fence about going to Derby on Saturday?
On a unrelated topic, I know some young folks who are going to be in Hong Kong on Saturday, May 14-
does anybody know anyone at TVG who could help them get quality seating at Sha Tin? I know Bill Spencer who I met this year at OP, but I'm not sure if he is the international guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WT6Qrxbt10
Almost here means PETA shouldn't be far behind...
Danza is my choices but you asked for a Long Shot with a SHOT. Well it seems everybody has forgotten Mine That Bird. It can very well be that kind of Horse to WIN this year, only this one has Breeding up the Kazoo. Hennessy on the Sire side and AP Indy on the Dam Side. That my friends is Chitu, the Sunland Derby Winner. His 6f run was in a 1:09 and change and kept to the task. That tells me that he can run with the speed ( Hennessy ) and have the stamina for the distance ( AP Indy ). That's my long shot and will be one of my top 3.
1) Danza
2) California Chrome
3) Chitu
Boxed of course.
May The Horse Be With You......
Let me know or call me Friday if you plan on coming to CH. I still haven't bought my seats as of now. I'm waiting till the last minute.
GL, FB
Only horse in the field to have 2 wins in races that had 12+ runners (downside both on synthetic)
This one can come off the pace, I would think in the second half of the field
Animal kingdom used the same path (we miss Artie ran a faster spiral the AK)
Downside and you guys can shine some light on this, it seem TAP is using this one as a workmate for the others has he has been passed in his works this week. Correct?
Pedigree doesn't scream distance but has handled the longer races.
But I'm actually picking Wicked Strong to win this one.
Nice call my man!!
A huge shout out to Kenny. We met up after the races for a great meal (and myself and JohnnyPutz might have had 1 too many drinks as well!). As the bill arrives, Kenny had already arranged to cover the bill minutes after we walked in the door.
I'll always have a box for the Million and a ticket with your name on it. Hoping to witness history in a few short weeks.