I quit

dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
edited November 2015 in Horse Racing Forum
If you guy read the math behind the DFS shit and you still play, you are close to retarded.


Here's a simple fact, the more complicated ones are even worse, but this is easy to understand:

“the top 100 ranked players enter 330 winning lineups per day, and the top 10 players combine to win an average of 873 times daily. The remaining field of approximately 20,000 players tracked by Rotogrinders wins just 13 times per day, on average"


I would assume the 330 is per player in the top 100, but yeah, it's statistical genius types winning everything....
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Comments

  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Also, I'm pretty sure ISIS is a way bigger deal than we're acting like in America. Seriously thank god for the fucking ocean.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Also if you bet PA racing, stop.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    If you guy read the math behind the DFS shit and you still play, you are close to retarded.


    Here's a simple fact, the more complicated ones are even worse, but this is easy to understand:

    “the top 100 ranked players enter 330 winning lineups per day, and the top 10 players combine to win an average of 873 times daily. The remaining field of approximately 20,000 players tracked by Rotogrinders wins just 13 times per day, on average"


    I would assume the 330 is per player in the top 100, but yeah, it's statistical genius types winning everything....



    I told my buddies, it's a waste of time and money. Also the behind the scene's shit that goes on as well. Whenever something blows up like this in 3 years it's unreal. it's blown up bigger and quicker than the poker craze. I've been playing FFL for over 20+ years and our leagues still around. The GOV. is about to clamp the DFL in a big way in a year or two. When then type of money is being generated weekly there will always be some BULLSHIT behind the scenes.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    How bad is Julien Leparoux? Another guy who wouldn't stand a chance if he was a mexican.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Do you mean "THE STRANGLER"

    Really, you could have back-keyed in every race for the past year, especially when he is on a live mount, and watch him take back, way back, then commence a run a 1/4 out only to finish 2nd or 3rd.

    It's easy money!
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Just goes to show, as soon as I posted the above comment Julian gets his shit together and wins the 3rd at Keeneland! I was on the 2nd, WINKATDEWAT, who showed some courage but just couldn't last. He was owned by my friends the Gesslers from Arkansas but got claimed by Ingrid Mason, who while somewhat cute, still has a lot to learn about the claiming game!
  • MikenyceMikenyce Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Yeah and he stayed for 2nd in the 7th to screw me
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    miss temple city @ 8-1 with 5 mtp is crazy...DVD in to ride and 1st time lasix..
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    got robbed....at 9-1..
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Our homeboy Talco died.... sucks.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    i fucking hate talamo. i hope his next mount jumps the rail and runs onto colorado boulevard and gets hit by a fucking truck.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    i fucking hate talamo. i hope his next mount jumps the rail and runs onto colorado boulevard and gets hit by a fucking truck.

    I think he's old enough for the China man to pop him in the face for that shit.... he might.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Our homeboy Talco died.... sucks.

    Just seems like a few weeks ago he was winning Shoemaker Mile. It's been a tough few days for the ponies. Nobody is offering up many details about Talco's demise. Must have been a bad scene after surgery?

    I refuse to dis Talamo any more! I pulled that today on Leparoux and he kills me and Mike on the exotic in the 7th at Keeneland!
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I just read it on bloodhorse and they said he died in surgery but then in the article it says he died in the recovery...rough weekend in racing..sad.
  • risky101risky101 Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    He was beconing a nice little turf horse here in cali...
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    I largely disagree about the DFS thing. Obviously there are sharks in the waters, but they represent a relatively small fraction of the overall player pool. Sure, they mass-enter the contests (even down to the lower levels), so you'll likely be facing several of them in nearly any contest you enter, but it's not hard for any knowledgeable player to finish in the top 50% of contests on a consistent basis.

    As for the recent "scandal" involving employees with knowledge of player ownership percentages playing (and winning) on rival sites, i think it's largely overblown. Obviously it's preferable to have low % guys (who figure to perform well) in your lineup. Anyone with a brain knows this. Which is exactly the point. And even if you don't know exact percentages (because you're not a site employee with access to that info), you still know which guys are going to be widely-owned, and which guys won't be. You also know which guys are likely to fall somewhere in the middle.

