Breeders Cup Picks

2

Comments

  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Sprint - Runhappy

    Juvenile Fillies - Tap To It (prefer Songbird, but the value lies here. also think she's the most likely to improve stretching out)

    F&M Turf - Legatissimo

    Turf - Golden Horn (most likely winner on the card, I think)

    Some interest in Hit It A Bomb as well. Comes well regarded from the top Euro outfit and may be a tad undervalued in the American betting pool.

    Mild interest in Masochistic (Sprint) and Gleneagles (Classic)

    Note: I think this year's Juvenile is the weakest I've seen since I started betting horses over 20 years ago. They seem light years behind the Juvenile Fillies field. Wish I could find a prop on the fillies running faster than the colts.

    D.C.,I think Tap to It will improve with the two turns,and I most certainly agree there's no pot of gold with Songbird. Imho,the dark HORSE in that race is Land over Sea.As far as Gleneagles his connections would have been smarter to point him to The Mile? A.O'B.
    is jazzin' for a Classic win,and although that's where they originally pointed him,I think they knew Gleneagles wanted no part of 10 Panels.
    Goodnight all.
    T.G.
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    TurferGirl wrote: »
    D.C.,I think Tap to It will improve with the two turns,and I most certainly agree there's no pot of gold with Songbird. Imho,the dark HORSE in that race is Land over Sea.As far as Gleneagles his connections would have been smarter to point him to The Mile? A.O'B.
    is jazzin' for a Classic win,and although that's where they originally pointed him,I think they knew Gleneagles wanted no part of 10 Panels.
    Goodnight all.
    T.G.

    *Edit: I was under the misconception that Gleneagles was NOT running in the Classic. But after catching up this morning I read that he is,but I stand by my opinion that although a really good HORSE,and a wonderful training job,I don't feel he can get 10 panels.But this should be an exciting Classic.
    Hope all of you have a prosperous Day.

    T.G.
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Sprint,Runhappy #5,Private Zone #13.
    Was hoping he drew a little closer to the rail but #5 is close enough.
  • MikenyceMikenyce Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Dirt MIle:

    Wicked Strong
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    TurferGirl wrote: »
    Sprint,Runhappy #5,Private Zone #13.
    Was hoping he drew a little closer to the rail but #5 is close enough.

    A.P.#4-6/5,Beholder#10-3/1
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Pls don't tell me she is a 8 dollar horse...I'm speechless..
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    rayphil wrote: »
    Pls don't tell me she is a 8 dollar horse...I'm speechless..

    Good one R.P.! And I guess the odds makers agrees with me, Gleneagles at 20/1 Smooth Roller at 15/1?!
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Untapable out of Distaff,fever.Peace & War in.
  • kingoftherapidkingoftherapid Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    good friends with Maria Borell, trainer of runhappy. We have run around a few times when i have been in lexington. what a success story she is. i promise you 2 years ago, she was barely making it. she was working at a small farm and i think she had like one mare. i went and picked her up from the farm and i really didnt know how she was making it money wise. and boom. runhappy gets taken away from his trainer and jmac gives her a shot and bam. i would love to post a couple of pictures on here if i knew how. maria is very very very confident, but as im sure any of us would be very nervous. this is literally like her only horse and she is in the worlds fastest race with who i consider the favorite. his works over the strip the last week have been nothing short of unbelievable.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    That's fucking awesome. She seems pretty cool. Although, going doggy style might be tough. I'm not sure I could maintain an erection looking at Seattle slew, or whatever she has tatted on her back.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I listened to Randy Moss webinar today from DRF. Randy is a pace race figures guy, but he has made a pretty good living going to the windows! I left my notes at the office, but this is what I remember---mostly chalk!

    Friday

    Distaff--Randy thinks the sct of Untap will work in favor of Wedding Toast. Sounds like he is big on this one and he likes a long price ex key with Wedding toast over #5 Calamity Kate, 30-1, and #10 Yahilwa, 20-1

    Juv fillies turf---not much interest, but he likes Mott'e #8 Harmonize, 7/2

    Dirt Mile---no need to say more---loves #3 Liam's Map--he thinks 3/5 will be ml at post.


