Kentucky Derby Ticket
SkyMaster7
Banned
Ok I already have my Kentucky Derby ticket narrowed down to 3 options. My budget is around $300 and I plan on betting one ticket and punching it as many times as possible.
Option 1 - Going Ice Cold exacta as Dave Weaver would say.
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
Punch it 300 times for a $1
Option 2 - Trifecta
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
3rd - Firing Line, International Star, Far Right
Punch it 100 times for a $1
Option 3 - Superfecta
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
3rd - Firing Line, International Star, Far Right
4th - ALL
Punch it 6 times for a $1
Just crunching the numbers to see which one makes more sense from a financial standpoint.
Option 1 - Going Ice Cold exacta as Dave Weaver would say.
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
Punch it 300 times for a $1
Option 2 - Trifecta
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
3rd - Firing Line, International Star, Far Right
Punch it 100 times for a $1
Option 3 - Superfecta
1st - AP
2nd - Dortmund
3rd - Firing Line, International Star, Far Right
4th - ALL
Punch it 6 times for a $1
Just crunching the numbers to see which one makes more sense from a financial standpoint.
Comments
Does anybody have any thoughts on what they think a AP/Dortmund exacta might pay ?
Avg exacta payouts over the last 14 years over 300 dollars
I do like International Star a lot , and in my opinion he is actually the biggest threat to beat out Dortmund, and ruin my ice cold exacta, so playing a AP/International Star exacta as some insurance is worth some thought.
I also really like Stellar Wind in the Oaks, so it might also be worth it to analyze some past Derby/Oaks payouts ...
Of the rest of the horses in the field after AP, Dortmund is in my opinion the most talented and has the most tenacious running style and he wants the distance. He draws a perfect post. I know there could be some bumping breaking from that spot but he is a huge horse so I am guessing the other guy is going to get the worse of it if it happens , and look at Dortmunds three chief rivals according to most people .... Carpe Diem and Materiality both drew really bad posts and Firing Line drew good but if Firing Line couldn't beat him twice before at shorter distances because he started to weaken than why shouldn't anybody think he's suddenly going to turn the tables on him at a longer distance ...
Honestly the thing that worries me most in Dortmund not finishing second would be if there was just a really hot pace with the horses chasing Dortmund and therefore setting it up for a closer to complete the exacta in that case I think you have to look at International Star and Far Right who are clearly the best late runners in the race in my opinion....
The X factor is Upstart. I had him tied with Dortmund as my second choice before the PP draw. I really hate that he drew 19, but this horse looked awesome in the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull , and his trainer made it clear before the Florida Derby that he was not fully cranked for the Florida Derby and they were trying to save
his best race for the Kentucky Derby, if that horse moves forward he could also complete the exacta. I can envision a scenario where Upstart just tracks AP every move and follows him around the track to finish second.
Decisions decisions decisions lol ... I love this time of year
I meant to say if there was a hot pace with the horses following AP than it could set it up for a closer ...
Looking for a possible big payout I'll throw in Danzig Moon, with those 2, in another box. Danzig Moon, the improving Horse, will be up there in The odds as well.
All my other investments will be in the tri. and supers.
I am obviously 100% with you on the AP part, but Muubtahij and DM are two horses I am taking a strong stand against .
DM - Yeah I understand his last race was a improvement, but just about all these horses are on the improve or were already running at such a high level there just was not any room left to make a big performance jump ecspecially if they were trying to save their best for the derby. Plus the signature race for DM is a plodding second behind a dialed down Carpe Diem. I just don't see how you go from that race to beating the likes of AP, Dort, Upstart, Firing Line, Materiality and not to mention Carpe Diem the horse that just drilled him.
Muubtahij - The horse travels around the world after beating a allowance quality field to take on the likes of AP and Dortmund ? That horse is going to have to prove me wrong ....
People talk about how visually impressive he was winning the UAE derby , but as I said in another post. You can take a solid 12,500 claiming horse and drop him into a weak 6,250 claiming race and he is probably going to look like Secretariat , but that doesn't mean he is ready to win the Kentucky Derby.
Anything is possible , so I guess there is always the chance he could pull a Mine that Bird and win, but so could Keen Ice and I won't be using him either, if he beats me than he beats me, but I just can't justify including him on any ticket unless you are just hitting the ALL button.
The problem i'm having is that i feel AP will be pretty seriously over-bet, primarily in the exacta with Dortmund, whom i like quite a bit. My opinion is that the best way to get some value out of AP winning the race would be to key him on top of exotics with some of the horses who i think will be very much under-valued, such as Firing Line, Mubtaahij, and possibly Upstart. Then spread most of the field behind them in third, and then reverse it, going AP/Spread/Value horses in third. So if AP wins the race, and of the nice value horses runs second or third, we should have a nice ticket. I guess you've gotta throw Dortmund into that value-group as well, simply because you can't really leave him out. I don't really see much point in using AP in the second or third spots. If he loses, the ticket loses....i'm not looking to overspend by hedging on the chalk.
I'll also try and get alive to him via (and possibly Mubtaahjj, whom i'm definitely looking to do something with) in the Oaks/Derby double.
races when he got edged out by Dortmund. He also really liked his Sunland Derby performance and says people are dismissing his impressive win because of the quality of the field he faced, but he is quick to point out Firing Line set a track record in the race. He has been at Churchill for the past week and says that the word around the track is that Firing Line is really turning people's heads, so I can fault you for using him, and Upstart is my third ranked horse in the race behind AP and Dortmund so no arguement there either.
I really don't like Muubtahij at all but I won't bore people and get in my soapbox about that again lol.
You need some homeboys. You've written more in 3 days than I have in my life.
DC me and you gonna have the same tri. I'll be heavier on Firing Line, but I know you be having the future...
I think Firing Line is unquestionably the best value in the race. I essentially have him ranked as a co-second choice with Dortmund, but he'll be triple (or quadruple) Dortmund's price. I also think he got a little bit better draw than Dortmund, and i'm quite happy about the scratch of Stanford, who figured to get gunned early from Firing Line's immediate outside. Now, the next speed horse to FL's outside is American Pharaoh, who is way out in the 17-hole (moving in a spot after the scratch). So theoretically, FL should have some space to work with early, if he breaks okay.
I am a touch concerned that Firing Line reared up in the gate @ Sunland shortly before the start, and didn't break particularly well, though he certainly had no problem thereafter. He might get a little antsy in the Derby starting gate. Hoping he's one of the last to load.
with the caption "BANG!"