    As for the info being valuable, of course it is. Particularly so in mass-entry tournaments (where it's a virtual necessity to go against the grain, in order to boost your chances of garnering a top prize). You can't finish first in a 200,000 player field if the majority of your lineup is widely-owned. But you STILL need to pick the right players (duh). Simply knowing which guys are sparsely owned isn't nearly enough to get you over the hump. It's essentially just a push in the right direction.

    As for the well-bankrolled guys flooding the tournaments with mass entries, yes, they certainly do it. And those guys do often end up taking down the big prizes. But that's not cheating. There's nothing preventing anyone else from doing the exact same thing (aside from money, or just a willingness to make that kind of investment).

    This isn't like a scandal at one of the online poker sites, where a "super user" can see an opponent's hole cards, or a customer's money isn't available for withdrawal. It's pretty fucking far from that.

    Is it right for employees to use inside info in making their own lineup decisions? Of course not. No one is disputing that. And it needs to be corrected. But it's not something that should have the New York Attorney General launching an official inquiry, either (which, incidentally, is what eventually resulted in the poker sites being shut down).

    FWIW, the anti-fantasy sports argument has gotten shot down in court before, and that was PRIOR to it gaining wide acceptance from the major sports leagues. In this case, the major sports leagues are actual PARTNERS with the fantasy sports sites. So I very much doubt that anything will cone of this. The only real difference between then-and-now (aside from the backing of the leagues themselves, and major companies like Disney) is the Daily angle.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    I largely disagree about the DFS thing. Obviously there are sharks in the waters, but they represent a relatively small fraction of the overall player pool. Sure, they mass-enter the contests (even down to the lower levels), so you'll likely be facing several of them in nearly any contest you enter, but it's not hard for any knowledgeable player to finish in the top 50% of contests on a consistent basis.

    As for the recent "scandal" involving employees with knowledge of player ownership percentages playing (and winning) on rival sites, i think it's largely overblown. Obviously it's preferable to have low % guys (who figure to perform well) in your lineup. Anyone with a brain knows this. Which is exactly the point. And even if you don't know exact percentages (because you're not a site employee with access to that info), you still know which guys are going to be widely-owned, and which guys won't be. You also know which guys are likely to fall somewhere in the middle.

    As for the info being valuable, of course it is. Particularly so in mass-entry tournaments (where it's a virtual necessity to go against the grain, in order to boost your chances of garnering a top prize). You can't finish first in a 200,000 player field if the majority of your lineup is widely-owned. But you STILL need to pick the right players (duh). Simply knowing which guys are sparsely owned isn't nearly enough to get you over the hump. It's essentially just a push in the right direction.

    As for the well-bankrolled guys flooding the tournaments with mass entries, yes, they certainly do it. And those guys do often end up taking down the big prizes. But that's not cheating. There's nothing preventing anyone else from doing the exact same thing (aside from money, or just a willingness to make that kind of investment).

    This isn't like a scandal at one of the online poker sites, where a "super user" can see an opponent's hole cards, or a customer's money isn't available for withdrawal. It's pretty fucking far from that.

    Is it right for employees to use inside info in making their own lineup decisions? Of course not. No one is disputing that. And it needs to be corrected. But it's not something that should have the New York Attorney General launching an official inquiry, either (which, incidentally, is what eventually resulted in the poker sites being shut down).

    FWIW, the anti-fantasy sports argument has gotten shot down in court before, and that was PRIOR to it gaining wide acceptance from the major sports leagues. In this case, the major sports leagues are actual PARTNERS with the fantasy sports sites. So I very much doubt that anything will cone of this. The only real difference between then-and-now (aside from the backing of the leagues themselves, and major companies like Disney) is the Daily angle.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Does being able to finish consistently in the top 50% make playing double ups +ev for you? If it does, fire away.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I just walked in the door and Lava Man's 3rd Hollywood Gold Cup. I'm not sure I've ever seen the China man so happy when they crossed the line. Helluva ride.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    You playing this week DC?
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Also, I'm pretty sure ISIS is a way bigger deal than we're acting like in America. Seriously thank god for the fucking ocean.