    Saturday

    Turf---loves #1 Golden Horn--3/5 again

    Mile---he loves #3 Make Believe, 3-1, and a ex bx with price horses, #6 Tourist, 15-1, and #7 Tepin, 12-1

    Sprint---dead lock for Randy---#6 Runhappy, 3-1

    Filly & Mare sprint---Randy is spreading out in this race, but he favors #14 Cavorting, 3-1, notwithstanding the outside draw. Sounds like he is keying Cavorting over #3 Taris, 12-1, #5 Artemis Agrot, 20-1, and #8 Stonetastic, 5-1

    Juv Fillies---one and only Songbird---talks like she should be a single in all horizontal plays.

    Going to be Great!!!

    Hey King, I think if I can get away, I'll head over to Oaklawn for the show! Let me know if you are going to be in town/at track?
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Just a heads up for Big Macher fans, that last work on Oct. 24 might of been fast in #'s, but was very unappealing to many on the back stretch. They think this race is way above his head and might drown in the deep water. Just an FYI!! My info in piling in as of now. I will have both days posted on the site. I hope all CRUSH the CUP!!

    #CashingTickets
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Also a little bird told me Swipe in coming into this race very similar to Texas Red for Keith. His last work was much better than the time shows. If he gets the pace, he will be moving like a freight train down the lane, 15-1 ML and Victor in the irons is very nice. Also make note Victor was up for that last work as well. Clean trip down the lane!
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    fbwinners wrote: »
    Also a little bird told me Swipe in coming into this race very similar to Texas Red for Keith. His last work was much better than the time shows. If he gets the pace, he will be moving like a freight train down the lane, 15-1 ML and Victor in the irons is very nice. Also make note Victor was up for that last work as well. Clean trip down the lane!

    Nothing in that race would shock me. I believe it's the worst Juvenile Colts field i've ever seen.


    Btw, does anyone like Gliding By in the JuvFillies Turf? I haven't looked at the replay yet, but it sems like she did a helluva job for a first-time starter going long. Certainly a well-bred sort, and appears to be a private purchase for the Mott barn (something i'm not sure i've ever seen before, at least from North America).
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited October 2015
    Btw, does anyone like Gliding By in the JuvFillies Turf? I haven't looked at the replay yet, but it sems like she did a helluva job for a first-time starter going long. Certainly a well-bred sort, and appears to be a private purchase for the Mott barn (something i'm not sure i've ever seen before, at least from North America).

    Here it is. She's in the black silks on the outside:

    http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/CAN/WO/2015/9/25/4/race-4-msw-at-wo-on-9-25-15


    Btw, on that private purchase, it looks like a majority interest in Gliding By was indeed sold after that race. The original owner (Greenwood Lodge Farm) did retain a piece though.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Here it is. She's in the black silks on the outside:

    http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/CAN/WO/2015/9/25/4/race-4-msw-at-wo-on-9-25-15


    Btw, on that private purchase, it looks like a majority interest in Gliding By was indeed sold after that race. The original owner (Greenwood Lodge Farm) did retain a piece though.

    DC thanks. This one looks live. I'm pretty sure
    Mott had a few nice private purchases last year, one we were on here at HRT, the name slips me...




    Very upset about beholder. I was gonna use her pretty heavy.
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    She broke my heart again...
  • cinfrontcinfront Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    DC, I got THE Racing Form today. Just finished looking at that race and was on Harmonize and Illuminate, till I got to Gliding By.....
    1st she's Sired by Artie Schiller out of El Prado.
    2nd the Dam is out of Arch.....
    3rd she ran a super first time out. Without Lasix.
    4th and a Key Angle for me is she gets the drugs today.
    5th my Turf Jocky Lezcano gets the call.
    At 30-1 man I'm liking her more and more.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Andy says bet the hopper tomorrow.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    good friends with Maria Borell, trainer of runhappy. We have run around a few times when i have been in lexington. what a success story she is. i promise you 2 years ago, she was barely making it. she was working at a small farm and i think she had like one mare. i went and picked her up from the farm and i really didnt know how she was making it money wise. and boom. runhappy gets taken away from his trainer and jmac gives her a shot and bam. i would love to post a couple of pictures on here if i knew how. maria is very very very confident, but as im sure any of us would be very nervous. this is literally like her only horse and she is in the worlds fastest race with who i consider the favorite. his works over the strip the last week have been nothing short of unbelievable.

