Who will take the lead in the Derby
cinfront
Senior Member
That is the question....
Carpe Diem, American Pharoh, Dortmund and Firing Line all have similar styles of racing. On or just behind the lead.
There's no Trinniburg, no Chitu,or a Vyjak. So how do you guys see it?
If the Big 4 go out and dual, around the track, they'll set things up for a Mid Pack Runner or Closer. Dancing Moon is the only horse that I saw improving and closing to one of The Big 4. Also Mubtaahij can take some dirt and make a big run for it in the stretch.....
Food for your thoughts.....
How do you see it?
Carpe Diem, American Pharoh, Dortmund and Firing Line all have similar styles of racing. On or just behind the lead.
There's no Trinniburg, no Chitu,or a Vyjak. So how do you guys see it?
If the Big 4 go out and dual, around the track, they'll set things up for a Mid Pack Runner or Closer. Dancing Moon is the only horse that I saw improving and closing to one of The Big 4. Also Mubtaahij can take some dirt and make a big run for it in the stretch.....
Food for your thoughts.....
How do you see it?
Comments
I just can't understand why so many people think DM is the top closer in the race, if there is a hot pace upfront that cooks all the front runners than International Star would be my top pick to pick up the pieces and if not him than my second choice for closer would be Far Right . Sure he was 8 lengths behind AP in his last but I don't think that's a knock on Far Rights ability to close I just think AP is that good ... My opinion is that if DM was closing on AP in the Arkansas Derby he would have finished at least 10 back ....
I am just going to bet one ticket. It's going to be a superfecta with AP on top and than spread as much as I can for around $300 ....
I lean to FB's pick of Ocho Ocho Ocho as the most likely pacesetter. Could even be AP, depending on how fast they're going (and i'd have to think it'll be moderately fast at the very least).
Agreed. I personally do not see Firing Line on the front. I feel like Stanford is the most likely candidate to go right to the front.
Ocho, Stanford and American Pharoh will be the pace setters. Knowing that, the near perfect trip would be sitting behind Stanford and American Pharoh. If I were a Trainer or Owner I would tell my Jock under no circumstances do I want my horse behind Ochoa because you will be shuffle back after sitting just behind the front runners.
Once Ocho starts to backup a hole opens up for the horse with the opportunity to make his move on American Pharoh. This could be Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Dortmund, Mubtaahij, Materiality or Upstart. Of course depending on who's sitting at that spot.
Once American Pharoh starts to pick it up, who ever is sitting behind him needs to stay with him cause the guys I mentioned will have to go wide to make their moves. Once Stanford starts to backup another window of opportunity opens for the horse following American Pharoh around the track.
The best shot at beating American Pharoh is the first window and not be behind Ocho under no circumstance.
This is where Danzig Moon, International Star, Frosted and even El Kabeir need to pick it up and weave their way thru the traffic, not get jammed up with the pretenders and will it be enough to get a piece of the pie?
It seam like I the Derby all figured out huh.... I don't think so....
This is just my scenario on how it will play out but we all know that there are to many variables. Horse buckles at the start, pinching, bumping for position. And I only pray that a horse doesn't go down. Antics and Horse washing out, the crowd noise and will the horse take to the track.
Food the thoughts guys.
Well enough said ..... for now. I got to get out and mow the lawn before it hits 89.
I'll post my Supers a little later.
AP / Mubtaahij. Mubtaahij will be in all 4 spots because of the X Factor.
AP / Mubtaahij /Dortmund / Carpe Diem. AP only use in Top 2 spots.
Mubtaahij / Dortmund / Carpe Diem / Danzig Moon / Firing Line. Removed International Star out of the 3rd and 4th spots and replaced with Danzig Moon. He's too slow.
Mubtaahij / Dortmund / Carpe Diem / Danzig Moon / Firing Line / Materiality / Frosted / Upstart / ( and Mike's ) El Kabier.
I believe this play comes to $142, if my math is correct, base on a $1 investment.
Well there you have it. Like I said for now. Things can change but only on the backend....
Let's see what you guys have for your Super strategies. It's always a good payout.
May The Horse Be With You.....
I agree you should only use AP in the top spots but I take it a step further ... Instead of using him only in the 1-2 spots. I am only using him in 1 spot .... If nothing bizarre happens the derby is just another paid workout. If the rider falls off or he just gets mugged coming out of the gate or whatever than it means something really crazy happened and he won't finish in the super at all, so I got him singled in the top spot on all my potential tickets , or more likely Just one ticket that I punch as many times as I can to stay around my $300 budget.
I strongly disagree on the UAE derby horse. You call him the X factor. I call him the no factor .... No UAE derby runner has ever finished in the super before and there are really good reasons for that ... Travel etc ... Add into the mix that the field he beat was weaker than usual for the UAE derby and I see no reason to believe that he's going to be the Dubai horse to finally hit the board , also factor in this derby field is deeper than usual. Not a good combination for him. I know he looked impressive winning but most the UAE winners look good doing it. I have seen many 6250 claiming races where one horse is a standout and looks like Secretariat winning the race but it doesn't mean I think he's ready to win the Kentucky Derby. Putting all your eggs in that basket and using him on all your tickets seems like a bad idea to me ...
Leaving out International Star and replacing with DM also seems like a bad idea. International Star has won all 3 of his prep races and amassed the most derby points of anybody. His top speed figure is in the ballpark with the other top horses, and it's improved with every race as the distances have got longer. He is a honest horse and has the right running style and he's not a grinder. He has a turn on foot .... DM has a claim to fame of clunking up behind Carpe Diem in his last and nothing really noteworthy before that and his top speed figure is lower than International Star, so I don't see the reasoning of leaving off one horse because he's too slow in your opinion and replacing him with a even slower less accomplished horse . Just makes no sense to me ....
I agree with you on Dortmund . He is a must use, and I am very high on Upatart. I currently have AP a clear 1 on my list with Dort and Upstart 2a and 2b ...
Materiality , Firing Line, Frosted, Carpe Diem, El Kabier all nice horses but ...
I think Materiality will bounce . Running such a big number last out with his lack of foundation spells bounce. Take note Johnny V did not choose him to ride ....
Firing Line seems like he would be a monster miler but probably does not want the derby diatance ...
I think the NY prep races were the weakest and probably made Frosted and El Kabier look better than they really are ....
I can't knock Caroe Diem other than to say he just didn't impress me the way he finished up in the Bluegrass, but I can't fault people for using him. I just don't have the best feeling about him but I'll still probably use in the 3-4 spots ...
I also think it's a mistake to leave off Far Right out of the 3-4 spots. If your looking for a horse to clunk up at a nice price and don't want to use International Star than I think he's a better option than DM. He won a couple prep races with a nice late kick before getting drilled by AP but he still beat everyone else in the race and no shame in my opinion to being no match for AP.
Anyways good luck ....
Horses that look like Secretariat in a $6000 Claiming Races. LOL In my P3's if a $6000. race falls in any of the legs, it's an all race. Anybody can win that shit. They'er not consistent runners.
You are playing International Star, who beats the same horses in his 3 preps. Its not his fault the field comes up that way. He just barely beat, as you stated, Stanford " CHEAP SPEED". You'll be playing him and I won't. It's that simple.
Now, what do your Supers will be looking like?