Kentucky Derby futures

DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
edited April 2016 in Horse Racing Forum
Here's the latest Derby sheet from the Wynn:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2016_Derby-Wynn_9-21.pdf


Note, we're still in September of the previous year, and they're already listing horses as low as 25/1 to win the Derby (Sail Ahoy). Nyquist is listed at only 35/1, but undoubtedly has seen his price cut after winning today. These may be some of the worst prices i've seen in all my years of living in Vegas.

If you're gonna take a shot with something, how about Arabian Leopard @ 225/1?

Very highly-regarded Baffert colt who lost his debut (ring a bell?), and recently worked a strong 7 furlongs heads-up with a 2yo barnmate who just ran second in a two-turn stakes race. Also worth noting, Baffert tends to work his best horses 7 furlongs (generally right before a race), so just the fact that he worked 7 at all is a positive sign here. Should be making his second start any time now, perhaps even leading to a start in the BC Juvenile next month.

Comments

  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited September 2015
    Right horse for now DC. Esp. the 7 furlong note. Still think 200-1 is short though.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited September 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Still think 200-1 is short though.

    Lol, probably so. You can still win a large number for chump change though.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Here's the latest Derby sheet from the Wynn:

    http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2016_Derby-Wynn_9-21.pdf


    Note, we're still in September of the previous year, and they're already listing horses as low as 25/1 to win the Derby (Sail Ahoy). Nyquist is listed at only 35/1, but undoubtedly has seen his price cut after winning today. These may be some of the worst prices i've seen in all my years of living in Vegas.

    If you're gonna take a shot with something, how about Arabian Leopard @ 225/1?

    Very highly-regarded Baffert colt who lost his debut (ring a bell?), and recently worked a strong 7 furlongs heads-up with a 2yo barnmate who just ran second in a two-turn stakes race. Also worth noting, Baffert tends to work his best horses 7 furlongs (generally right before a race), so just the fact that he worked 7 at all is a positive sign here. Should be making his second start any time now, perhaps even leading to a start in the BC Juvenile next month.



    get him before he crushes tomorrow....
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    Yeah, Arabian Leopard is entered tomorrow. Note also that Martin Garcia is getting off the 2/1 ml favorite (also a Baffert trainee) in order to stay with Arabian Leopard. Good sign there.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Hope you guys are right, live to huge double to him now!!
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I was playing golf.. how crippled is he?
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    I didn't see where he had any excuse at all. He just looked flat as a pancake. Seems like he's probably just a morning glory.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Almost got out on this POS, but stormy Lucy ruined crushed my pick 4.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited December 2015
    If you're gonna take a shot with something, how about Arabian Leopard @ 225/1?

    Forgot to mention the other day, Arabian Leopard finally won a race. Hopefully he's starting to figure things out.

    Here's the replay:

    http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/DMR/2015/11/29/7/race-7-msw-at-dmr-on-11-29-15
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    My father was in Vegas and was denied $100 futures on esky and scat daddy both at 30-1. Offered 20-1 or $20. Somehow got boondoggled into $20 of 20-1 on esky. But I haven't seen the ticket and he's often unclear.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Forgot to mention the other day, Arabian Leopard finally won a race. Hopefully he's starting to figure things out.

    Here's the replay:

    http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/DMR/2015/11/29/7/race-7-msw-at-dmr-on-11-29-15

    God he looked amazing today. Zero deep closers all weekend and he was flying from way back. Really nice sort imo
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited January 2016
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    My father was in Vegas and was denied $100 futures on esky and scat daddy both at 30-1. Offered 20-1 or $20. Somehow got boondoggled into $20 of 20-1 on esky. But I haven't seen the ticket and he's often unclear.

    That's pretty amazing. So it's only 30/1 until someone wants to bet it?
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    That's pretty amazing. So it's only 30/1 until someone wants to bet it?

    I mean, I would have argued my way into 30-1, that's not even value.... But he doesn't get any of that, just wants action.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited January 2016
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    I mean, I would have argued my way into 30-1, that's not even value.... But he doesn't get any of that, just wants action.

    Yeah, it's amazing they'd even give him a hard time about it. They should just smile and take the money.

    FWIW, i did notice they had a "Sires" future this year, but i had zero interest in it. The only thing it'll be good for is keeping it mind as a possible alternative to whatever individual horse you might be interested in (likely in the last couple of months before the Derby). You might get get additional runners for essentially the same price. Or even a better price, if they happen to fall asleep on something. Most likely it'll stay low-balled throughout the entire Derby Trail however (just like 95+% of the individual horses).
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Yeah, it's amazing they'd even give him a hard time about it. They should just smile and take the money.

    FWIW, i did notice they had a "Sires" future this year, but i had zero interest in it. The only thing it'll be good for is keeping it mind as a possible alternative to whatever individual horse you might be interested in (likely in the last couple of months before the Derby). You might get get additional runners for essentially the same price. Or even a better price, if they happen to fall asleep on something. Most likely it'll stay low-balled throughout the entire Derby Trail however (just like 95+% of the individual horses).

    Yeah, that's what bet I gave him. Told him bet the sires of Mor Spirit and The Leopard (who just might be a turf monster.)
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I don't think a City Zip can win the Derby, but you have to get Collected before he wins the Sham tomorrow. Heard a rumor Baffert loves this one, but I was always a little suspect of his race pattern.
    Well, Andy says he looks flat out amazing... Trashing some decent horses in the AM.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    COLLECTED Jan 3 SA 6 1:12.2H M FT A-
    Another sharp drill for Baffert tracking and drawing far clear from Let's Meet In Rio and Silentio (who broke behind the Baffert trainees on the backside). Has really improved a ton lately. Went a full 7f in 36.3, 113.1, 125.1. Going great.---Grade: A-
    COLLECTED Dec 28 SA 6 1:12H M FT A-
    Garcia up; motored away from barnmate Coach Q rolling home with power while going a full 7f in 37.1, 112.3, 124.2. Has really stepped up his game this month.---Grade: A-


    Looks good from here.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    I don't think a City Zip can win the Derby, but you have to get Collected before he wins the Sham tomorrow. Heard a rumor Baffert loves this one, but I was always a little suspect of his race pattern.
    Well, Andy says he looks flat out amazing... Trashing some decent horses in the AM.

    Connex and Andy both spot on...
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Yeah, that's what bet I gave him. Told him bet the sires of Mor Spirit and The Leopard (who just might be a turf monster.)

    Mor spirit worked this AM with g. Stevens up. Grenaded work mate.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Nice call on Collected. Looks like he was listed @ 250/1 on the Wynn sheet that's dated January 4th, but no updates since then.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Looked like Arabian Leopard pulled up lame the other day. Stick a fork in him.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Looked like Arabian Leopard pulled up lame the other day. Stick a fork in him.


    He's actually dead DC. They did stick said fork in him. Was a turf monster, I saw him in the paddock the day he died and I was like holy shit. Interestingly, the racing form on the day he died noted he missed some training with a foot or foreleg issue...
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    I don't think a City Zip can win the Derby, but you have to get Collected before he wins the Sham tomorrow. Heard a rumor Baffert loves this one, but I was always a little suspect of his race pattern.
    Well, Andy says he looks flat out amazing... Trashing some decent horses in the AM.

    Collected lookie like a racehorse today. Very Preakness-y animal.
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