    My buddies from Lexington have been at the track for weeks on end and they report that RUNHAPPY is ready to fire a big race! If I'm not mistaken, this is the only BC mount for Edgar Prado? My how times have changed? Anyway, this Maria Borell story is the kind of story that books are written about and movies made(remember this in a few years). Interesting to note that Runhappy is in the hands of Cordell Anderson when he is heading to and from the track. You may not know the name, but Cordell Anderson has had his hands on the world's best horses as he is the Keeneland Sales person who leads horses into the sales ring. Great story and I'm pulling for Runhappy in a big way, on a personal level and a economic one as well. Only on BC day will we get as much as 3-1 or 7/2 on this speedster.

    Other notes from Lexington on Golden Horn. My pals say that this Euro is an absolute physical specimen! Word is he loves it in Kentucky and is very happy and ready to go. If you can catch the video on Blood-horse watch him as he goes on to the turf training track. He looks every person and horse right in the eye and gives them that look of superiority! He will be 3/5 but still, he is really special!
  • kingoftherapidkingoftherapid Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    i might be up there at some point on saturday early afternoon. where are you going to be at the track??
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I don't think the Jockey Club is open, so I'll be hanging out on the slab in the big room. I'll probably go ahead and splurge and pay the $2 for a desk! Bringing the wife so she will be in and out of the casino and I'll be somewhere in the big room? Look for me and I'll do likewise!
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Juvy Turf: #4 Shogun W. #1 Dressed in Hermes P&S
    Mile: #1 Red Vine ATB
    Juvy FT: #7 Sapphire Kitten ATB
    Distaff: #8 Curlina ATB
    Marathon:#13 BailoutBobby ATB

    May The HORSE Be With All of You This Weekend

    T.G.

    P.S.
    Yes,I'm shootin' for the Fence!:p
  • TurferGirlTurferGirl Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    TurferGirl wrote: »
    Juvy Turf: #4 Shogun W. #1 Dressed in Hermes P&S..-$60
    Mile: #1 Red Vine ATB..-$26
    Juvy FT: #7 Sapphire Kitten ATB..-$60
    Distaff: #8 Curlina ATB..+$10
    Marathon:#13 BailoutBobby ATB..+146

    May The HORSE Be With All of You This Weekend

    T.G.

    P.S.
    Yes,I'm shootin' for the Fence!:p


    *Its Gotta Be Better Tomorrow.
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    I don't think the Jockey Club is open, so I'll be hanging out on the slab in the big room. I'll probably go ahead and splurge and pay the $2 for a desk! Bringing the wife so she will be in and out of the casino and I'll be somewhere in the big room? Look for me and I'll do likewise!

    Wrong again---Club is open so I'll be up there at my usual table in the bar. Come up or call--I'm going over around 9:30 or so.

    Never thought Liam"s Map was going to get racing room today. Boy, when he did he was really something! Ran like a 1/2 horse should!
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Yeah, so he freaked... Makes me think plecther knows how good APbteally is......
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    fbwinners wrote: »
    Also a little bird told me Swipe in coming into this race very similar to Texas Red for Keith. His last work was much better than the time shows. If he gets the pace, he will be moving like a freight train down the lane, 15-1 ML and Victor in the irons is very nice. Also make note Victor was up for that last work as well. Clean trip down the lane!


    Big Run down the lane, pays $25.00 place / $13.00 show!!
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited October 2015
    Easy exacta too FB.


    Here's my little shot...

    $84.00
    Today, 12:32 PM
    P4 | Race 8 | Breeders Cup Keeneland# 3,4,5,7,9,11,12 / 3,7,9,12,13,14 / 1,9 / 4,9
  • n---cn---c Junior Member
    edited October 2015
    and this year, same way, and you get good odds on due to Turf and large fields... next year, going blindly with Chad Brown, does not matter how the horse looks on paper, on top and second on BC card day, pk3, db, excata, you name it.
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