    Certainly not the "jv team." Really sad.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    DFS gonna be a fight in NY...
  • MakersMakers Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    I largely disagree about the DFS thing. Obviously there are sharks in the waters, but they represent a relatively small fraction of the overall player pool. Sure, they mass-enter the contests (even down to the lower levels), so you'll likely be facing several of them in nearly any contest you enter, but it's not hard for any knowledgeable player to finish in the top 50% of contests on a consistent basis.

    As for the recent "scandal" involving employees with knowledge of player ownership percentages playing (and winning) on rival sites, i think it's largely overblown. Obviously it's preferable to have low % guys (who figure to perform well) in your lineup. Anyone with a brain knows this. Which is exactly the point. And even if you don't know exact percentages (because you're not a site employee with access to that info), you still know which guys are going to be widely-owned, and which guys won't be. You also know which guys are likely to fall somewhere in the middle.

    As for the info being valuable, of course it is. Particularly so in mass-entry tournaments (where it's a virtual necessity to go against the grain, in order to boost your chances of garnering a top prize). You can't finish first in a 200,000 player field if the majority of your lineup is widely-owned. But you STILL need to pick the right players (duh). Simply knowing which guys are sparsely owned isn't nearly enough to get you over the hump. It's essentially just a push in the right direction.

    As for the well-bankrolled guys flooding the tournaments with mass entries, yes, they certainly do it. And those guys do often end up taking down the big prizes. But that's not cheating. There's nothing preventing anyone else from doing the exact same thing (aside from money, or just a willingness to make that kind of investment).

    This isn't like a scandal at one of the online poker sites, where a "super user" can see an opponent's hole cards, or a customer's money isn't available for withdrawal. It's pretty fucking far from that.

    Is it right for employees to use inside info in making their own lineup decisions? Of course not. No one is disputing that. And it needs to be corrected. But it's not something that should have the New York Attorney General launching an official inquiry, either (which, incidentally, is what eventually resulted in the poker sites being shut down).

    FWIW, the anti-fantasy sports argument has gotten shot down in court before, and that was PRIOR to it gaining wide acceptance from the major sports leagues. In this case, the major sports leagues are actual PARTNERS with the fantasy sports sites. So I very much doubt that anything will cone of this. The only real difference between then-and-now (aside from the backing of the leagues themselves, and major companies like Disney) is the Daily angle.

    Wells said!!!
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2015
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    DFS gonna be a fight in NY...

    I believe that DraftKings and/or FanDuel filed for an injunction in New York, so players in that state are still allowed to play, at least until a judge rules on the case.

    New York was just too important for those companies for them to back down without a fight, so yeah, you're 100% right on that.


    PS - I believe it has also come out that the State Attorney General who banned DFS in New York has been getting campaign contributions from casino companies, so it appears that may be connected.
  • MakersMakers Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    FanDuel no longer taking deposits from NY
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Aaron Rodgers is a limp wristed fruitcake.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2015
  • MakersMakers Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Have to give the New York Pol's credit...They have a history of recognizing problems and providing a solution.. :)

    New York v. Fantasy Football


    As noted below New York once again demonstrates leadership insuring personal freedom tampered with a bit (sic) of intervention makes for a better society.


    ***New York wants to bring public urination out of the shadows The speaker of the New York City Council is pushing a bill to, among other things, decriminalize urinating in public


    ***The state of New York, disallows anyone to piss on a bird of any kind. Bird Pissing as it has come to be known came about as a result of a few individual getting fed up with pigeons urinating on their heads in Central Park.


    ***New York state lawmakers have passed a bill banning residents from taking “tiger selfies” on dating websites in which single men post photos of themselves posing with the ferocious felines in hopes of impressing potential mates.


    However.......
    “They can still pose with bears and monkeys,” the assemblywoman said. “They just have to take big cats off their list.”
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