Preakness
Horsin~Aro
Senior Member
Going a little long hoping these is some blazing speed up front
8,7 4 with 8,7,4,1,2
Exacta Box and Tri
8,7 4 with 8,7,4,1,2
Exacta Box and Tri
Comments
Really think AP got kinda screwed by the post-draw (unlike in the Derby, where he drew extremely well). With AP breaking from the rail, and Dortmund (plus Mr. Z) sitting to his immediate outside, i think there's a pretty decent chance he'll be pushed into faster-than-optimal fractions, which should set it up for Firing Line to pounce on the both of them turning for home.
The other potential scenarios i see are:
(a) Baffert instructs Martin Garcia (aboard Dortmund) to lay off AP early, thus making it easier for AP to wire the field. Even if this happens though, Mr. Z can (hopefully) stil press him early, and even worst-case, Firing Line can move up on his flank, much like he's did vs. Dortmund in the Bob Lewis and the Kentucky Derby. So still not a terrible thing for FL.
(b) AP takes back early and tries to swing to Dortmund/Mr. Z's outside. Could happen, might even work, but easier said than done. Runs the risk of getting boxed in a little bit by Firing Line (or whomever), and that's still not something that AP has ever had to deal with. Probably not where Baffert wants to go, i'm guessing.
Hard to see a scenario where FL doesn't get at least a decent trip, and he might get a perfect one (stalking an AP/Dortmund duel). All this at triple (or quadruple) AP's price. Go Firing Line!
My Money starts in the 4th...
R4) #6 'Woodwin' W&P.Mr.Ness,he's 4-4 at Pimlico the last 2 days including a 13-1 winner.Today hes 6-1 on what looks like the best Pony in the race?
R5) #2 'Coup De Race' W&P.Returns to the races in the perfect spot here.Has been firing bullets and runs into a field loaded with speed and I look for this one to make one powerful run late here at a solid 3-1.
R7) #6 'Donworth' W&P.This guy has been heavily favored on both of his career starts and today will be no different. I would luv for him to sit off a ton of speed and get his 1st graded win, with a huge future in front of him.
R8) #2 'Soup De Coup',ATB. Todays 1st big price play.This one had a nice closing 4th in his 1st off a long layoff and he dosen't have to improve much to crash the tri at 15-1.Worth a shot in a rather wide open race.
R9) #1 'Bocaluva'. ATB.This one could not have had a worse trip in his last,or on a worse course.This race was a 10 horse photo and he was stuck behind a wall of horses. He's getting 1st lasix here and I'm looking for a much improved effort and I would luv to get the 8-1 price here.
R10) #7 'Gimmedalute'..W&P He tried stretching out in last and ran into Mr.Pletchers fresh monster in 'Competitive Edge'. Today he cuts back to his preferred distance and wheels back in 2 weeks. I look for him to sit just off and pounce at 2-1.
R11) #2 'Ageless'.W&P.She comes in here 2nd off layoff after running a game 2nd on a very soggy track at Keenland.She is 1-1 at Pimlico, and won this same race last year. I look for her to sit just off and to make the same run to get there in time.
R12.) #2 'Ironicus'. ATB.This is my bomb of the day right here.This Pony to me is rapidly improving. Castellano retains the mount,and I can not resist this one at 20-1 to come flying late in what could be the most wide open race of the day. Otherwise 'War Correspondent' would be your most logical winner,but dislike his post.
R13) #2 'DORTMUND'.W&P .I don't need to explain why I luv this guy. I luv'd him in his last,tho he picked the wrong race to regress. Most will say he can't get the distance, but when you do the math he ran 1/16th further in his last and only lost 3 lengths. Add in the fact he ran the slowest fractions he had in all his starts this year. I expect him to bounce back BIG here and make A.P. work hard for his 3rd win in 5 weeks.Weather you guys/girls like him or not I'm stickin' with him and going down swinging with him!
*Gotta throw 40$ Show on 'Divining Rod'.
"May The Horse be With You"!
I just cannot invision the slower pace allowed in the Derby.
Small problem I've realized on this site, when two people pick the same longshot on here, expect your odds to be cut in half!! I'm also on this one as my longshot of the day.
r7 - Donworth
r12 - ironicus
r13 - Firing Line
FL,War correspondent is scratched,which gives Ironicus a better chance.